Analysis and comments
Balance on goods and services
In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $6,341m in October 2019, a decrease of $229m on the surplus in September 2019.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4,502m in October 2019, a decrease of $2,345m on the surplus in September 2019.
Goods and services summary(a), Seasonally adjusted and Trend |
|
| | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
Seasonally adjusted |
|
Balance on goods and services | 6 591 | 6 847 | 4 502 | -2 345 | -34 |
Credits | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | 41 766 | 42 955 | 40 750 | -2 205 | -5 |
| | Total goods | 33 232 | 34 348 | 32 100 | -2 248 | -7 |
| | | Rural goods(b) | 3 751 | 4 024 | 4 138 | 114 | 3 |
| | | Non-rural goods(b) | 27 332 | 27 617 | 25 907 | -1 710 | -6 |
| | | Net exports of goods under merchanting(c) | 15 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 93 |
| | | Non-monetary gold(c) | 2 134 | 2 692 | 2 026 | -666 | -25 |
| | Total services | 8 534 | 8 606 | 8 651 | 45 | 1 |
Debits | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | -35 176 | -36 108 | -36 248 | 140 | - |
| | Total goods | -26 466 | -27 380 | -27 560 | 180 | 1 |
| | | Consumption goods | -8 726 | -8 836 | -9 170 | 334 | 4 |
| | | Capital goods | -6 032 | -6 737 | -6 585 | -152 | -2 |
| | | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -10 608 | -11 080 | -11 336 | 256 | 2 |
| | | Non-monetary gold(c) | -1 100 | -727 | -469 | -258 | -35 |
| | Total services | -8 709 | -8 728 | -8 688 | -40 | - |
Trend(d) |
|
Balance on goods and services | 6 813 | 6 570 | 6 341 | -229 | -3 |
Credits | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | 42 171 | 42 106 | 42 024 | -82 | - |
| | Total goods | 33 631 | 33 515 | 33 394 | -121 | - |
| | | Rural goods(b) | 3 873 | 3 918 | 3 974 | 56 | 1 |
| | | Non-rural goods(b) | 27 456 | 27 196 | 26 978 | -218 | -1 |
| | | Net exports of goods under merchanting | 17 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 5 |
| | | Non-monetary gold | 2 285 | 2 382 | 2 421 | 39 | 2 |
| | Total services | 8 540 | 8 591 | 8 631 | 40 | - |
Debits | | | | | |
| Total goods and services | -35 358 | -35 536 | -35 683 | 147 | - |
| | Total goods | -26 699 | -26 852 | -26 986 | 134 | - |
| | | Consumption goods | -8 793 | -8 870 | -8 935 | 65 | 1 |
| | | Capital goods | -6 244 | -6 244 | -6 251 | 7 | - |
| | | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -10 894 | -10 964 | -11 041 | 77 | 1 |
| | | Non-monetary gold | -768 | -774 | -759 | -15 | -2 |
| | Total services | -8 659 | -8 683 | -8 698 | 15 | - |
|
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods. |
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes. |
Exports of goods and services
Between September and October 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $82m to $42,024m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $2,205m (5%) to $40,750m. Non-rural goods fell $1,710m (6%) and non-monetary gold fell $666m (25%). Rural goods rose $114m (3%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $14m (93%). Services credits rose $45m (1%).
Exports of goods
Goods credits
Goods credits, Seasonally adjusted |
|
| | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
Total goods credits | 33 232 | 34 348 | 32 100 | -2 248 | -7 |
| General merchandise | 31 083 | 31 641 | 30 045 | -1 596 | -5 |
| | Rural goods | 3 751 | 4 024 | 4 138 | 114 | 3 |
| | | Meat and meat preparations | 1 394 | 1 434 | 1 487 | 53 | 4 |
| | | Cereal grains and cereal preparations | 438 | 530 | 558 | 28 | 5 |
| | | Wool and sheepskins | 186 | 218 | 237 | 19 | 9 |
| | | Other rural(a) | 1 734 | 1 842 | 1 856 | 14 | 1 |
| | Non-rural goods | 27 332 | 27 617 | 25 907 | -1 710 | -6 |
| | | Metal ores and minerals(b) | 11 515 | 11 634 | 10 369 | -1 265 | -11 |
| | | Coal, coke and briquettes(c) | 5 243 | 4 885 | 4 646 | -239 | -5 |
| | | Other mineral fuels(b)(d) | 5 121 | 5 481 | 5 134 | -347 | -6 |
| | | Metals (excl. non-monetary gold) | 1 027 | 1 155 | 990 | -165 | -14 |
| | | Machinery | 967 | 978 | 1 117 | 139 | 14 |
| | | Transport equipment | 328 | 402 | 443 | 41 | 10 |
| | | Other manufactures | 2 059 | 2 046 | 2 180 | 134 | 7 |
| | | Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a) | 930 | 898 | 890 | -8 | -1 |
| | | Goods procured in ports by carriers(d) | 142 | 138 | 138 | - | - |
| Net exports of goods under merchanting(e) | 15 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 93 |
| Non-monetary gold(e) | 2 134 | 2 692 | 2 026 | -666 | -25 |
|
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural. |
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series. |
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series. |
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
Rural goods
In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $56m (1%) to $3,974m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $114m (3%) to $4,138m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- meat and meat preparations, up $53m (4%)
- cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $28m (5%).
Non-rural goods
In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $218m (1%) to $26,978m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,710m (6%) to $25,907m.
The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- metal ores and minerals, down $1,265m (11%)
- other mineral fuels, down $347m (6%)
- coal, coke and briquettes, down $239m (5%)
- metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $165m (14%).
Partly offsetting these falls were:
- machinery, up $139m (14%)
- other manufactures, up $134m (7%).
For price and volume details, see the
Selected commodities section.
Net exports of goods under merchanting
In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (5%) to $20m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $14m (93%) to $29m.
Non-monetary gold
In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $39m (2%) to $2,421m.
In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $666m (25%) to $2,026m.
Exports of services
Services credits
Services credits, Seasonally adjusted |
|
| | | | | | Change in: |
| | | Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 |
| | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
Total services credits | 8 534 | 8 606 | 8 651 | 45 | 1 |
| Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a) | 4 | 4 | 4 | - | - |
| Transport | 664 | 671 | 675 | 4 | 1 |
| | Passenger(b) | 271 | 275 | 275 | - | - |
| | Freight(c) | 23 | 22 | 24 | 2 | 9 |
| | Other | 259 | 260 | 263 | 3 | 1 |
| | Postal and courier services(d) | 112 | 114 | 114 | - | - |
| Travel | 5 556 | 5 609 | 5 676 | 67 | 1 |
| Other services | 2 309 | 2 322 | 2 297 | -25 | -1 |
Memorandum item | | | | | |
| Tourism related services credits(e) | 5 827 | 5 884 | 5 950 | 66 | 1 |
|
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport. |
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport. |
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes. |
In trend terms, services credits rose $40m to $8,631m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $45m (1%) to $8,651m.
The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $67m (1%).
Partly offsetting this rise was other services, down $25m (1%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $66m (1%) to $5,950m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.
Imports of goods and services
Between September and October 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $147m to $35,683m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $140m to $36,248m. Consumption goods rose $334m (4%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $256m (2%). Non-monetary gold fell $258m (35%) and capital goods fell $152m (2%). Services debits fell $40m.
Imports of goods
Goods debits
Goods debits(a), Seasonally adjusted |
|
| | | | | | | Change in: |
| | | | Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 |
| | | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
Total goods debits | -26 466 | -27 380 | -27 560 | 180 | 1 |
| General merchandise | -25 366 | -26 653 | -27 091 | 438 | 2 |
| | Consumption goods | -8 726 | -8 836 | -9 170 | 334 | 4 |
| | | Food and beverages, mainly for consumption | -1 452 | -1 391 | -1 462 | 71 | 5 |
| | | Household electrical items | -485 | -493 | -518 | 25 | 5 |
| | | Non-industrial transport equipment | -1 939 | -2 006 | -2 163 | 157 | 8 |
| | | Textiles, clothing and footwear | -1 528 | -1 601 | -1 618 | 17 | 1 |
| | | Toys, books and leisure goods | -552 | -551 | -564 | 13 | 2 |
| | | Consumption goods n.e.s. | -2 771 | -2 794 | -2 845 | 51 | 2 |
| | Capital goods | -6 032 | -6 737 | -6 585 | -152 | -2 |
| | | Machinery and industrial equipment | -1 995 | -1 946 | -2 071 | 125 | 6 |
| | | ADP equipment | -891 | -934 | -1 020 | 86 | 9 |
| | | Telecommunications equipment | -1 191 | -1 314 | -1 285 | -29 | -2 |
| | | Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c) | -294 | -366 | -431 | 65 | 18 |
| | | Industrial transport equipment n.e.s. | -982 | -937 | -863 | -74 | -8 |
| | | Capital goods n.e.s.(d) | -680 | -1 240 | -915 | -325 | -26 |
| | Intermediate and other merchandise goods | -10 608 | -11 080 | -11 336 | 256 | 2 |
| | | Food and beverages, mainly for industry | -166 | -181 | -183 | 2 | 1 |
| | | Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d) | -218 | -120 | -165 | 45 | 38 |
| | | Fuels and lubricants(c) | -3 037 | -3 275 | -3 484 | 209 | 6 |
| | | Parts for transport equipment | -1 045 | -1 162 | -1 155 | -7 | -1 |
| | | Parts for ADP equipment | -62 | -63 | -62 | -1 | -2 |
| | | Other parts for capital goods | -1 589 | -1 638 | -1 731 | 93 | 6 |
| | | Organic and inorganic chemicals | -251 | -263 | -284 | 21 | 8 |
| | | Paper and paperboard | -197 | -209 | -208 | -1 | - |
| | | Textile yarn and fabrics | -117 | -126 | -126 | - | - |
| | | Iron and steel | -261 | -284 | -285 | 1 | - |
| | | Plastics | -369 | -376 | -388 | 12 | 3 |
| | | Processed industrial supplies n.e.s. | -3 062 | -3 246 | -3 133 | -113 | -3 |
| | | Other merchandise goods(b)(e) | -125 | -28 | -21 | -7 | -25 |
| | | Goods procured in ports by carriers(c) | -108 | -108 | -111 | 3 | 3 |
| Non-monetary gold(c) | -1 100 | -727 | -469 | -258 | -35 |
|
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods. |
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted. |
Consumption goods
In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $65m (1%) to $8,935m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $334m (4%) to $9,170m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- non-industrial transport equipment, up $157m (8%)
- food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $71m (5%)
- consumption goods n.e.s., up $51m (2%).
Capital goods
In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $7m to $6,251m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $152m (2%) to $6,585m.
The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- capital goods n.e.s., down $325m (26%)
- industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $74m (8%).
Partly offsetting these falls were:
- machinery and industrial equipment, up $125m (6%)
- ADP equipment, up $86m (9%)
- civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $65m (18%).
Intermediate and other merchandise goods
In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $77m (1%) to $11,041m.
In seasonally adjusted terms,imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $256m (2%) to $11,336m.
The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- fuels and lubricants, up $209m (6%)
- other parts for capital goods, up $93m (6%).
Partly offsetting these rises was processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $113m (3%).
Non-monetary gold
In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $15m (2%) to $759m.
In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $258m (35%) to $469m.
Imports of services
Services debits
Services debits(a), Seasonally adjusted |
|
| | | | | | Change in: |
| | | Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 |
| | | $m | $m | $m | $m | % |
|
Total services debits | -8 709 | -8 728 | -8 688 | -40 | - |
| Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b) | -173 | -79 | -89 | 10 | 13 |
| Transport | -1 539 | -1 552 | -1 582 | 30 | 2 |
| | Passenger(c) | -654 | -667 | -671 | 4 | 1 |
| | Freight | -793 | -794 | -818 | 24 | 3 |
| | Other(b) | -82 | -81 | -84 | 3 | 4 |
| | Postal and courier services(d)(e) | -10 | -10 | -9 | -1 | -10 |
| Travel | -4 339 | -4 427 | -4 368 | -59 | -1 |
| Other services | -2 658 | -2 670 | -2 649 | -21 | -1 |
Memorandum item | | | | | |
| Tourism related services debits(f) | -4 994 | -5 094 | -5 039 | -55 | -1 |
|
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes. |
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted. |
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport. |
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport. |
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern. |
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes. |
In trend terms, services debits rose $15m to $8,698m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $40m to $8,688m.
The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- travel, down $59m (1%)
- other services, down $21m (1%).
Partly offsetting these falls was transport, up $30m (2%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $55m (1%) to $5,039m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 24% of total goods and services imported.
Selected commodities
Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms |
|
| | Change in: |
| | May 2019 | Jun 2019 | Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 |
| | % | % | % | % | % | % |
Iron ore |
|
Lump | | | | | | |
| Quantity | 20 | -5 | -11 | 15 | -12 | - |
| Unit value | 4 | 7 | 7 | -12 | -1 | -1 |
Fines | | | | | | |
| Quantity | 12 | -2 | -5 | 5 | -3 | -3 |
| Unit value | 6 | 7 | 7 | -5 | -6 | -4 |
Coal |
|
Hard coking | | | | | | |
| Quantity | 27 | 18 | -18 | -1 | -4 | - |
| Unit value | 2 | - | p-5 | -1 | p-7 | p-1 |
Semi-soft | | | | | | |
| Quantity | 3 | 23 | -20 | -7 | -4 | -16 |
| Unit value | 1 | p-4 | -4 | 1 | p - | p-3 |
Thermal | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -3 | 7 | 14 | -16 | -1 | 9 |
| Unit value | 1 | -4 | -8 | 6 | p-4 | p-7 |
Gas |
|
LNG | | | | | | |
| Quantity | -1 | -3 | 13 | 2 | -12 | 3 |
| Unit value | 1 | -5 | 5 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
|
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision |
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series. |
International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the
Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.
Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.
On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between September to October 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:
Iron ore lump, down $31m (1%), with unit values down 1%. Exports to:
- Japan fell $104m (36%), with quantities down 36% and unit values up 1%
- China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) fell $48m (3%), with unit values down 2%
- the Republic of Korea rose $53m (51%), with quantities up 67% and unit values down 10%
- Vietnam rose $42m, with unit values up 36%.
Iron ore fines, down $434m (7%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:
- China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) fell $490m (9%), with quantities down 4% and unit values down 5%
- Indonesia fell $45m (77%), with quantities down 73% and unit values down 15%
- the Republic of Korea rose $117m (40%), with quantities up 31% and unit values up 7%.
Hard coking coal, down $14m (1%), with unit values down 1%. Exports to:
- China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) fell $188m (20%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 6%
- Japan fell $63m (22%), with quantities down 28% and unit values up 8%
- India rose $131m (28%), with quantities up 23% and unit values up 4%
- Netherlands rose $69m (90%), with quantities up 60% and unit values up 19%.
Semi-soft coal, down $152m (19%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:
- Japan fell $115m (34%), with quantities down 28% and unit values down 8%
- the Republic of Korea fell $42m (29%), with quantities down 25% and unit values down 5%
- Taiwan fell $39m (52%), with quantities down 49% and unit values down 7%
- India rose $53m (47%), with quantities up 45% and unit values up 1%.
Thermal coal, up $27m (2%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 7%. Exports to:
- China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) rose $64m (28%), with quantities up 34% and unit values down 4%
- Malaysia rose $44m, with unit values down 6%
- Japan fell $71m (10%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 7%.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $17m, with quantities up 3% and unit values down 3%.
Country breakdown
The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2018-19. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.
TOTAL VALUE OF TWO-WAY TRADE, By major countries 2018-19, Percentage share
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES, By major countries 2018-19
Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component, will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.
Exports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2018-19, these restrictions represented 1.23% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.
Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2018-19, these restrictions represented 1.68% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.
For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26-28.