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(a) See paragraph 5 for details of further scope exclusions for these industries.
9 Estimates for Company profits before income tax, and Company gross operating profits, only include private incorporated businesses ('companies') employing 20 or more persons and exclude companies in ANZSIC groups 733 or 734 classified to the Corporate Financial sector of the Standard Institutional Sector Classification of Australia (SISCA). Refer to paragraph 18 for more information on this classification. Estimates previously published in Company Profits, Australia (cat. no. 5651.0) related only to companies employing more than 30 persons. The ABS has collected data for companies employing between 20 and 30 persons since September 1994 and these data are now included in published estimates.
10 The estimates for all the other statistics in this publication include unincorporated businesses and businesses with fewer than 20 employees. Other than for profits estimates there are no other exclusions based on SISCA.
CHANGES TO ABS BUSINESS REGISTER
11 The introduction of The New Tax System has a number of significant implications for ABS business statistics. These are discussed in Information Paper: ABS Statistics And The New Tax System (cat. no. 1358.0). The replacement of the Group Employer registration process by PAYGW registration resulted in a number of changes to most business survey frames. However, an adjustment has been made to the statistics in this publication and these changes will not affect broader level estimates of level and movement.
12 Section 68 of the Taxation Administration Act 1953 provides for the Australian Taxation Office to pass information to the Australian Statistician for the purposes of the Census and Statistics Act 1905. The ABS is currently analysing data from Business Activity Statements (BAS) as possible alternatives to direct collection of data, and to improve sample efficiency and reduce the load on businesses in completing ABS survey forms. From the December quarter 2002, the ABS will use BAS wages and salaries data to derive size benchmarks to improve the sample design of the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey.
13 In addition, the ABS has made further changes including adopting a new units model and expanding its Register to include all units on the Australian Business Register, including non-employers. These non-employers will, however, continue to be excluded from the scope of the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey. Information Paper: Improvements in ABS Economic Statistics (Arising from The New Tax System), 2002 (cat. no. 1372.0) provides further details.
14 Prior to the December quarter 2002, the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey used the management unit as the statistical unit. For issues of this publication relating to the December quarter 2002 onwards, the statistical unit in the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey is the ABN unit for businesses with simple structures, and the Type of Activity Unit (TAU) for businesses with complex structures. The TAU is comprised of one or more business entities, sub-entities or branches of a business entity within an Enterprise Group that can report production and employment data for similar economic activities. When a minimum set of data items is available, a TAU is created which covers all the operations within an industry sub-division (and the TAU is classified to the relevant sub-division of the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification). Where a business cannot supply adequate data for each industry, in most cases a TAU is formed which contains activity in more than one industry sub-division. However, if the business has significant activity in more than one industry the TAU is 'split' by the ABS to produce estimates in respect of each industry. In most cases, ABN/TAU units will concord with the management units used prior to the December quarter 2002.
15 The Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification has been developed for use in both countries for the production and analysis of industry statistics. For more information, users are referred to Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC), 1993 (cat. no. 1292.0).
16 In order to classify data by industry, each statistical unit (as defined above) is classified to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification industry in which it mainly operates.
17 Many of the tables in this publication contain an industry classification 'Other selected industries'. For company gross operating profits, company profits before income tax, and income from sales of goods and services, Other selected industries comprises Electricity, gas and water; Accommodation, cafes and restaurants; Communication services; Other financiers; Financial asset investors; Services to finance and insurance; Cultural and recreational services; and Personal services. For inventories, it comprises Electricity and gas, and Accommodation, cafes and restaurants. For wages and salaries, it comprises Electricity, gas and water; Accommodation, cafes and restaurants; Communication services; Deposit taking financiers; Other financiers; Financial asset investors; Other insurance; Services to finance and insurance; Education; Health and community services; Cultural and recreational services; and Personal and other services.
18 The Standard Institutional Sector Classification of Australia (SISCA) is used to classify institutional units into broad economic sectors in national accounts and related statistics. For more information, users are referred to Standard Economic Sector Classifications of Australia (SESCA), 1998 (cat. no. 1218.0).
19 The survey is conducted by mail on a quarterly basis. It is based on a random sample of approximately 16,000 units which is stratified by industry, state/territory and number of employees. All private sector units with over 250 employees, and other statistically significant units, such as joint venture partners, are included in the sample.
20 Respondents are asked to provide data on the same basis as their own management accounts. Where a selected unit does not respond in a given survey period, a value is estimated. If data are subsequently provided, the estimated value is replaced with the reported data. Aggregates are calculated from all data using the ‘number raised’ estimation technique. Data are edited at both individual unit level and aggregate level.
21 Further details about the ABS economic statistical units used in this survey, and in other ABS economic surveys (both sample surveys and censuses), can be found in Chapter 2 of the Standard Economic Sector Classifications of Australia (SESCA) 2002 (cat. no. 1218.0).
TIMING OF SURVEY CYCLE
22 Surveys are conducted in respect of each quarter and returns are completed during the 8 or 9 week period after the end of the quarter to which survey data relate e.g. December quarter survey returns are completed during January and February.
23 The survey frames and samples are revised each quarter to ensure that they remain representative of the survey population. The timing for creating each quarter’s survey frame is consistent with that of other ABS business surveys. This provides for greater consistency when comparing data across surveys.
24 Additionally, with these revisions to the sample, some of the units from the sampled sector are rotated out of the survey and are replaced by others, to spread the reporting workload equitably.
25 The quarterly original estimates in this publication are affected in varying degrees by seasonal influences. The seasonal adjustment process estimates and removes the effects of normal seasonal variations from the original estimates so that the effects of other influences can be more clearly recognised.
26 In the seasonal adjustment process, account has been taken of both normal seasonal factors (e.g. increase in retail sales due to the Christmas period) and also trading day effects when significant (arising from the varying lengths of the quarters and the varying numbers of Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays etc. in each quarter) to produce the seasonally adjusted estimates. Particular care should be taken in interpreting quarterly movements in the seasonally adjusted estimates because seasonal adjustment does not remove the effect of irregular or non-seasonal influences (e.g. change in interest rates) and reflects the sampling and other errors to which the original estimates are subject.
27 In this publication, the seasonally adjusted estimates are produced by the concurrent seasonal adjustment method which takes account of the latest available original estimates. This method improves the estimation of seasonal factors, and therefore, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for the current and previous quarters. As a result of this improvement, revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will be observed for recent periods. In most instances the only noticeable revisions will be to the previous quarter and the same quarter one year ago. A more detailed review is conducted annually prior to the September quarter release using data up to and including the June quarter. The concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology replaces the forward factor methodology used to adjust inventories and sales estimates in Inventories and Sales, Selected Industries, Australia (cat. no. 5629.0) where seasonal factors for these estimates were only revised following an annual reanalysis. The concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology has been applied to company profits estimates for some years.
28 Seasonally adjusted estimates are not available for some series contained in this publication, as at least three years of data (but preferably five years) are required to discern a seasonal pattern. In addition, some seasonally adjusted and trend series for income from sales of goods and services in this publication are marked as experimental as less than five years of data are available for estimation of seasonal factors.
29 The trend estimates are derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted estimates. The 7-term Henderson moving average is symmetric, but as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the moving average are applied. The asymmetric moving average has been tailored to suit the particular characteristics of individual series and enable trend estimates for recent quarters to be produced. Estimates of the trend will be improved at the current end of the time series as additional observations become available. This improvement is due to the combined effect of the concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology and the application of different asymmetric moving averages for the most recent three quarters. As a result of the improvement, revisions to the trend estimates will generally be observed for the most recent three quarters. ABS research shows that about 75% of the total revision to the trend estimate at the current end is due to the use of different asymmetric moving averages when the original estimate is available for the next quarter.
30 There may also be revisions because of changes in the original estimates. As a result of these revisions, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will also be revised. For further information, see Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series - Monitoring Trend, An Overview (cat. no. 1348.0) or contact the Assistant Director, Time Series Analysis on Canberra 02 6252 6345 or email <email@example.com>.
CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES
31 The chain volume measures appearing in this publication are annually reweighted chain Laspeyres indexes referenced to current price values in the chosen reference year (currently 2001-02). The current price values may be thought of as being the product of a price and quantity. The value in chain volume terms can be derived by linking together movements in volumes, calculated using the average prices of the previous financial year and applying compound movements to the current price estimates of the reference year. Each year’s quarter-to-quarter growth rates in the chain volume series are based on the prices of the previous financial year, except for those quarters of the latest incomplete year which are based upon the second most recent financial year. Quarterly chain volume estimates are benchmarked to annual chain volume estimates, so that the quarterly estimates for a financial year sum to the corresponding annual estimate.
32 With each release of the June quarter issue of this publication, a new base year is introduced and the reference year is advanced one year to coincide with it. This means that with the release of the June quarter 2004 issue of this publication, the chain volume measures for 2003-04 will have 2002-03 (the previous financial year) as their base year rather than 2001-02, and the reference year will be 2002-03. A change in the reference year changes levels but not growth rates for all periods. A change in the base year can result in revisions, small in most cases, to growth rates for the last year.
33 Chain volume measures are not generally additive. In other words, component chain volume measures do not, in general, sum to a total in the way original current price components do. For inventories and sales data, this means that the chain volume estimates for industry groups will not add to the total for Australia. In order to minimise the impact of this, the ABS uses the latest base year as the reference year. By adopting this approach, additivity does exist for the quarters following the reference year and non-additivity is relatively small for the quarters in the reference year and those immediately preceding it. For further information on chain volume measures, refer to the Information Paper: Introduction of Chain Volume Measures in the Australian National Accounts (cat. no. 5248.0).
COMPATIBILITY WITH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER ABS ESTIMATES
34 The data collected in the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey are used in the compilation of the quarterly estimates of the Australian National Accounts. Inventories data are used to compile estimates of the increase in book value of non-farm inventories. Estimates of income from sales of goods and services are used to help derive quarterly chain volume measures of gross value added for selected industries. Company gross operating profits data are used to compile estimates of gross operating surplus of private non-financial corporations. From the March quarter 2002, estimates of wages and salaries will be used to compile estimates for compensation of private sector employees. For further details see Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods (cat. no. 5216.0).
35 However the statistics in this publication will differ from corresponding statistics in the quarterly Australian National Accounts for the following reasons:
36 The estimates for income from sales of goods and services by Retail trade in this publication will differ from turnover estimates included in Retail Trade, Australia (cat. no. 8501.0). The latter publication presents monthly estimates of the value of turnover of retail businesses, and is sourced from the Retail Business Survey. Estimates for income from sales of goods and services in this publication exclude the Goods and Services Tax, while turnover collected in the Retail Business Survey includes the Goods and Services Tax. In addition, the Retail Business Survey includes some businesses classified to ANZSIC divisions other than the Retail trade division, and includes retail establishments associated with management units that are not classified to the Retail trade division. The use of different samples in the Retail Business Survey and Quarterly Business Indicators Survey will also contribute to differences.
37 The estimates for wages and salaries in this publication will differ from estimates for gross earnings included in Wage and Salary Earners, Australia (cat. no. 6248.0). The latter publication presents quarterly estimates of gross earnings collected in the Survey of Employment and Earnings, and data on gross earnings are requested on a cash (payroll) basis. Data for wages and salaries estimates are requested on an accruals (accounts) basis in the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey.
38 Users may also wish to refer to the following publications:
39 Current publications produced by the ABS are listed in the Catalogue of Publications and Products, Australia (cat. no. 1101.0). The Catalogue and Release Advice are available from any ABS office or from the ABS web site.
ABS WEB SITE
40 The key indicators and main features from this publication are published on the ABS web site. Information on the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey and survey outputs are also published on the web site: see the Business Indicators Home Page under Themes.
DATA AVAILABLE ON REQUEST
41 As well as the statistics included in this and related publications, the ABS may have other relevant data available on request. These series include more detailed industry data (e.g. Manufacturing subdivision), and wages and salaries by state/territory by industry. The availability of more detailed data are subject to confidentiality and quality checks. Inquiries should be made to the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.
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