6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Sep 2010  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/11/2010   
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ANALYSIS


PRELIMINARY:

September quarter 2010 (+0.1%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities increased 0.1% in the September quarter 2010. This result followed five consecutive quarters of quarterly increases in the eight capital cities index. Through the year to September quarter 2010, the index increased 11.5%.

The small positive movement in the September quarter 2010 was the result of increases in Melbourne (+2.7%), Perth (+0.4%) and Darwin (+0.3%), which were offset by decreases in the other capital cities: Sydney (-0.9%), Brisbane (-2.1%), Adelaide (-1.4%), Hobart (-1.4%) and Canberra (-0.4%).

The preliminary result for Melbourne (+2.7%) was the lowest quarterly rate of increase in the index for that city in the past six quarters. The movement through the year to September quarter 2010 (+18.8%) continued the decreasing rate of through the year movements since the peak in March quarter 2010 (revised to +26.3% from +27.0%). Median prices in Melbourne increased across most clusters, although clusters with median prices below $500 000 contributed the least to the capital city increase.

The preliminary result for Sydney (-0.9%) was the first decrease in the index since March quarter 2009, and followed five quarters of price increases. The movement through the year to September quarter 2010 (+11.0%) continued the decreasing rate of through the year movements since the peak in March quarter 2010 (revised to +19.5% from +21.4%). Median prices in Sydney decreased across almost all clusters, with the exception of clusters with median prices between $400 000 and $700 000.


REVISED:

June Quarter 2010 (+2.0%)

The price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities increased by 2.0% in the June quarter 2010. This was revised from a preliminary estimated increase of 3.1%. The through the year movement has been revised from an estimated increase of 18.4% to an estimated increase of 16.3%.

The revision to the preliminary estimate for Sydney was the main contributor to the revision of the eight capital cities result. The quarterly movement in the price index for Sydney was revised from a preliminary estimate of +4.9% to a preliminary estimate of +2.8%. Preliminary estimates are based on a combination of mortgage lenders' data and valuers-general data available at that point in time. There was a lower number of observations in the March quarter 2010, and in addition, there was a limited amount of valuers-general data available in some clusters. As a result, some cluster medians were not representative and the movements were not indicative of those derived in the subsequent quarter. Refer to paragraphs 20 to 22 in the Explanatory Notes for further detail.

Median prices increased across almost all clusters in Sydney in the June quarter 2010, with the index movement driven by clusters with median prices between $650 000 and $1 000 000.

Melbourne (+3.2%, revised from +3.6%) and Sydney (+2.8%, revised from +4.9%) were the largest contributors to the eight capital cities result in the June quarter 2010. Adelaide (+2.5%, revised from +3.2%) and, to a lesser extent, Brisbane (+0.3% unrevised) and Darwin (+1.5%, revised from +2.8%) also made positive contributions. Canberra (-0.1%, revised from +2.1%), Hobart (-2.4%, revised from +0.1%) and Perth (-0.2%, revised from +0.4%) made small negative contributions to the eight capital cities result.


FINAL:

March Quarter 2010 (+3.4%)

The change in the established house price index for the weighted average of the eight capital cities for the March quarter 2010 was revised from a second estimate of +4.2% to a final estimate of +3.4%. The movement in the index through the year to March quarter 2010 was revised from an estimated increase of 19.7% to an increase of 18.8%.

Melbourne (+5.2%, revised from +5.7%) and Sydney (+3.3%, revised from +5.0%) were the largest contributors to the eight capital cities result. The other capital cities all made positive contributions: Perth (+3.3%, revised from +3.2%), Brisbane (+1.3%, unrevised), Canberra (+4.7%, revised from +5.3%), Adelaide (+1.3%, revised from +2.3%), Hobart (+2.1%, revised from +2.3%) and Darwin (+0.8%, unrevised).

The revision to the preliminary estimate for Sydney was the main contributor to the revision of the eight capital cities result for the March quarter 2010, for the reasons outlined above for June quarter 2010.