6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Dec 2015 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/01/2016   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE




CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+2.7%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+7.4%). The rise in tobacco is due to flow on effects from the federal excise tax increase effective from 1 September 2015.

Over the last twelve months, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 6.0%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+13.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+4.5%).


RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+1.6%)

The main contributors to the rise in the recreation and culture group this quarter are domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+5.9%) and international holiday travel and accommodation (+2.4%), due to the October school holiday period and the lead up to the peak holiday period. The rise is partially offset by a fall in audio, visual and computing equipment (-1.8%).

Over the last twelve months, the recreation and culture group rose 1.7%. The main contributors to the rise are domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+2.7%) and other recreational, sporting and cultural services (+5.5%), which is partially offset by a fall in audio, visual and computing equipment (-4.5%).

In the CPI, airfares are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the travel is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (October for travel in December) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (November for travel in December).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is international holiday travel and accommodation (+1.4%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (-1.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (-5.7%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (+1.7%).

Automotive fuel fell in October (-2.0%), November (-0.8%) and December (-2.1%). Falls in world oil prices continue to influence domestic fuel prices. All fuel types, excluding LPG, recorded decreases.

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the last fifteen months.

Diagram: TRANSPORT GROUP (–1.4%)

Over the last twelve months, the transport group fell 1.4%. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-8.7%). The fall is partially offset by a rise in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (+3.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group fell 1.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is automotive fuel (-5.7%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-2.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-2.4%).

Over the last twelve months, the communication group fell 6.3%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-6.4%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (+1.6%)

The main contributor to the rise in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is accessories (+4.5%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in footwear for men (-0.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the clothing and footwear group rose 0.5%. The main contributors to the rise are accessories (+5.8%) and garments for men (+1.3%). The rise is partially offset by falls in footwear for women (-5.7%) and garments for women (-0.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group rose 2.1% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are accessories (+6.9%) and garments for women (+1.0%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (+0.6%)

The main contributors to the rise in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter are furniture (+1.0%) and household textiles (+2.2%).

Over the last twelve months, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 1.9%. The main contributor to the rise is child care (+8.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group rose 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is glassware, tableware and household utensils (+1.9%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+0.3%)

The main contributors to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are take away and fast foods (+1.3%) and vegetables (+1.9%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in fruit (-2.6%).

Over the last twelve months, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.4%. The main contributors to the rise are take away and fast foods (+2.7%) and beef and veal (+11.6%). The rise is partially offset by falls in fruit (-3.7%) and vegetables (-2.7%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose by 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is take away and fast foods (+1.3%), and is partially offset by a fall in fruit (-4.5%).


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.8%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is insurance (+2.1%).

Over the last twelve months, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.8%. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+3.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.7% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+1.4%).


HEALTH GROUP (-0.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the health group this quarter is pharmaceutical products (-2.2%), which fell mainly due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers exceeding the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) safety net. The fall is partially offset by a rise in therapeutic appliances and equipment (+1.5%).

Over the last twelve months, the health group rose 5.3%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+6.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 1.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.2%).


HOUSING (+0.1%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are rents (+0.2%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.1%) and maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+0.5%). The rise is partially offset by a fall in gas and other household fuels (-1.2%).

Over the last twelve months, the housing group rose 2.2%. The main contributors to the rise are new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+3.3%) and rents (+1.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group rose 0.4% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is water and sewerage (+1.6%).


EDUCATION GROUP (0.0%)

The education group recorded no change this quarter.

Over the last twelve months, the education group rose 5.5%. The main contributor to the rise is tertiary education (+5.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is secondary education (+1.3%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component (see Table 8) of the All groups CPI rose 0.5% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market. The tradables component represents approximately 40% of the weight of the CPI. The most significant contributors to the 0.3% rise in tradable goods component are tobacco, accessories and vegetables. The most significant offsetting falls in the tradable goods component are automotive fuel, fruit and wine. The rise in the tradable services component of 2.4% is driven by international holiday travel and accommodation.

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.4% this quarter. Prices for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures. The non-tradables component represents approximately 60% of the weight of the CPI. The non-tradable goods component was flat (0.0%) this quarter. A rise in take away and fast foods was offset by a fall in waters, soft drinks and juices. The non-tradable services component rose 0.5% mainly due to domestic holiday travel and accommodation. The most significant offsetting fall is telecommunication equipment and services.

Over the last twelve months, the tradables component rose 0.8%, while the non-tradables component rose 2.3%. This compares to a fall of 0.3% and a rise of 2.6% respectively over the twelve months to the previous quarter.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.2% this quarter, while the non-tradables component rose 0.4%.

A detailed description of which expenditure classes are classified as tradable and non-tradable in the 16th series is shown in Appendix 1 of the September quarter 2011 issue of Consumer Price Index, Australia (cat. no 6401.0).


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All groups CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.4% this quarter, compared to the original All groups CPI which recorded a rise of 0.4%.

The trimmed mean rose 0.6% this quarter, compared to a rise of 0.3% in the September quarter 2015. Over the last twelve months, the trimmed mean rose 2.1%, compared to a rise of 2.1% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2015.

The weighted median rose 0.5% this quarter, compared to a revised rise of 0.4% in the September quarter 2015. Over the last twelve months, the weighted median rose 1.9%, compared to a revised rise of 2.1% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2015.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Sep Qtr 2015 to Dec Qtr 2015
Sep Qtr 2015 to Dec Qtr 2015
%
%

All groups CPI
0.4
0.4
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
0.3
0.1
Alcohol and tobacco
2.7
1.6
Clothing and footwear
1.6
2.1
Housing
0.1
0.4
Furnishings, household equipment and services
0.6
0.6
Health
-0.4
1.2
Transport
-1.4
-1.2
Communication(a)
-2.4
-2.4
Recreation and culture
1.6
0.5
Education
0.0
1.2
Insurance and financial services
0.8
0.7
International trade exposure series
Tradables
0.5
0.2
Non-tradables
0.4
0.4

(a) not seasonally adjusted


A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.