3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Aug 2016 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/10/2016   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2016 (696,700 movements) increased 0.5% when compared with July 2016 (693,000 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 11.7% higher than in August 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for August 2015 and August 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for South Korea (29.6%), followed by United States of America (23.6%), and Japan (19.6%).


Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - August 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul '16 to Aug '16
Aug '15 to Aug '16
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
113.4
109.8
112.6
0.7
3.0
China
101.9
98.2
93.6
0.5
14.1
Japan
34.0
34.4
51.2
-0.5
19.6
United States of America
62.5
64.1
50.0
1.7
23.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
59.8
59.6
39.5
0.4
4.9
Singapore
37.3
36.5
31.2
-1.1
10.3
Malaysia
33.3
33.4
30.4
1.1
13.9
Hong Kong
21.2
21.5
22.1
1.3
11.3
Korea, South
23.6
23.7
21.4
0.1
29.6
India
22.3
23.0
19.8
1.2
17.1

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The September 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than August 2016.
      2 The September 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than August 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during August 2016 (834,300 movements) increased 0.6% when compared with July 2016 (829,700 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 5.7% higher than in August 2015.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in August 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for August 2015 and August 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Canada (22.0%), followed by Indonesia (19.7%), and Singapore (4.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for UK, CIs & IOM (-6.5%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - August 2016

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul '16 to Aug '16
Aug '15 to Aug '16
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

Indonesia
109.1
104.6
109.3
-0.2
19.7
New Zealand
109.2
110.4
102.1
0.7
2.8
United States of America
88.9
87.7
87.2
0.6
4.5
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
47.5
48.1
64.4
-0.5
-6.5
Thailand
46.4
46.3
40.1
0.1
-2.1
Fiji
27.6
27.4
29.4
1.0
-4.3
China
36.9
37.5
29.2
-0.1
3.6
Singapore
32.2
31.8
27.8
0.7
4.8
Italy
16.2
15.9
23.8
-0.5
4.7
Canada
13.3
12.8
19.2
1.4
22.0

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The September 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than August 2016.
      2 The September 2016 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than August 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.