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1352.0.55.079 - Research Paper: Some Aspects of Turning Point Detection in Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates (Methodology Advisory Committee), Jun 2006  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/07/2006  First Issue
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  • About this Release

The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates. Users are often concerned about which estimate is most appropriate for use to accurately determine current and future economic behaviour. In this research we compare the use of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates in terms of the detection of turning points. It is found that turning points are generally detected in a more timely fashion and with a lower incidence of falsely detected turning points for trend rather than seasonally adjusted estimates when compared with trend and seasonally adjusted benchmarks respectively. Additional information is presented in seasonally adjusted estimates that may be of aid in the detection of turning points. However due to increased clarity, the trend estimates are preferred to identify turning points for low-end users.


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