3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2016 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/08/2016   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

ALL MOVEMENTS

In the year ended June 2016, there were 36.2 million crossings of Australia's international borders (original series). This represents 1.5 crossings per person in the Australian population. Ten years ago (2005-06) there were 21.3 million border crossings, representing 1.1 crossings per person in the Australian population. The majority of movements in 2015-16 were short-term (97.0%). Short-term movements have an intended duration of stay in Australia, or absence from Australia, of less than one year.

Just over half of the total movements in 2015-16 were arrivals to Australia (18.2 million). They were comprised of 9.6 million Australian residents returning after a short-term absence from Australia, 7.8 million visitors arriving for a short-term stay and 681,900 permanent and long-term arrivals.

Just under half of the total movements in 2015-16 were departures from Australia (18.0 million). They were comprised of 9.7 million Australian residents departing short-term, 7.9 million visitors departing Australia after a short-term stay and 419,200 permanent and long-term departures.

Short-term resident departures have continued to exceed short-term visitor arrivals since the year ended June 2008 when departures overtook arrivals for the first time in 22 years (see figure below). In the year ended June 2016, short-term resident departures exceeded short-term visitor arrivals by 1.8 million movements, lower than the difference in 2014-15 (2.1 million movements). In the year ended June 2008, resident departures were higher than visitor arrivals by only 128,100 movements.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Original Series

Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals and resident departures, Australia


A traveller may cross Australia's borders many times in a year and each movement is counted in these statistics. For more information, see the second paragraph of the 'Explanatory Notes'.


Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series.

Over the ten year period ending June 2016, trend estimates, while showing monthly fluctuations, have recorded long-term growth. Between the beginning of 2007 and mid 2008, the series was relatively stable but then fluctuated from June 2008 to the end of 2009, possibly due to the combined effect of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the outbreak of swine flu. The highest point in the series was in June 2016 (687,500 movements) while the lowest point was in November 2008 (443,700 movements).

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals, Australia


The following table shows, in trend terms, the top ten source countries for short-term visitor arrivals in 2005-06 compared with 2015-16. New Zealand remained the largest contributor of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in 2015-16, recording 1.3 million movements. Of the top ten source countries in the year ending June 2016, short-term visitor arrivals from China recorded the strongest growth over the ten year period, with a percentage change of 292.4%. It was followed by India (217.8%), and Malaysia (134.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (43.0%).

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years, Trend Series

2005-2006
2015-2016
Trend
Trend
2005-06 to 2015-16
Source countries(a)
'000
Source countries(b)
'000
Trend % change

New Zealand
1072.1
New Zealand
1318.5
23.0
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
715.9
China
1153.4
292.4
Japan
669.0
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
699.1
-2.3
United States of America
447.9
United States of America
657.0
46.7
China
294.0
Singapore
428.0
80.6
Korea, South
248.9
Japan
381.0
-43.0
Singapore
237.1
Malaysia
356.8
134.8
Hong Kong
154.7
Korea, South
257.9
3.6
Malaysia
152.0
India
239.4
217.8
Germany
151.1
Hong Kong
235.4
52.1
Total
5446.0
Total
7836.3
43.9

(a) Top 10 source countries based on trend estimates for 2005-06.
(b) Top 10 source countries based on trend estimates for 2015-16.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

Seasonally adjusted estimates

Irregular impacts on the short-term visitor arrivals series are demonstrated by the seasonally adjusted series. The graph above shows that over the ten year period ending June 2016, a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. The increase in movements in July 2008 reflects the large arrivals due to World Youth Day held in Sydney and in June 2013 reflects the spectators visiting for the 2013 British and Irish Lions rugby union tour.


Original estimates

In original terms, a record 7.8 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia in the year ended June 2016. The next highest recorded number of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia was in the year ended June 2015 (7.1 million). Ten years ago (2005-06), 5.4 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia.

Age and sex

In both 2005-06 and 2015-16, 25-29 year olds were the peak age group for all short-term visitor arrivals (contributing 10.4%, and 11.0% respectively). The age distribution of visitors arriving has been getting older, with the proportion of travellers within the 50-69 years age group increasing from 26.3% in 2005-06 to 29.9% in 2015-16. Conversely, the proportion travelling who were aged 25-49 years decreased from 46.8% in 2005-06 to 43.1% in 2015-16. The median age for all short-term visitor arrivals increased from 38.7 years in 2005-06 to 40.4 years in 2015-16.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years

2005-2006
2015-2016
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age group (years)
'000
%
'000
%

0–4
114.1
2.1
170.9
2.2
5–9
136.7
2.5
195.2
2.5
10–14
190.0
3.5
231.1
2.9
15–19
310.3
5.7
397.6
5.1
20–24
497.9
9.1
717.2
9.1
25–29
569.2
10.4
861.2
11.0
30–34
541.6
9.9
724.0
9.2
35–39
483.9
8.9
582.4
7.4
40–44
489.8
9.0
591.3
7.5
45–49
464.4
8.5
621.0
7.9
50–54
458.6
8.4
668.3
8.5
55–59
428.8
7.9
644.5
8.2
60–64
320.4
5.9
579.4
7.4
65–69
225.3
4.1
452.0
5.8
70–74
124.7
2.3
241.7
3.1
75 and over
91.9
1.7
169.0
2.2
Total
5447.6
100.0
7846.8
100.0


For male short-term visitors arriving from overseas, the peak age group moved from 40-44 years in 2005-06 (10.3%) to 25-29 years in 2015-16 (10.3%). For females the peak age group of 25-29 years remained constant with a slight increase from 11.4% in 2005-06 to 11.7% in 2015-16. The median ages for males increased from 39.7 years in 2005-06 to 40.9 years in 2015-16. The median age for females increased from 37.3 years in 2005-06 to 39.8 years in 2015-16.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Age and Sex

Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals, Australia - Age and Sex



A higher proportion of women than men arrived in Australia for short-term stays in the year ended June 2016. Previously, more males than females arrived for short-term stays. The short-term visitor arrival sex ratio (the number of male arrivals per 100 female arrivals) was 104.0 males in 2005-06 and 94.3 males in 2015-16. The highest sex ratios were recorded in the 40-44 years age group in 2005-06 (139.5 males) and in the 35-39 years age group in 2015-16 (114.4 males). The lowest sex ratio was recorded in the 20-24 years age group in both 2005-06 (76.2 males) and in 2015-16 (75.4 males). The following graph illustrates, for short-term visitor arrivals, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Sex ratios at age

Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals, Australia - Sex ratios at age



Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2016, the most frequently stated main reason for journey to Australia by short-term visitor arrivals was holiday (49.9%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (26.0%) and business (7.7%). While the most stated main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2006 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (52.8%), visiting friends and relatives (21.5%) and business (10.3%). The median duration of stay for all short-term visitor arrivals was similar, with 10.6 days in 2005-06 and 10.8 days in 2015-16.

State of stay

New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 37.9% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2016. Around a quarter of all short-term visitors intended to stay in Victoria (24.7%), with smaller proportions in Queensland (22.1%), Western Australia (10.3%), South Australia (2.6%), and Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (around 1% each). In 2004-05, the intended state of stay proportions for short-term visitor arrivals were similar, with some differences recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales with 38.9%, Queensland (29.1%), Victoria (17.8%), Western Australia (9.1%) and South Australia with 2.5% of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia.


Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series. The trend estimate series for short-term resident departures has shown long-term growth over the last 10 years ending June 2016. The high point in the series was June 2016 (824,300 movements) while the low point was in June 2006 (409,300 movements). Breaks were recorded in the series at December 2006 and April 2009. For more information, see paragraph 26 of the Explanatory Notes.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia

Graph: Short-term resident departures, Australia



The following table shows, in trend terms, the top ten destination countries for short-term resident departures in 2005-06 compared with 2015-16. New Zealand remained the most popular destination in 2015-16, with Australians making 1.2 million journeys there. Of the top ten destination countries in the year ending June 2016, short-term resident departures to Indonesia recorded the strongest growth over the ten year period, with a percentage change of 416.1%. It was followed by Japan (246.5%), India (199.2%) and the United States of America (135.0%).

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years, Trend Series

2005-2006
2015-2016
Trend
Trend
2005-06 to 2015-16
Destination countries(a)
'000
Destination countries(b)
'000
Trend % change

New Zealand
837.3
New Zealand
1289.6
54.0
United States of America
440.0
Indonesia
1203.5
416.1
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
417.5
United States of America
1034.0
135.0
Thailand
248.0
UK, CIs & IOM(c)
606.5
45.3
China
240.0
Thailand
547.9
121.0
Indonesia
233.2
China
439.1
83.0
Fiji
199.8
Singapore
368.3
90.1
Singapore
193.8
Japan
343.6
246.5
Hong Kong
185.9
Fiji
343.3
71.8
Malaysia
162.8
India
300.8
199.2
Total
4782.2
Total
9679.0
102.4

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on trend estimates for 2005-06.
(b) Top 10 destination countries based on trend estimates for 2015-16.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

Seasonally adjusted estimates

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. During the ten years ending June 2016, the seasonally adjusted estimate has mainly recorded strong growth. Strong movement in the series from early 2008 onwards coincided with the Global Financial Crisis, the high Australian dollar, cut-price air fares and the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and March/April 2009.

Original estimates

In original terms, there was a record 9.7 million short-term resident departures in the year ending June 2016. The next highest recorded number of short-term resident departures was in the year ended June 2015 (9.3 million). Ten years ago (2005-06), there were 4.8 million short-term resident departures.

Age and sex

The peak age group for all short-term resident departures changed from 45-49 years in 2005-06 (10.4%) to 30-34 years in 2015-16 (9.5%). In 2015-16, more Australian residents in the older age groups travelled overseas than in 2005-06, with people aged 60 years and over responsible for 17.2% of all departures in 2015-16, compared to 13.1% in 2005-06. Conversely, the proportion travelling who were aged 25-49 years age decreased from 47.6% in 2005-06 to 43.9% in 2015-16. The median age for all short-term resident departures was similar in both 2005-06 and 2015-16 (41.3 and 41.0 respectively).

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years

2005-2006
2015-2016
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age groups (years)
'000
%
'000
%

0–4
145.8
3.0
366.0
3.8
5–9
141.0
2.9
358.1
3.7
10–14
178.8
3.7
351.0
3.6
15–19
202.6
4.2
413.7
4.3
20–24
311.5
6.5
612.1
6.3
25–29
411.8
8.5
855.9
8.8
30–34
461.9
9.6
920.7
9.5
35–39
438.2
9.1
803.0
8.3
40–44
480.5
10.0
836.6
8.6
45–49
502.7
10.4
839.2
8.7
50–54
485.1
10.1
865.5
8.9
55–59
434.5
9.0
799.5
8.3
60–64
280.6
5.8
659.3
6.8
65–69
172.5
3.6
511.2
5.3
70–74
95.5
2.0
288.3
3.0
75 and over
82.4
1.7
204.1
2.1
Total
4825.4
100.0
9684.4
100.0



For male Australian residents departing overseas for a short-term stay abroad, the peak age group moved from 45-49 years in 2005-06 (11.1%) to 30-34 years in 2015-16 (9.7%). For females, the peak age group moved from 30-34 years in 2005-06 (9.6%) to 25-29 years in 2015-16 (9.5%). For males, the median age decreased from 42.3 years in 2005-06 to 41.8 years in 2015-16, while for females the median age increased slightly (39.7 in 2005-06 to 40.1 in 2015-16).

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Age and Sex

Graph: Short-term resident departures, Australia - Age and Sex


The short-term resident departures sex ratio (the number of male departures per 100 female departures) was 118.5 males in 2005-06 compared with 109.0 males in 2015-16. The highest sex ratio was recorded in the 40-44 years age group in 2005-06 (149.3 males) and in the 35-39 years age group in 2015-16 (128.0 males).

The lowest sex ratios were in the 20-24 years age groups in both 2005-06 (82.5 males) and 2015-16 (83.7 males). The following graph illustrates, for short-term resident departures, the sex ratio for each age group.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Sex ratios at age

Graph: Short-term resident departures, Australia - Sex ratios at age


Main reason for journey and duration of stay

In the year ended June 2016, the most frequently stated main reason for journey from Australia by short-term resident departures was holiday (59.4%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (24.3%) and business (8.8%). While the most stated main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2006 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (48.7%), visiting friends and relatives (26.4%) and business (15.4%). The median duration of stay for all short-term resident departures has decreased from 15.0 days in 2005-06 to 13.6 days in 2015-16.

State of residence

The largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2016 were the most populous states. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (34.1%), followed by Victoria (25.3%), Queensland (17.9%), Western Australia (14.2%), South Australia (4.7%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.8%), and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (around 1% each). In 2005-06, the state/territory of residence proportions for all short-term resident departures were similar.

Movement rates

In the year ending June 2016, there was considerable variation in the rate of movement for short-term resident departures (the number of movements per 1,000 state or territory population) across the states and territories. Western Australia had the highest movement rate (528 movements per 1,000 population) followed by the Australian Capital Territory (455), New South Wales (430), the Northern Territory (411), Victoria (408), Queensland (361), South Australia (265) and Tasmania (180). Overall, the Australian movement rate was 405 movements per 1,000 population.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimated changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.