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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Jan 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/03/2011   
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IMPACT OF THE FLOODS


Extensive flooding began in late December 2010 in Queensland, and was more extensive in both Queensland and other states in January 2011. The collection and processing of data included in this publication were not disrupted.

On a month to month basis the export and import of goods can be impacted by a number of factors including exchange rates, supply constraints, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns. The impact of an event like the Queensland floods on exports can not be readily quantified. However, the following analysis identifies the major components that in January 2011 differed from the five year average recorded trade movement between December and January for Queensland*:

  • hard coking coal fell $591m (37%), with an average decrease of $259m (14%) between December and January over the previous five years
  • bituminous (thermal) coal fell $121m (33%), with an average increase of $2m (5%) between December and January over the previous five years
  • meat and meat preparations, down $219m (71%), compared with an average decrease of $177m (58%) between December and January over the previous five years.

*separate estimates for semi-soft coking metallurgical coal for Queensland are not available due to confidentiality restriction.

A large extreme correction is applied to prevent trend estimates from being biased by an unusually large or small original estimate. Such corrections can also help stabilise seasonal factor estimates. Details on the use of large extreme corrections to stabilise the trend during unusual events can be found in the feature article When it's not "Business-as-usual": Implications for ABS Time Series in Australian Economic Indicators, August 2009 (cat. no. 1350.0). An extreme correction has been applied to the balance of payments basis 'coke, coal and briquettes' component in order to stabilise the trend estimate for goods credits.The ABS will continue to monitor this series.


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