3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Dec 2015 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 12/02/2016   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during December 2015 (652,800 movements) increased 1.0% when compared with November 2015 (646,400 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 11.1% higher than in December 2014.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during December 2015. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for December 2014 and December 2015 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (34.1%), followed by South Korea (24.0%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - December 2015

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov '15 to Dec '15
Dec '14 to Dec '15
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
109.8
109.9
124.2
0.0
4.2
UK, CIs & IOM (b)
58.1
59.5
112.4
0.7
6.0
China
100.3
103.3
93.2
2.6
34.1
United States of America
54.8
55.4
81.0
1.5
12.9
Singapore
35.3
34.9
56.7
0.9
15.2
Malaysia
29.4
30.2
42.8
-0.0
11.1
Japan
30.1
30.1
36.0
1.3
14.3
Korea, South
22.3
23.4
30.3
5.0
24.0
Hong Kong
19.8
20.0
27.4
0.5
17.2
India
19.6
20.0
26.1
0.5
6.1

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The January 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than December 2015.
      2 The January 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than December 2015.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: revisions to short-term visitor arrivals trend estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during December 2015 (809,500 movements) increased 0.6% when compared with November 2015 (804,600 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 5.7% higher than in December 2014.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in December 2015. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for December 2014 and December 2015 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (34.5%), followed by the United Kingdom (15.1%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Thailand (3.0%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - December 2015

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov '15 to Dec '15
Dec '14 to Dec '15
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
108.3
105.6
172.0
0.4
4.8
United States of America
85.2
87.0
106.8
0.1
2.1
Indonesia
96.0
96.9
103.1
1.2
3.5
UK, CIs & IOM (b)
52.5
53.2
68.6
0.1
15.1
India
25.5
28.3
57.1
3.7
10.6
Thailand
44.4
41.6
48.0
-2.1
-3.0
Japan
29.9
30.0
44.9
3.0
34.5
China
36.4
37.6
44.9
1.1
8.6
Singapore
31.1
31.0
36.4
-0.3
2.0
Philippines
17.8
18.5
35.6
-0.5
-1.1

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The January 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than December 2015.
      2 The January 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than December 2015.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: revisions to short-term resident departures trend estimates, Australia
The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 10,390 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during December 2015, a decrease of 11.5% compared with December 2014 (11,740 movements). People born in China accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.7%), followed by people born in India (12.9%), and people born in New Zealand (12.1%).

There were 8,970 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during December 2015, an increase of 0.8% compared with December 2014 (8,900 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.