6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Mar 2016 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/04/2016   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE

CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



TRANSPORT GROUP (-2.5%)

The main contributor to the fall in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (-10.0%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in motor vehicles (+0.7%).

Automotive fuel fell in January (-5.5%) and February (-5.4%), and rose in March (+1.8%). Falls in world oil prices continue to influence domestic fuel prices. All fuel types, excluding LPG, recorded decreases.

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre
Graph: AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre


Over the last twelve months, the transport group fell 0.5%. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-6.4%). This is partially offset by rises in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (+2.6%) and motor vehicles (+1.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell 2.7% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-10.0%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (-1.0%)

The main contributors to the fall in the recreation and culture group this quarter are international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.0%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-1.9%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in other recreational, sporting and cultural services (+1.8%).

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 0.1%. The main contributors to the rise are international holiday travel and accommodation (+3.5%) and other recreational, sporting and cultural services (+3.9%), which is partially offset by a fall in domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-2.6%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (January for travel in March) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (February for travel in March).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group fell 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is audio visual and computer equipment (-2.7%)


EDUCATION GROUP (+3.1%)

The main contributors to the rise in the education group this quarter are secondary education (+4.6%) and preschool and primary education (+4.1%) following the commencement of the new school year.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 3.3%. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+4.6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group fell 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is tertiary education (-1.8%).


HEALTH GROUP (+1.9%)

The main contributors to the rise in the health group this quarter are medical and hospital services (+1.6%) and pharmaceutical products (+4.8%). These rises are a result of the cyclical reduction in the proportion of patients who qualify for subsidies under the Medicare Benefits Scheme (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), as well as the co-payment indexation for PBS at the start of each calendar year. The safety net threshold amount for both government subsidy schemes are reset on 1 January annually, and the co-payment indexation for PBS is scheduled on the same date.

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 4.6%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+6.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 0.4% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+0.8%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (-2.6%)

The main contributor to the fall in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is accessories (-4.3%), and is due to post Christmas sales.

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.8%. The main contributors to the movement are footwear for women (-5.0%) and footwear for men (-3.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.8% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is accessories (-3.8%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+0.9%)

The main contributors to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter are beer (+1.3%) and tobacco (+0.8%). Increases to beer and tobacco prices are mainly due to the federal excise tax biannual indexation. The increase was effective from 1 February 2016.

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 6.1%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+13.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+2.4%).


HOUSING (+0.3%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are gas and other household fuels (+3.0%) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.2%).

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 1.7%. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+2.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.3% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+0.6%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.5%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-1.7%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in postal services (+0.6%) due to an increase in the price of stamps.

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 6.4%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-6.7%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+1.7%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 2.3%. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+5.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+1.5%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (-0.4%)

The main contributors to the fall in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter are furniture (-1.6%) and household textiles (-4.1%).

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 2.0%. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+8.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is furniture (+2.5%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (-0.2%)

The main contributor to the fall in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter is fruit (-11.1%). The fall in fruit is due to plentiul supplies of both year-round and summer fruit. The fall is partially offset by a rise in beef and veal (+3.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group recorded no movement (0.0%). Rises in takeaway and fast foods (+2.2%) and beef and veal (+13.2%) are offset by falls in fruit (-6.9%) and vegetables (-4.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group recorded no movement this quarter (0.0%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI fell 1.4% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributor to the fall of 1.3% in the tradable goods component is automotive fuel. The most significant offsetting rise in the tradable goods component is pharmaceutical products. The fall in the tradable services component of 2.0% is driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.4% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 0.4% rise in the non-tradable goods component are gas and other household fuels, and beer. The most significant offsetting fall in the non-tradable goods component is electricity. The rise in the non-tradable services component of 0.5% is driven by secondary education and medical and hospital services. The most significant offsetting falls in the non-tradable services component are domestic holiday travel and accommodation and telecommunication equipment and services.

Over the last twelve months, the tradables component rose 0.6%, while the non-tradables component rose 1.7%. This compares to a rise of 0.8% and a rise of 2.3% respectively over the twelve months to the previous quarter.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI fell 0.7% this quarter, while the non-tradables component rose 0.2%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted fell 0.1% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a fall of 0.2%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.2% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.6% last quarter. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 1.7%, compared to a rise of 2.1% over the twelve months to last quarter.

The weighted median rose 0.1% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.5% last quarter. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.4%, compared to a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to last quarter.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Dec Qtr 2015 to Mar Qtr 2016
Dec Qtr 2015 to Mar Qtr 2016
%
%

All groups CPI
-0.2
-0.1
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
-0.2
0.0
Alcohol and tobacco
0.9
1.5
Clothing and footwear
-2.6
-0.8
Housing
0.3
0.3
Furnishings, household equipment and services
-0.4
0.6
Health
1.9
0.4
Transport
-2.5
-2.7
Communication(a)
-1.5
-1.5
Recreation and culture
-1.0
-0.1
Education
3.1
-0.5
Insurance and financial services
0.6
0.6
International trade exposure series
Tradables
-1.4
-0.7
Non-tradables
0.4
0.2

(a) not seasonally adjusted


A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.