ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in January 2008 was a deficit of $2,521m, an increase of $109m (5%) on the revised deficit in December 2007.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in January 2008 was a deficit of $2,723m, an increase of $786m (41%) on the revised deficit in December 2007.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $176m (1%) between December 2007 and January 2008 to $18,656m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $322m (2%) to $19,020m. Other goods rose $301m (28%) and rural goods rose $25m (1%) while non-rural goods fell $6m. Services credits rose $1m.

Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $47m (2%) to $2,120m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $25m (1%) to $2,180m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $36m (11%)
• other rural, up $35m (4%).

Partly offsetting these effects was the meat and meat preparations component, down $39m (7%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $411m (18%) to $1,864m.

Non-rural goods

The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports rose $76m (1%) to $11,169m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $6m to $11,333m.

Components falling in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• metals (excluding non-monetary gold), down $441m (32%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $90m (5%)
• other non-rural (including sugar and beverages), down $71m (6%).

Components that rose in the month included:

• metal ores and minerals, up $312m (10%)
• other mineral fuels, up $139m (10%)
• other manufactures, up $63m (5%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $2,026m (17%) to $10,081m.

The main movements in the original series contributing to the seasonally adjusted series were:

• metals (excluding non-monetary gold), down $561m (40%), compared to an average December to January fall of 4% over the previous three years, with:
  • aluminium, down $192m (39%) with volumes down 41% and prices up 4%
  • copper, down $150m (39%) with volumes down 38% and prices down 2%
  • lead, down $129m (75%) with volumes down 70% and prices down 14%.
• metal ores and minerals, down $457m (13%), compared to an average December to January fall of 23% over the previous three years, with:
  • zinc ore, down $98m (53%) with volumes down 57% and prices up 9%
  • copper ore, down $97m (24%) with volumes down 13% and prices down 12%
  • alumina, down $68m (13%) with volumes down 8% and prices down 6%.

Other goods

The trend estimate of other goods exports rose $41m (3%) to $1,216m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods rose $301m (28%) to $1,363m, driven by non-monetary gold, up $316m (36%).

In original terms, exports of other goods rose $303m (29%) to $1,357m.

Exports of Services

In trend terms, services credits rose $13m to $4,152m.

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $1m to $4,144m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $14m (1%)
• transportation services, up $6m (1%).

Largely offsetting these effects was the travel services component, down $20m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits fell $27m (1%) to $2,597m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services credits.

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $285m (1%) between December 2007 and January 2008 to $21,177m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,106m (5%) to $21,742m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $582m (8%), other goods rose $402m (83%) and consumption goods rose $144m (3%) while capital goods fell $105m (3%). Services debits rose $82m (2%).

Imports of goods

CONSUMPTION GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $69m (1%) to $5,062m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $144m (3%) to $5,143m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $93m (6%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $33m (5%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $8m (1%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $5m.

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $110m (2%) to $4,859m.

CAPITAL GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $42m (1%) to $3,767m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $105m (3%) to $3,725m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft, down $258m.

Partly offsetting this effect were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $113m (9%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $39m (6%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $293m (8%) to $3,481m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $129m (2%) to $7,519m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $582m (8%) to $7,826m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $372m (16%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $97m (31%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $53m (3%)
• other merchandise goods, up $31m (29%)
• iron and steel, up $31m (11%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:

• other parts for capital goods, down $15m (2%)
• paper and paperboard, down $13m (7%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,033m (15%) to $7,874m.

OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of other goods rose $6m (1%) to $705m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits rose $402m (83%) to $887m, driven by non-monetary gold, up $410m (120%).

Imports of services

In trend terms, services debits rose $39m (1%) to $4,124m.

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $82m (2%) to $4,161m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• transportation services, up $52m (4%)
• travel services, up $30m (2%)
• other services, up $1m.

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $19m (1%) to $2,158m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services debits.