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EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
2 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 3.2% lower than July.
2 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than July.
2 The percentage changes of 3.2 for visitor arrivals and 3.0 for resident departures were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals and resident departures over the last ten years, respectively.
3 Under concurrent seasonal adjustment, the most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The trend revision is a combined result of the revision of the seasonally adjusted estimates and the revision derived from the use of asymmetric moving averages as future data become available. ABS research shows that about 75% of the total revision to the trend estimate at the current end of the time series is due to the use of different asymmetric moving averages when the original estimate for the next time period becomes available. To assess the reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the "what-if" chart presents trend estimates under two different scenarios for the next time period. The chart shows only the impact due to the changes of the asymmetric moving averages and does not include the unknown impact of revision to seasonal factor estimates that would arise when the original estimate for the next time period becomes available.
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