3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2014 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/08/2014   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2014 (574,100 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with May 2014 (573,300 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 9.5% higher than in June 2013.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia(a)
Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals, last 10 years

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2014. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for June 2013 and June 2014 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Malaysia (31.8%) followed by India (23.5%). The only percentage decrease was recorded for South Korea (2.2%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - June 2014

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May '14 to Jun '14
Jun '13 to Jun '14(b)
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
102.9
101.4
93.4
-0.7
5.3
China
68.5
70.0
45.3
0.3
7.7
Singapore
32.1
32.6
44.3
0.5
15.7
United States of America
44.9
43.2
39.6
-0.7
12.7
Malaysia
28.3
30.5
26.7
2.5
31.8
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
53.9
52.8
25.0
-0.8
3.7
India
16.9
17.2
17.0
2.4
23.5
Japan
27.5
27.6
16.4
0.6
3.7
Indonesia
12.8
12.4
13.8
1.3
12.4
Korea, South
16.3
15.5
12.8
0.9
-2.2

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The July 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than June 2014.
      2 The July 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than June 2014.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia(a)
Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals, future scenarios


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during June 2014 (759,600 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with May 2014 (756,900 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 4.0% higher than in June 2013.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia(a)

Graph: Short-term resident departures


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in June 2014. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for June 2013 and June 2014 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Indonesia (15.4%), followed by Malaysia (14.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for the United Kingdom (7.0%), followed by Thailand (3.5%).



Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - June 2014

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May '14 to Jun '14
Jun '13 to Jun '14(b)
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

Indonesia
90.9
91.5
100.1
1.0
15.4
United States of America
78.0
78.4
93.1
1.0
-2.7
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
44.3
45.9
80.9
0.6
-7.0
New Zealand
99.1
99.4
76.9
-0.3
0.0
Thailand
50.8
49.9
51.0
0.1
-3.5
Fiji
29.1
29.4
33.4
1.5
0.0
Italy
14.8
15.3
30.8
0.7
-0.3
China
33.9
33.9
29.8
0.6
3.2
Singapore
31.0
28.6
27.4
-2.6
8.6
Malaysia
25.9
26.4
25.7
0.1
14.8

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The July 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than June 2014.
      2 The July 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than June 2014.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia(a)
Graph: Short-term resident departures, future scenarios
The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 10,380 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during June 2014, a decrease of 23.6% compared with June 2013 (13,580 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.6%), followed by people born in China (13.5%), New Zealand (11.9%) and the United Kingdom (5.3%).

There were 5,860 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during June 2014, a decrease of 9.4% compared with June 2013 (6,470 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.