6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Sep 2015 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 28/10/2015   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE



CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



HOUSING (+0.6%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are property rates and charges (+4.6%) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.7%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in electricity (-1.4%) following the Australian Energy Regulator's decision to lower the network charges for electricity distribution across a number of States and Territories.

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 2.7%. The main contributors to the rise are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+4.3%) and rents (+1.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group fell 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is electricity (-3.4%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.7%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.3%)

The main contributors to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter are tobacco (+2.1%) and beer (+1.5%). The increase in tobacco is mainly due to the effects of the federal excise tax increase effective from 1 September 2015.

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 5.0%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+10.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+1.6%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+0.8%)

The main contributor to the rise in the recreation and culture group this quarter is international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.6%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-0.9%).

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 1.1%. The main contributors to the rise are other recreational, sporting and cultural services (+5.7%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+2.6%), which is partially offset by a fall in audio, visual and computing equipment (-7.8%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (July for travel in September) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (August for travel in September).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group fell 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is audio, visual and computing equipment (-3.3%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.8%)

The main contributors to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter are child care (+4.0%) and household textiles (+5.3%).

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 1.8%. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+9.4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+3.0%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-2.0%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-2.0%).

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 4.1%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-4.3%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-1.1%)

The main contributor to the fall in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is accessories (-2.7%) and garments (-0.8%).

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 1.0%. The main contributor to the fall is garments for women (-2.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 1.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is accessories (-3.3%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.5%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+1.1%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 2.0%. The main contributor to the rise is other financial services (+2.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+0.9%).


HEALTH GROUP (+0.3%)

The main contributor to the rise in the health group this quarter is pharmaceutical products (+0.7%) and medical and hospital services (+0.2%). The rise in pharmaceutical products is due to changes introduced under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme Access and Sustainability Package. The rise is partially offset by a fall in therapeutic appliances and equipment (-1.7%).

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 4.8%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+6.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.9%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+0.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter is fruit (+8.2%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in vegetables (-5.9%).

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.2%. The main contributors to the rise are restaurant meals (+2.0%) and takeaway and fast foods (+2.2%). The rise is partially offset by falls in vegetables (-6.2%) and fruit (-3.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group recorded no movement this quarter.


TRANSPORT GROUP (+0.1%)

The main contributors to the rise in the transport group this quarter are other services in respect of motor vehicles (+1.7%) and motor vehicles (+1.1%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in automotive fuel (-1.7%).

Automotive fuel rose in May (+3.5%) and June (+2.7%), before falling in July (-1.8%), August (-3.0%) and September (-2.3%). All fuel types recorded decreases this quarter.

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Diagram: TRANSPORT GROUP (+0.1%)

Over the last twelve months, the transport group fell 2.2%. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-9.8%). The fall is partially offset by rises in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (+2.9%) and other services in respect of motor vehicles (+2.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-1.7%).


EDUCATION GROUP (+0.2%)

The main contributor to the rise in the education group this quarter is tertiary education (+0.1%) due to an increase in TAFE fees.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 5.5%. The main contributors to the rise are tertiary education (+5.8%) and secondary education (+4.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.3% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are secondary education (+1.5%) and tertiary education (+1.3%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI rose 0.3% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 0.1% rise in tradable goods component are fruit and tobacco. The most significant offsetting falls in the tradable goods component are vegetables and automotive fuel. The rise in the tradable services component of 4.6% is driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.4% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.4% mainly due to new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers and beer. The most significant offsetting fall is electricity. The non-tradable services component rose 0.4% mainly due to property rates. The most significant offsetting fall is telecommunication equipment and services.

Over the last twelve months, the tradables component fell 0.3%, while the non-tradables component rose 2.6%. This compares to a fall of 0.3% and a rise of 2.6% respectively over the twelve months to the previous quarter.

In seasonally adjusted terms the tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.2% this quarter, while the non-tradables component rose 0.4%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.1% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.5%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.3% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the June quarter 2015. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 2.1%, compared to a rise of 2.2% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2015.

The weighted median rose 0.3% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.5% in the June quarter 2015. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 2.2%, compared to a rise of 2.4% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2015.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Jun Qtr 2015 to Sep Qtr 2015
Jun Qtr 2015 to Sep Qtr 2015
%
%

All groups CPI
0.5
0.1
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
0.1
0.0
Alcohol and tobacco
1.3
1.1
Clothing and footwear
-1.1
-1.6
Housing
0.6
-0.1
Furnishings, household equipment and services
0.8
0.3
Health
0.3
1.6
Transport
0.1
-0.1
Communication(a)
-2.0
-2.0
Recreation and culture
0.8
-0.2
Education
0.2
1.3
Insurance and financial services
0.5
0.5
International trade exposure series
Tradables
0.3
-0.2
Non-tradables
0.4
0.4

(a) not seasonally adjusted


A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.