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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2014 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 07/08/2014   
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FEATURE ARTICLE: INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS — 2013-14

ALL MOVEMENTS

In the year ended June 2014, there were 32.6 million crossings of Australia's international borders (original series). This represents 1.4 crossings per person in the Australian population. Ten years ago (2003-04) there were 18.6 million border crossings, representing 0.9 crossings per person in the Australian population. The majority of movements in 2013-14 were short-term (96.5%). Short-term movements have an intended duration of stay in Australia, or absence from Australia, of less than one year.

Just over half of the total movements in 2013-14 were arrivals to Australia (16.35 million). They were comprised of 8.9 million Australian residents returning after a short-term absence from Australia, 6.6 million visitors arriving for a short-term stay and 753,600 permanent and long-term arrivals.

Just under half of the total movements in 2013-14 were departures from Australia (16.28 million). They were comprised of 9.0 million Australian residents departing short-term, 6.9 million visitors departing Australia after a short-term stay and 383,100 permanent and long-term departures.

Short-term resident departures have continued to exceed short-term visitor arrivals since the year ended June 2008 when departures overtook arrivals for the first time in 22 years (see figure below). In the year ended June 2014, short-term resident departures exceeded short-term visitor arrivals by 2.33 million movements, higher than the difference in 2012-13 (2.27 million movements). In the year ended June 2008, resident departures were higher than visitor arrivals by only 128,100 movements.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Original Series(a)
Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals and short-term resident departures


A traveller may cross Australia's borders many times in a year and each movement is counted in these statistics. For more information, see the 1st paragraph of the 'Permanent and Long-Term Movements' section in the Main Features.


Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series. Please note the estimates in this article have been revised back to July 2004 due to improved methodology used in the rebuild of the overseas arrivals and departures system. For further information, please see Overseas Arrivals and Departures, January 2014.

Over the ten year period ending June 2014, trend estimates, while showing monthly fluctuations, have recorded long-term growth. Between the beginning of 2007 and mid 2008, the series was relatively stable but has fluctuated from June 2008 to the end of 2009, possibly due to the combined effect of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the outbreak of swine flu. The highest point in the series was in June 2014 (574,100 movements) while the lowest point was in June 2004 (433,000 movements).

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia(a)
Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals, last ten years


The following table shows, in trend terms, the top ten source countries for short-term visitor arrivals in 2003-04 compared with 2013-14. New Zealand remained the largest contributor of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in 2013-14, recording 1.2 million movements. Of the top ten source countries in the year ending June 2014, short-term visitor arrivals from India recorded the strongest growth over the ten year period, with a percentage change of 246.0%. It was followed by China (228.4%), and Malaysia (75.3%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (54.9%).


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years, Trend Series(a)

2003-2004
2013-2014
Trend
Trend
2003-04 to 2013-14
Source countries(b)
'000
Source countries(c)
'000
Trend % change

New Zealand
932.1
New Zealand
1 223.6
31.3
Japan
718.6
China
769.3
228.4
UK, CIs & IOM(d)
687.1
UK, CIs & IOM(d)
646.7
-5.9
United States of America
428.8
United States of America
528.6
23.3
Singapore
255.0
Singapore
367.1
44.0
China
234.3
Japan
323.7
-54.9
Korea, South
214.8
Malaysia
311.4
75.3
Malaysia
177.6
Hong Kong
202.5
50.1
Germany
140.5
Korea, South
201.1
-6.4
Hong Kong
134.9
India
183.8
246.0
Total
5 106.2
Total
6 657.7
30.4

(a) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.
(b) Top 10 source countries based on trend estimates for 2003-04.
(c) Top 10 source countries based on trend estimates for 2013-14.
(d) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
Seasonally adjusted estimates

Irregular impacts on the short-term visitor arrivals series are demonstrated by the seasonally adjusted series. The graph above shows that over the ten year period ending June 2014, a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. The increase in movements in July 2008 reflects the large arrivals due to World Youth Day held in Sydney and in June 2013 reflects the spectators visiting for the 2013 British and Irish Lions rugby union tour.


Original estimates

In original terms, a record 6.6 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia in the year ended June 2014. The next highest recorded number of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia was in the year ended June 2013 (6.2 million). Ten years ago (2003-04), 5.1 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia.

Age and sex

When 2003-04 and 2013-14 are compared, the peak age group for all short-term visitor arrivals remained the 25-29 years age group (contributing 11.2%, and 10.6% respectively). More recently, the age distribution of visitors arriving has been older, with the proportion of travellers within the 50-69 years age group increasing from 24.9% in 2003-04 to 29.5% in 2013-14. Conversely, the proportion travelling who were aged 25-49 years decreased from 48.7% in 2003-04 to 43.6% in 2013-14. The median age for all short-term visitor arrivals increased from 38 years in the year ended June 2004, to 40 years in the year ended June 2014.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years(a)

2003-2004
2008-2009
2013-2014
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age group (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
96.4
1.9
118.3
2.2
142.0
2.1
5-9
122.7
2.4
126.0
2.3
158.7
2.4
10-14
162.5
3.2
169.5
3.1
198.6
3.0
15-19
274.3
5.4
332.2
6.1
329.8
5.0
20-24
485.4
9.6
557.9
10.2
616.5
9.3
25-29
567.8
11.2
609.1
11.2
706.1
10.6
30-34
532.5
10.5
493.2
9.0
615.6
9.3
35-39
465.3
9.2
463.7
8.5
508.2
7.6
40-44
462.8
9.2
440.7
8.1
536.1
8.1
45-49
436.0
8.6
452.3
8.3
533.3
8.0
50-54
420.0
8.3
451.9
8.3
569.6
8.6
55-59
372.7
7.4
406.4
7.4
550.7
8.3
60-64
277.3
5.5
356.6
6.5
477.2
7.2
65-69
189.9
3.8
250.6
4.6
363.1
5.5
70-74
107.8
2.1
132.7
2.4
199.6
3.0
75 and over
83.9
1.7
97.5
1.8
141.7
2.1
Total
5 057.2
100.0
5 458.6
100.0
6 646.8
100.0

(a) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.

For male short-term visitors arriving from overseas, the peak age group moved from 30-34 years in 2003-04 (11.1%) to 25-29 years in 2013-14 (10.0%). For females the peak age group of 25-29 years remained constant while the contribution fell from 12.5% in 2003-04 to 11.2% in 2013-14. The median ages for males and females increased to 41 years and 39 years respectively in the year ended June 2014. The comparative medians were 39 years and 36 years in the year ended June 2004.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Age and Sex(a)
Graph: short-term visitor arrivals, age and sex



An equal proportion of males and females arrived in Australia for short-term stays in the year ended June 2014. Previously, more males than females arrived for short-term stays. The short-term visitor arrival sex ratio (the number of male arrivals per 100 female arrivals) was 107 males in 2003-04 and 100 males in 2013-14. The highest sex ratios were recorded in the 40-44 years age group in both 2003-04 (153 males) and in 2013-14 (126 males). The lowest sex ratio was recorded in the 20-24 years age group in 2003-04 (75 males). In 2013-14 it was also in the 20-24 years age group (80 males per 100 female arrivals). The following graph illustrates, for short-term visitor arrivals, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Sex ratios at age(a)
Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals, sex ratios at age



Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2014, the most frequently cited main reason for journey to Australia by short-term visitor arrivals was holiday (46%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (28%) and business (9%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2004 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (51%), visiting friends and relatives (19%) and business (10%). The median duration of stay for all short-term visitor arrivals was 10 days in 2003-04 and 11 days in 2013-14.

State of stay

New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 38% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2014. The other state/territory shares were Victoria with 23%, Queensland (23%), Western Australia (11%), South Australia (3%), and Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (1% each). In 2003-04, the intended state of stay proportions for short-term visitor arrivals were similar, with some differences recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 39%, Queensland (29%), Victoria (17%), Western Australia (10%) and South Australia (2%) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia.


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series. The trend estimate series for short-term resident departures has shown long-term growth over the last 10 years ending June 2014. The high point in the series was June 2014 (759,600 movements) while the low point was in June 2004 (358,400 movements). Breaks were recorded in the series at October 2005, December 2006, April 2009, July 2009, February 2011 and March 2011. For more information, see paragraph 26 of the Explanatory Notes.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia(a)
Graph: Short-term resident departures, last ten years



The following table shows, in trend terms, the top ten destination countries for short-term resident departures in 2003-04 compared with 2013-14. New Zealand remained the most popular destination in 2013-14, with Australians making 1.2 million journeys there. Of the top ten destination countries in the year ending June 2014, short-term resident departures to India recorded the strongest growth over the ten year period, with a percentage change of 321.3%. It was followed by Indonesia (266.1%), and Malaysia (247.9%).


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years, Trend Series(a)

2003-2004
2013-2014
Trend
Trend
2003-04 to 2013-14
Destination countries(b)
'000
Destination countries(c)
'000
Trend % change

New Zealand
737.9
New Zealand
1 194.4
61.9
UK, CIs & IOM(d)
356.6
Indonesia
1 012.8
266.1
United States of America
334.8
United States of America
934.6
179.1
Indonesia
276.7
Thailand
614.7
247.9
Thailand
176.7
UK, CIs & IOM(d)
540.7
51.6
Fiji
160.5
China
402.1
161.4
China
153.8
Singapore
374.8
153.9
Singapore
147.6
Fiji
333.9
108.1
Hong Kong
141.3
Malaysia
300.5
128.0
Malaysia
131.8
India
255.9
321.3
Total
3 961.3
Total
8 940.0
125.7

(a) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.
(b) Top 10 destination countries based on trend estimates for 2003-04.
(c) Top 10 destination countries based on trend estimates for 2013-14.
(d) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
Seasonally adjusted estimates

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. During the ten years ending June 2014, the seasonally adjusted estimate has mainly recorded strong growth. Strong movement in the series from early 2008 onwards coincided with the Global Financial Crisis, the high Australian dollar, cut-price air fares and the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and March/April 2009.

Original estimates

In original terms, there was a record 9.0 million short-term resident departures in the year ending June 2014. This compared with 8.4 million in the year ending June 2013. Ten years ago (2003-04), there were 3.9 million residents departing Australia short-term.

Age and sex

When 2003-04 and 2013-14 are compared, the peak age group for all short-term resident departures changed from 30-34 years in 2003-04 (10.5%) to 50-54 years in 2013-14 (9.4%). More recently, the age distribution of Australian residents travelling overseas has been older, with the proportion travelling in the 50-69 years age group increasing from 26.4% in 2003-04 to 29.5% in 2013-14. Conversely, the proportion travelling who were aged 25-49 years age decreased from 49.8% in 2003-04 to 44.2% in 2013-14. The median age for all short-term resident departures increased from 40 years in the year ended June 2004, to 41 years in the year ended June 2014.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years(a)

2003-2004
2008-2009
2013-2014
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age groups (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
118.1
3.0
198.0
3.4
326.3
3.6
5-9
121.3
3.1
181.1
3.1
309.0
3.4
10-14
145.0
3.7
205.5
3.5
322.2
3.6
15-19
174.1
4.4
258.9
4.4
391.7
4.4
20-24
248.3
6.3
395.5
6.8
600.1
6.7
25-29
353.2
9.0
527.2
9.0
821.1
9.1
30-34
413.5
10.5
507.0
8.7
827.5
9.2
35-39
375.8
9.5
533.0
9.1
737.9
8.2
40-44
412.8
10.5
520.5
8.9
784.7
8.7
45-49
404.5
10.3
592.0
10.1
793.6
8.8
50-54
386.3
9.8
570.4
9.8
843.5
9.4
55-59
333.7
8.5
493.1
8.5
748.2
8.3
60-64
195.9
5.0
395.5
6.8
601.8
6.7
65-69
122.0
3.1
233.5
4.0
455.1
5.1
70-74
67.1
1.7
123.9
2.1
236.6
2.6
75 and over
65.2
1.7
98.6
1.7
179.6
2.0
Total
3 936.8
100.0
5 833.7
100.0
8 978.7
100.0


(a) Data revised from July 2004 to December 2013. For information see Explanatory Notes 12 & 13.

For male Australian residents departing overseas for a short-term stay abroad, the peak age group moved from 40-44 years in 2003-04 (11.5%) to 50-54 years in 2013-14 (9.7%). For females, the peak age group was 25-29 years in both 2003-04 (12.5%) and 2013-14 (9.8%). The median age for males and females increased to 42 years and 39 years respectively in the year ended June 2014. The comparative medians were 41 years and 38 years in the year ended June 2004.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Age and Sex(a)
Graph: Short-term resident departures, age and sex


The disparity between the number of Australian male and female residents departing Australia for short-term stays abroad is decreasing. The short-term resident departures sex ratio (the number of male departures per 100 female departures) was 122 males in 2003-04 compared with 112 males in 2013-14. The highest sex ratio was recorded in the 35-39 years age group in 2003-04 (162 males) and the 40-44 years age group in 2013-14 (131 males).

The lowest sex ratios were in the 20-24 years age groups in both 2003-04 (79 males) and in 2013-14 (84 males). The following graph illustrates, for short-term resident departures, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Sex ratios at age(a)
Graph: Short-term resident departures, sex ratio at age


Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2014, the most frequently cited main reason for journey from Australia by short-term resident departures was holiday (60%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (23%) and business (10%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2004 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (44%), visiting friends and relatives (26%) and business (16%). The median duration of stay for all short-term resident departures has decreased from 15 days in 2003-04 to 14 days in 2013-14.

State of residence

The largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2014 were the most populous states. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (34%), followed by Victoria (25%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (16%), South Australia (5%), the Australian Capital Territory (2%), and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (1% each). In 2003-04, the state/territory of residence proportions for all short-term resident departures were similar, with some differences recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 40%, Victoria (23%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (12%), and South Australia contributing 4% of all short-term resident departures from Australia in 2003-04.

Movement rates

In the year ending June 2014, there was considerable variation in the rate of movement for short-term resident departures (the number of movements per 1,000 state or territory population) across the states and territories. Western Australia had the highest movement rate (549 movements per 1,000 population) followed by the Australian Capital Territory (451), the Northern Territory (441), New South Wales (404), Victoria (384), Queensland (328), South Australia (255) and Tasmania (181). Overall, the Australian movement rate was 385 movements per 1,000 population.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

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