8169.0 - Experimental Estimates for Australian Industry adjusted for Off-June Year Reporting, 2011-12
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/07/2013
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METHODOLOGY
Creating subdivision off-June year factors It was necessary to create twenty-one separate factors for each in scope ANZSIC subdivision, as demonstrated in Table 2.2.
The factors were formulated from a subset of businesses sampled in the QBIS which met the following criteria:
Where there were five or less contributing QBIS businesses in an ANZSIC subdivision, it was considered that the number of observations was insufficient for producing the off-June factors. In those cases the off-June factors were produced at ANZSIC division level. Sales and service income, other expenses and inventories factors were not generated for Education and training and Health care and social assistance (ANZSIC Divisions P and Q respectively), as the information is not collected by QBIS (see Scope and Population above). For the same reason, inventory factors could only be generated for Mining, Manufacturing, Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Accommodation and food services (ANZSIC Divisions B, C, F, G and H respectively) and two subdivisions in the Electricity, gas, water and waste services Division; Electricity supply and gas supply (ANZSIC Subdivisions 26 and 27 respectively). For each data item, quarterly weighted QBIS data reported by the subset of businesses established above were summed to give an aggregate value for each in scope ANZSIC subdivision. These aggregate quarterly values were then used to create factors that model the impact of off-June reporting for each of the four data items, by each in scope subdivision. To calculate each factor, a ratio of the summed data from the four quarters of the standard financial year is divided by the summed annualised data from the four quarters of the relevant off-June reporting period, as described by Equation 2.1. EQUATION 2.1. CALCULATING OFF-JUNE FACTORS where Q is quarterly QBIS data aggregated by industry subdivision for the subset of businesses identified above. Since inventories are stock variables (that is, represent a quantity existing at a particular point in time) the formulae for deriving inventories factors differed slightly, as described by Equation 2.2. EQUATION 2.2. CALCULATING OFF-JUNE INVENTORIES FACTORS Factors were produced for opening and closing inventories, by type of inventory. The types of inventories specified were raw materials inventories and finished goods inventories (including work-in-progress). The factors generated in these equations give an indication of the variability in trading conditions between off-June reporting periods and the standard Australian financial year. A factor of 1 indicates no variability, implying there is no effect of off-June reporting on estimates published in Australian Industry (cat. no. 8155.0). Conversely, the further a factor lies from 1, the greater the impact of off-June reporting on industry estimates. An example of the calculation of factors for Subdivision 14, Wood product manufacturing is provided below. Quarterly sales and service income estimates derived from in-scope QBIS data (see Table 2.3) were used to produce off-June factors (see Example 2.1) which were applied to EAS estimates of sales and service income.
EXAMPLE 2.1. CALCULATING FACTORS: Sales of goods and services, Subdivision 14 Wood product manufacturing Quality assurance of subdivision off-June year factors To validate ANZSIC subdivision off-June factors (derived from QBIS data), the following processes were used:
Creating unit off-June factors The use of unit off-June factors were introduced for estimates presented in this paper. Unit off-June factors were applied to improve the accuracy of off-June adjusted estimates. Unit factors were derived similarly to subdivision factors. The difference between the unit and subdivision factor is that a business' unit factor is derived by using its reported QBIS data only (where the subdivision factor uses all in-scope QBIS data for that subdivision). Quality assurance of unit off-June factors Assessment was made on the consistency between reported EAS data and reported QBIS data for the relevant four quarters to ensure that the data was correct. Where there was consistency between the two data sources, the unit received a unit factor. Where consistency did not exist between EAS and QBIS data the unit received the subdivision factor. In assessing a business' suitability for a unit off-June factor, suitability of QBIS data was also reviewed for inclusion in subdivision factors, based on the criteria described above (see Quality assurance of subdivision off-June factors). Applying factors to EAS data The quality assured off-June factors are then applied to the relevant off-June reporting EAS units. If an EAS unit was deemed suitable for a unit factor, its reported EAS data is adjusted by its unit factor. Where an EAS unit was not deemed suitable or assessed to receive a unit factor, then its corresponding ANZSIC subdivision's factor for its particular off-June type was applied to reported EAS data. The off-June year factors are applied to only selected data items from the EAS. The adjusted items are shown in Table 2.4, as well as the factors which were used to adjust them. Note that not all components of the published items have been adjusted, due to a lack of available QBIS data from which to create appropriate factors.
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