INTRODUCTION
This information paper explains how businesses reporting data on a non-standard financial year basis can impact on the estimates published in Australian Industry (cat. no. 8155.0), and describes an experimental methodology designed to measure the impact of this phenomenon on published data.
The estimates presented in Australian Industry (cat. no. 8155.0) are derived from the Economic Activity Survey (EAS), and generally represent the 12 month period ended 30 June. However, where businesses are unable to provide data on this basis, an alternate, or off-June accounting period is used. As a result, in some instances estimates may reflect trading conditions occurring outside of the published reference year.
By its nature, off-June reporting is more prevalent in industries with a high degree of foreign ownership, such as Mining, Manufacturing and Wholesale trade, as many countries have different standard accounting periods to Australia. Some local businesses also report for an 'off-June' year for logistical or operational purposes.
Where trading conditions are stable across years, the effect of off-June year reporting is expected to be minimal, but when levels of activity in an industry change quickly, estimates might be more substantially affected. Often, this occurs as a result of price fluctuations or one-off extraordinary events that impact on industry performance.
This paper describes an experimental methodology designed to produce estimates for all businesses on the same June year end reporting basis. The methodology uses data collected through the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey (QBIS) to model the impact of off-June year reporting on selected Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) (cat. no. 1292.0) industry subdivisions. Using QBIS data, 'off-June year' factors are generated that, when applied to EAS data remove the impact of off-June reporting on estimates. A detailed explanation of the methodology can be found in Chapter 2.
The result is a set of experimental estimates adjusted for off-June year reporting. These experimental estimates, along with the original estimates published in Australian Industry (cat. no. 8155.0) are presented by ANZSIC division for selected data items in the Appendix of this paper. The data items are wages and salaries, total income, total expenses and industry value added (IVA), presented for the reference years 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12.
Chapter 3 contains a summary of the effects of the off-June adjustments on EAS data. Care should be taken when using these experimental estimates as modelling may introduce an element of error. Information concerning the reliability of estimates is described in Chapter 4.
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