COMMENTARY ON KEY INDICATORS
Estimated Resident Population (ERP)
- The preliminary ERP of ACT at 31 December 2008 was 347,843 persons, an increase of 5,769 persons (1.7%) since 31 December 2007.
- Of this increase, natural increase accounted for 3,107 persons (53.9%), net overseas migration for 2,651 persons (46.0%) and net interstate migration for 11 persons (0.2%).
- Natural increase comprised 4,804 births and 1,697 deaths, net overseas migration comprised 7,620 arrivals and 4,969 departures, and net interstate migration comprised 19,380 arrivals and 19,369 departures.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- In the March quarter 2009, accommodation takings for ACT hotels, motels and service apartments with 15 or more rooms increased by 1.0% to $52.6 million, compared to the previous quarter.
- The March quarter 2009 room occupancy rate of 70.6% for ACT hotels, motels and service apartments with 15 or more rooms was 1.8 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.
- For ACT hotels, motels and service apartments with 15 or more rooms, the average takings per room night occupied in the March quarter 2009 was $164 ($161 in the previous quarter).
State/Domestic Final Demand
- The All Groups CPI for Canberra rose 0.6% in the June quarter 2009, compared to a rise of 0.4% in the previous quarter.
- Over the year to the June quarter 2009, the All Groups CPI for Canberra rose 2.1%, compared to an annual rise of 2.7% to the March quarter 2009.
- The most significant price rises for Canberra in the June quarter were for automotive fuel (3.5%), hospital and medical services (3.2%), furniture (3.6%), towels and linen (17.2%), motor vehicles (1.5%) and house purchase (0.8%). The most significant offsetting price falls were for deposit and loan facilities (-4.4%), vegetables (-8.8%) and fruit (-7.9%).
- State final demand for the ACT declined 0.7% (trend terms) from December quarter 2008 to March quarter 2009 - this was the third quarterly decline in a row. This decline was largely as a result of a fall of 8.7% in public gross fixed capital formation.
- Over the year to the March quarter 2009, state final demand for the ACT declined by 1.4% (trend terms), mainly due to a fall of 23.3% ($140 million) in public gross fixed capital formation.
- The trend estimate of employment in ACT decreased by 600 to 193,500 persons from May 2009 to June 2009. Full-time employment decreased slightly by 100 to 147,000 persons and part-time employment decreased by 500 to 46,500 persons.
- From June 2008 to June 2009, the trend estimate of employment for ACT decreased by 2,800 with full-time employment increasing by 400 and part-time employment declining by 3,200.
- The trend estimate of unemployment in ACT increased by 400 to 7,200 persons from May 2009 to June 2009, and increased by 1,700 persons from June 2008 to June 2009.
- The trend unemployment rate for ACT increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6% from May to June 2009 and by 0.9 percentage points from June 2008 to June 2009. From May to June 2009, the male unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% and the female unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%.
- The trend participation rate for the ACT decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 71.9% from May to June 2009. Male participation remained steady at 76.5% with female participation declining by 0.2 percentage points to 67.6%.
- In seasonally adjusted terms, total retail turnover in the ACT declined by 1.6% from May 2009 ($380m) to June 2009 ($374m). Nationally, there was a decline of 1.4%.
- For the ACT, while there was an increase in Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaway food services turnover (+$2.7m), there were declines in turnover for Clothing and soft good retailing (-$3.1m), Food retailing (-$2.9m), Department stores (-$1.5m), and Other retailing (-$1.5m) in June 2009.
- The trend estimate for the number of dwelling units approved in the ACT was 287 dwellings in May 2009, an increase of 11.2% from the previous month.
- Over the year to May 2009, there were 2,691 dwelling units approved in the ACT, an increase of 18.5% over that for the year to May 2008 (2,271).
House Price Index
- In trend terms, the value of owner occupied housing finance commitments (excluding alterations and additions) in the ACT increased by 3.4% from April 2009 ($303 million) to May 2009 ($313 million).
- The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance in the ACT increased by 2.9% from April 2009 (1,155) to May 2009 (1,188), in trend terms.
- In trend terms over the year to May 2009, there were 11,379 owner occupied housing finance commitments in the ACT, an increase of 10.6% over that for the year to May 2008 (10,284).
- In original terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance in the ACT for May 2009 was 1,177 - of this, 8.9% related to construction of dwellings, 5.9% to purchase of new dwellings and 85.1% to purchase of established dwellings (including refinancing).
- Preliminary estimates show the price index for established houses in Canberra increased by 0.5% in the March quarter 2009; however over the year to March quarter 2009, the Canberra established house price index decreased by 5.1%.
- The Canberra project home price index showed no change in the March quarter 2009 but increased by 5.1% over the year to March quarter 2009.