3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jan 2017 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/03/2017   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during January 2017 (713,000 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with December 2016 (710,600 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 8.5% higher than in January 2016.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during January 2017. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for January 2016 and January 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for India (15.2%), followed by Japan (13.6%), and Hong Kong (12.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Singapore (-1.3%).



Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - January 2017

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec '16 to Jan '17
Jan '16 to Jan '17
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

China
109.0
111.5
166.1
1.4
11.5
New Zealand
113.2
114.5
87.6
0.1
3.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
60.2
60.9
73.6
0.4
2.4
United States of America
62.0
62.7
59.5
-0.0
10.7
Korea, South
25.3
25.9
32.7
0.6
10.5
Japan
36.7
37.2
28.8
1.4
13.6
Hong Kong
22.0
22.3
22.0
1.8
12.8
Germany
18.0
18.3
20.7
0.9
10.1
Singapore
34.9
34.2
19.1
-1.6
-1.3
India
22.8
22.4
17.9
-0.2
15.2

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The February 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than January 2017.
      2 The February 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than January 2017.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during January 2017 (836,400 movements) increased 0.4% when compared with December 2016 (832,800 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 3.1% higher than in January 2016.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in January 2017. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for January 2016 and January 2017 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (11.5%), followed by Singapore (10.8%), and India and Fiji (both 7.3%).The highest percentage decreases were recorded for Indonesia (-4.7%) and Thailand (-3.1%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - January 2017

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Dec '16 to Jan '17
Jan '16 to Jan '17
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
113.2
114.7
123.6
0.4
3.6
Indonesia
97.2
96.1
91.5
-0.5
-4.7
United States of America
88.6
92.5
74.4
-0.3
2.6
Japan
31.0
30.6
49.0
0.1
5.9
China
41.1
42.2
41.0
2.0
11.5
Thailand
42.4
43.4
37.6
0.3
-3.1
India
27.6
27.4
36.2
0.2
7.3
Singapore
33.5
35.5
34.2
1.4
10.8
Malaysia
21.8
21.8
29.3
0.8
1.1
Fiji
31.3
31.6
27.6
1.1
7.3

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The February 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than January 2017.
      2 The February 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than January 2017.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.