5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2003

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/10/2003

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KEY FIGURES



		Jul	Aug	Sep	Aug 03 to
		2003	2003	2003	Sep 03
		$m	$m	$m	% change

TREND
	Balance on goods & services	-2,189	-2, 184	-2,181	-
	Credits (exports of goods & services)	11,328	11,348	11,402	-
	Debits (imports of goods & services)	13,517	13,532	13,583	-

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
	Balance on goods & services	-2,330	-1,968	-2,278	-16
	Credits (exports of goods & services)	11,036	11,574	11,648	1
	Debits (imports of goods & services)	13,366	13,542	13,926	3

KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,181m in September 2003, a decrease of $3m on the deficit in August.
Goods and services credits rose $54m to $11,402m. Goods and services debits rose $51m to $13,583m.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,278m in September, an increase of $310m (16%) on the deficit in August.
Goods and services credits rose $74m (1%) to $11,648m. Rural goods rose $188m (11%) and non-rural and other goods fell $253m (4%). Services credits rose $139m (5%).
Goods and services debits rose $384m (3%) to $13,926m, with goods debits up $310m (3%) and services debits up $74m (3%). Consumption goods rose $273m (8%), capital goods rose $39m (2%), and intermediate and other goods fell $2m.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, the September balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,270m, an increase of $1,523m (87%) on the deficit in August. The increased deficit was the result of a $1,278m (9%) increase in imports of goods and services, and a $245m (2%) decrease in exports of goods and services.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Revisions to Historical Data

In original terms, revisions since the previous issue have:

increased the deficit on goods and services for the two months to August 2003 by $167m
decreased the deficit on goods and services for 2002-03 by $15m.

The revisions are the result of incorporating the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services.

CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the balance on goods and services will be revised in the October 2003 issue of this publication as a result of the annual seasonal re-analysis. The revised forward seasonal factors are released as part of the electronic versions of appropriate publications (see 5368.0, Table 19, for monthly seasonal factors, and 5302.0, Table 95, for quarterly seasonal factors).

FEATURE ARTICLES

Feature articles on Australia's international trade in services by partner country, and international trade in services by state, for the financial year 2002-03, will be released on the ABS web site on 30 October 2003. Comparable data for calendar year 2002 was released on 29 May 2003.

To access these articles on the web site select: Themes then International Trade then Topics of Interest.

CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-6 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 7-10 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.

DATA AVAILABLE ON ABS WEB SITE

Data available on the ABS web site includes:

all tables contained in this publication
additional tables listed on page 4.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra 02 6252 6792.

ADDITIONAL TABLES ON AUSSTATS

TABLES AVAILABLE ON AUSSTATS

12 Merchandise exports by Broad Economic Category (BEC)
13 Merchandise exports by industry of origin (ANZSIC)
14 Merchandise imports by Broad Economic Category (BEC)
15 Merchandise imports by Balance of Payments Broad Economic Category (BoPBEC)
16 Merchandise imports by industry of origin (ANZSIC)
17 Merchandise exports, state by country and country groups
18 Merchandise imports, state by country and country groups
19 Monthly forward seasonal adjustment factors

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in September 2003 was a deficit of $2,181m, a decrease of $3m on the deficit in August.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in September 2003 was a deficit of $2,278m, an increase of $310m (16%) on the deficit in August.
The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2003 was a deficit of $6,576m, a decrease of $351m on the deficit of $6,927m for the three months to June 2003. However, if the more detailed seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the September quarter 2003 deficit was $5,971m, a decrease of $882m on the revised June quarter 2003 deficit of $6,853m.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $54m (1%) in September to $11,402m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $74m (1%) in September to $11,648m. Rural goods rose $188m (11%), while non-rural and other goods fell $253m (4%). Services credits rose $139m (5%).

Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods rose $5m to $1,765m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods rose $188m (11%) to $1,900m. While seasonally adjusted exports of rural goods have improved this month, the level of these exports remain significantly lower than the corresponding period last year. Rural goods exports for September 2003 were $460m (19%) lower than in September 2002.

Rural goods, in original terms, rose $127m (7%) to $1,849m. Three of the four components of rural goods increased.

Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

other rural, down $18m (2%), compared with an average August to September fall of 8% over the previous three years
wool and sheepskins, up $76m (44%), compared with an average August to September rise of 14% over the previous three years. Exports of greasy wool rose $76m (83%), driven by an increase in volumes shipped of 80%.
meat and meat preparations, up $51m (13%), compared with an average August to September rise of 4% over the previous three years. Exports of beef and veal were up $29m (11%), with a 6% increase in volumes shipped and a 5% increase in prices. Mutton and lamb also recorded an increase, up $11m (18%), due to an 18% increase in volumes shipped. Prices were unchanged.
cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $18m (8%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 3% over the previous three years.

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports fell $8m to $6,929m.

Seasonally adjusted, non-rural and other goods fell $253m (4%) to $6,968m.

In original terms, non-rural goods fell $115m (2%) to $6,573m.

Contributing to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted series were:

transport equipment, down $147m (24%), compared with an average August to September fall of 1% over the previous three years. Other transport equipment decreased $208m (91%), while road vehicles increased $53m (14%).
other mineral fuels, down $14m (2%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 8% over the previous three years. Exports of gas, natural and manufactured, were down $10m (4%), and exports of petroleum and petroleum products fell $4m (1%).
machinery, down $11m (2%), in contrast to an average August to September rise of 4% over the previous three years. Exports of machinery specialised for particular industries were down $12m (12%).
other manufactures, up $67m (6%), compared with an average August to September rise of 8% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these decreases was a rise in other non-rural goods, up $32m (4%), in contrast to an average August to September fall of 3% over the previous three years.

In original terms, other goods fell $166m (20%) to $657m, driven by a decrease in gold exports, down $271m (41%).

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $51m in September to $13,583m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $384m (3%) to $13,926m. Goods debits rose $310m (3%), and services debits rose $74m (3%).

Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $16m to $3,451.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $273m (8%) to $3,623m.

Consumption goods, in original terms, rose $538m (16%) to $3,983m. This rise was in contrast to the average August to September fall of 4% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

non-industrial transport equipment, up $263m (30%), compared with an average rise of 5% over the previous three years. This rise was mostly due to a $240m increase in passenger motor vehicles, following lower imports in August 2003.
consumption goods n.e.s., up $110m (10%), in contrast to an average fall of 6% over the previous three years. This increase was mainly due to medicaments, up $34m (9%).
food and beverages, up $74m (19%), in contrast to an average fall of 4% over the previous three years. This increase was mainly due to other food, up $33m (21%).
textiles, clothing and footwear, which was steady with imports of $467m, compared with an average fall of 19% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $18m (1%) to $2,630m.

Seasonally adjusted, capital goods imports rose $39m (2%) to $2,621m.

Imports of capital goods, in original terms, rose $237m (9%) to $2,737m. This rise was in contrast to the average August to September fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

machinery and industrial equipment, down $15m (2%), compared with an average fall of 14% over the previous three years
industrial transport equipment, up $97m (33%), in contrast to an average fall of 2% over the previous three years
ADP equipment, up $49m (13%), in contrast to an average fall of 3% over the previous three years
civil aircraft, up $91m (47%).

Intermediate and other goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods fell $37m (1%) to $4,720m.

Seasonally adjusted, intermediate and other goods imports fell $2m to $4,827m.

Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, rose $267m (6%) to $5,022m.

Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

organic and inorganic chemicals, down $62m (23%), in contrast to an average rise of 20% over the previous three years
non-monetary gold, up $1m (2%), compared with a much stronger increase over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects were:

fuels and lubricants, up $91m (12%), in contrast to an average fall of 16% over the previous three years
goods for processing, up $110m (42%), in contrast to an average fall of 7% over the previous three years
other merchandise goods, up $49m (43%), in contrast to an average fall of 29% over the previous three years.