6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Preliminary, 2002  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/06/2002   
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EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

Each time new seasonally adjusted estimates become available, trend estimates are revised (see paragraphs 19 and 20 of Explanatory Notes).


TREND REVISIONS

The examples in the tables below show four illustrative scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of employment and unemployment rate.

1 The June seasonally adjusted estimate is the same as the May estimate.

2 The June seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the May estimate by:

  • +0.30% for employment
  • +1.84% for the unemployment rate

3 The June seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the May estimate by:
  • -0.30% for employment
  • -1.84% for the unemployment rate

4 The June seasonally adjusted estimate results in a revised May trend estimate which is identical to the new June trend estimate.

The percentage changes of 0.30% and 1.84% were chosen because they represent the average absolute monthly percentage changes in employment and the unemployment rate respectively.


EMPLOYMENT (’000)
WHAT IF NEXT MONTH'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
Graph - Employment
TREND AS PUBLISHED
1
9 305.2
i.e. the same
as May 2002
2
9 332.7
i.e. rises by
0.30%
3
9 277.6
i.e. falls by
0.30%
4
9 267.5
i.e. same trend
for May & Jun
2002
March
9,282.3
9,281.6
9,282.8
9,280.4
9,279.9
April
9,294.3
9,292.6
9,296.7
9,288.6
9,287.1
May
9,302.7
9,300.9
9,308.5
9,293.2
9,290.4
June (new)
-
9,306.2
9,317.8
9,294.6
9,290.4

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE IS:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
1
6.3
i.e. the same
as May 2002
2
6.4
i.e. rises by
1.84%
3
6.2
i.e. falls by
1.84%
4
6.7
i.e same trend
for May & Jun
2002
March
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.5
April
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.3
6.4
May
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.4
June (new)
-
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.4