6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Dec 2010  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/02/2011   
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ANALYSIS


PRELIMINARY:

December quarter 2010 (+0.7%)

The preliminary price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities increased 0.7% in the December quarter 2010. This result followed a fall in the revised index for September quarter 2010 (-0.3%). Through the year to December quarter 2010, the index increased 5.8%. This was the lowest through the year increase since September quarter 2008 (+1.4%).

The positive movement in the December quarter 2010 was the result of increases in Sydney (+1.6%), Melbourne (+1.3%), Brisbane (+0.7%), Adelaide (+1.1%), Canberra (+1.9%), and Hobart (+1.1%). These increases were offset by a decrease in Perth (-3.2%). Darwin (0.0%) recorded no change in the December quarter 2010.

The preliminary estimate for Sydney (+1.6%) was the lowest quarterly rate of increase since December 2006 quarter (+0.4%). Across the price range in December quarter 2010, median prices in some clusters increased while others decreased. Most of the positive contributions to the capital city quarterly increase were concentrated in clusters with median prices of $1 500 000 and above, and $400 000 and below. The movement for Sydney through the year to December quarter 2010 (+7.4%) was the lowest through the year increase since September quarter 2009 (+6.1%).

The preliminary estimate for Melbourne (+1.3%) was the seventh consecutive quarter of increases in the index. Across the price range, median prices in some clusters increased while others decreased. Most of the positive contributions to the capital city increase were concentrated in clusters with median prices above $900 000 and below $460 000. The movement through the year to December quarter 2010 (+10.8%) was a return to the rate of through the year increase in September 2009 quarter (+10.9%), and follows four quarters of through the year increases greater than 15%.

The preliminary estimate for Perth (-3.2%) was the largest quarterly decrease in the series which commenced in 2002. This was the third consecutive quarter of decreases in the established house price index for Perth, following the revision to the September quarter 2010 result (-1.8%). Median prices decreased across almost all clusters in Perth this quarter, with the index movement driven by clusters with median prices below $1 000 000. The index decreased 2.0% through the year to December quarter 2010. This was the first through the year decrease since June quarter 2009 (-2.9%).


REVISED:

September Quarter 2010 (-0.3%)

The price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities decreased by 0.3% in the September quarter 2010. This was revised from a preliminary estimated increase of 0.1%. The through the year movement has been revised from an estimated increase of 11.5% to an estimated increase of 10.8%.

The revision to the preliminary estimates for Melbourne and Perth were the main contributors to the revision of the weighted average of the eight capital cities preliminary estimate. The quarterly movement in the price index for Melbourne was revised from a preliminary estimate of +2.7% to a preliminary estimate of +1.0%. Preliminary estimates are based on a combination of mortgage lenders' data and valuers-general data available at that point in time. Data provision issues have been experienced in the December quarter 2010, which have impacted on September quarter 2010 revised estimates. Processes have been applied to minimise possible biases to the dataset; however, the estimate for Melbourne September quarter 2010 should be used with caution.

The quarterly movement in the price index for Perth was revised from a preliminary estimate of +0.4% to a preliminary estimate of -1.8%. As more data became available, the additional observations for the September quarter 2010 resulted in larger median price falls or lower median price increases across most clusters.

Perth (-1.8%, revised from +0.4%), Brisbane (-1.6%, revised from -2.1%), and Sydney (-0.3%, revised from -0.9%) were the largest contributors to the eight capital cities result in the September quarter 2010. Adelaide (-0.9%, revised from -1.4%) and, to a lesser extent, Darwin (-0.5%, revised from +0.3%) also made negative contributions. Melbourne (+1.0%, revised from +2.7%), Canberra (+0.2%, revised from -0.4%) and Hobart (+0.3%, revised from -1.4%) made positive contributions to the eight capital cities result.


FINAL:

June Quarter 2010 (+1.8%)

The change in the established house price index for the weighted average of the eight capital cities for the June quarter 2010 was revised from a second estimate of +2.0% to a final estimate of +1.8%. The movement in the index through the year to June quarter 2010 was revised from an estimated increase of 16.3% to an increase of 16.0%.

Sydney (+2.7%, revised from +2.8%) and Melbourne (+2.9%, revised from +3.2%) were the largest contributors to the eight capital cities result. Adelaide (+1.9%, revised from +2.5%), Brisbane (+0.3%, unrevised), and Darwin (+1.5%, unrevised) also made positive contributions. These increases were offset by decreases in Hobart (-2.4%, unrevised), Perth (-0.2%, unrevised), and Canberra (-0.4%, revised from -0.1%).