6422.0 - Information Paper: Producer Price Indexes Developments, 1999

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 25/03/1999

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Contents >> PART A - EXPERIMENTAL INDEX NUMBERS WITHIN A STAGE OF PRODUCTION FRAMEWORK >> Chapter 5. A comprehensive SOP data model >> Leading indicators

5.8 A potential leading indicator of economy-wide inflation, as measured by a DFP index covering both consumption and capital transactions, would be the index aggregate ‘Final goods—Total Consumption plus Capital’ from the experimental SOP indexes. A more complete study would include measures of price change for final services and Indirect taxes.

5.9 On the other hand, for an analysis focusing on household consumer inflation (as measured by the Household Consumption Purchases component of a Domestic Final Purchases index), ‘Final goods—Total Consumption’, along with indicators for final consumption services (particularly relating to wholesale and retail trade margins and transport costs) and relevant indirect taxes, would be a potential leading indicator.