5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Dec 2011 
Quality Declaration
Quality Declaration ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/03/2012
Page tools:
 Print Page
 Print All
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
VOLUMES AND PRICES Goods and Services In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $13,228m, a fall of $861m (6%) on the September quarter 2011 deficit of $14,089m. The net deficit on goods fell $604m (6%) on the September quarter 2011 deficit of $9,502m. Goods credits rose $1,464m (3%) and goods debits rose $860m (1%). The net deficit on services fell $257m (6%) on the September quarter 2011 deficit of $4,587m. The decrease in the balance on goods and services deficit, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, is expected to contribute 0.3 percentage points to growth in the December quarter 2011 volume measure of GDP, assuming no significant revision to the GDP chain volume estimate for the September quarter 2011. Terms of Trade and Implicit Price Deflator Australia's seasonally adjusted terms of trade on net goods and services fell 4.7% to 125.5 with a decrease of 1.7% in the implicit price deflator (IPD) for goods and services credits and an increase of 3.1% in the IPD for goods and services debits. In trend terms, the terms of trade for net goods and services rose 0.5% to 129.3. Goods The trend estimate of net goods at current prices was a surplus of $7,863m, a rise of $119m (2%) on the September quarter 2011 surplus of $7,744m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net goods recorded a surplus of $6,377m, a fall of $2,651m (29%) on the September quarter 2011 surplus of $9,028m.
Services
GOODS CREDITS The trend estimate of goods credits at current prices rose $2,218m (3%) to $70,542m in the December quarter 2011. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods credits rose $309m to $69,739m, with volumes up 3% and prices down 2%. Rural Goods Exports of rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $296m (3%) to $9,046m, with volumes up 5% and prices down 1%. The main component contributing to the rise was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $346m (16%), with volumes up 21% and prices down 4%. Partly offsetting this rise was the wool and sheepskins component, down $72m (9%), with volumes down 7% and prices down 2%. Non-rural Goods Exports of non-rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $184m to $56,210m, with volumes up 3% and prices down 3%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Partly offsetting these falls were:
Net Exports of Goods Under Merchanting Net exports of goods under merchanting, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices was -$18m. Non-monetary Gold Non-monetary gold, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $207m (5%), with volumes up 1% and prices up 4%. GOODS DEBITS The trend estimate of goods debits at current prices rose $2,099m (3%) to $62,679m in the December quarter 2011. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods debits rose $2,959m (5%) to $63,361m, with volumes up 1% and prices up 4%. Consumption Goods Imports of consumption goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $209m (1%) to $16,484m, with prices up 2%. The main components contributing to the rise were:
Capital Goods Imports of capital goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $1,336m (9%) to $17,018m with volumes up 5% and prices up 3%. The main components contributing to the rise were:
Partly offsetting these rises was the industrial transport equipment n.e.s. component, down $104m (5%), with volumes down 4% and prices down 1%. Intermediate and Other Merchandise Goods Imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $1,018m (4%) to $27,782m, with volumes down 1% and prices up 5%. The main component contributing to the rise was fuels and lubricants, up $921m (10%), with volumes down 2% and prices up 13%. Partly offsetting this rise was other parts for capital goods, down $109m (3%), with volumes down 5% and prices up 3%. Non-monetary Gold Imports of non-monetary gold, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $398m (24%) to $2,078m, with volumes up 20% and prices up 3%. SERVICES The trend estimate of net services at current prices was a deficit of $2,906m, a rise of $283m (11%) on the September quarter 2011 deficit of $2,623m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net services recorded a deficit of $2,788m, a fall of $107m (4%) on the September quarter 2011 deficit of $2,895m. Services Credits Services credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $28m to $12,274m. The main components contributing to the rise were:
Partly offsetting these rises was the travel component, down $40m (1%), with volumes down 1%. In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits remained steady at $7,888m. Services Debits Services debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $79m (1%) to $15,062m, with volumes down 2% and prices up 1%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Partly offsetting these falls was the travel component, up $89m (1%), with prices up 1%. In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service debits rose $58m (1%) to $8,280m. PRIMARY INCOME The trend estimate of the net primary income deficit at current prices fell $310m (3%) to $11,708m in the December quarter 2011. In seasonally adjusted terms, the net primary income deficit fell $16m to $11,819m in the December quarter 2011. Primary Income Credits Primary income credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $22m to $10,647m. The main components contributing to the rise were:
Partly offsetting these rises were:
Primary Income Debits Primary income debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose by $7m to $22,467m. The main components contributing to the rise were:
Partly offsetting these rises were:
SECONDARY INCOME The trend estimate of net secondary income deficit at current prices, rose $12m (10%) to $133m in the December quarter 2011. In seasonally adjusted terms, the net secondary income deficit at current prices, rose $21m (17%) to $143m in the December quarter 2011. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT The balance on financial account, in original terms, recorded a net inflow of $9.2b, with a net inflow of $11.6b of equity and a net outflow of $2.4b of debt. The financial account surplus increased $1.4b, from $7.7b in September quarter 2011 to $9.2b in December quarter 2011. Direct investment recorded a net inflow of $18.5b in December quarter 2011, an increase of $12.7b from the net inflow of $5.9b in September quarter 2011, where:
Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of $15.0b, a decrease of $6.3b on the net inflow of $21.3b in September quarter 2011, where:
Financial derivatives recorded a net outflow of $0.2b, a decrease of $17.7b from the net outflow of $17.9b in September quarter 2011. Other investment recorded a net outflow of $20.4b, an increase of $19.3b from the net outflow of $1.2b in September quarter 2011. Reserve assets recorded a net outflow of $3.7b, an increase of $3.4b from the net outflow of $0.3b in September quarter 2011. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION ANALYSIS Australia's net international investment position at 31 December 2011 was a net foreign liability of $854.7b, up $1.7b on the 30 September 2011 position of $852.9b. The changes contributing to this result are shown in the following table.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION CONDITIONS The conditions in the global economy showed moderate increases for most countries in the December quarter 2011. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), preliminary real GDP estimates in seasonally adjusted terms showed movement in quarterly growth for: USA (0.7%), France (0.2%), Japan (-0.6%), Germany (-0.2%), UK (-0.2%) and overall OECD total (0.1%). Australia's international investment activities during the quarter were as follows:
The Australian share market, as measured by the MSCI global index, increased 0.9% in December quarter 2011, following a 13.4% decrease in September quarter 2011. There were increases in all major markets: USA 11.1%, United Kingdom 8.4%, Germany 7.4%, Switzerland 7.2%, France 5.7%, Hong Kong 5.5%, Europe ex UK 3.1% and Canada 2.1%. The decreases were in New Zealand -4.5%, Japan -4.2% and Singapore -2.1%. A market price change of -$16.5b was recorded for foreign equity assets and -$9.3b in foreign equity liabilities during December quarter 2011. According to Reuters, the composite corporate benchmark yield increased in Australia from 6.10% to 6.41%, in UK (4.00% to 4.29%), in Germany (3.4% to 3.5%), in Japan (1.2% to 1.5%) but decreased for USA from 3.1% to 3.0%. Long term government bond yields decreased in all major markets in December quarter 2011. The 10 year government bond yields decreased in the UK (2.4% to 2.0%) and Germany (1.9% to 1.8%). It remained flat in USA at 1.9% and Japan at 1.0%. In Australia, the rate decreased from 4.2% to 3.8%. This is reflected in the market price changes for both portfolio debt securities liabilities (-$0.9b) and assets ($3.1b) in December quarter 2011. The Australian dollar appreciated against a number of the major currencies in December quarter 2011. It increased 8.8% against the Euro, 8.7% against the Swiss franc, 5.1% against the Japanese yen, 5.1% against the UK pound sterling, 3.8% against the US dollar, 3.0% against the New Zealand dollar, 2.6% against the Chinese renminbi and 2.0% against the Canadian dollar. The Trade Weighted Index (TWI) rose 4.7%. The net impact of exchange rates was a decrease of $36.3b on foreign assets and $26.8b on foreign liabilities. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IPD, EPI AND IPI(footnote 1) In original terms, the IPD for total goods credits fell 2.7% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods exports fell 2.5%. The export price index (EPI) fell 1.5% during the December quarter 2011. In original terms, the IPD for total goods debits rose 2.3% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods imports rose 2.5%. The import price index (IPI) rose 2.5% during the December quarter 2011. Differences between the IPD and International Trade Price Indexes can arise due to a number of methodological factors including differences in pricing points, timing, coverage and weights. In the December quarter 2011, the difference between the IPD and EPI were mainly due to the 'wool and sheepskins', 'metal ores and minerals' and 'cereal grains and cereal preparations' components.
Commodity Price Indexes The RBA Commodity Price Index(footnote 2) (average monthly index) for rural commodities decreased 2.8% between the September quarter 2011 and December quarter 2011 quarters while the EPI for rural goods total decreased 1.7%. The RBA Commodity Price Index for non-rural commodities decreased 3.0% while the EPI for non-rural goods total (excluding non-monetary gold) decreased 1.8%. Differences between the RBA Commodity Price Index and ABS price measures are largely a consequence of methodological differences used in the construction of the respective indexes, including coverage of included commodities and timing of source data. CALENDAR YEAR 2011 SITUATION CURRENT ACCOUNT In original terms, the balance on current account for 2011 was a deficit of $32.0b, a 17% decrease on the deficit of $38.5b recorded for 2010. The balance on goods and services surplus was a record high at $18.2b, an increase of $2.9b (19%) on the surplus of $15.3b recorded in 2010. Goods credits increased $31.5b (14%) and goods debits increased $22.8b (11%). The 2011 services deficit of $9.8b was an increase of $5.8b on the deficit of $4.0b in 2010. The 2011 primary income deficit decreased $3.2b (6%), with an increase in primary income credits of $2.5b (6%) and a decrease in primary income debits of $0.7b (1%). The 2011 secondary income deficit decreased $0.4b (47%), with an increase in secondary income credits of $0.5b (8%) and an increase in secondary income debits of $0.1b (1%). FINANCIAL ACCOUNT The balance on financial account recorded a net inflow of $31.3b, with a net inflow on debt of $27.0b and a net inflow on equity of $4.4b. This result was down $7.2b on the net inflow of $38.5b recorded for the previous year as a result of:
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION Australia's net international investment position as at 31 December 2011 was a net foreign liability of $854.7b. This was up $79.6b (10%) on the position a year earlier as a result of:
During 2011, Australia's net foreign equity liability decreased to $119.3b, down $7.3b (6%) on the previous calendar year, with price changes of -$17.7b and other changes of -$3.3b partially offset by exchange rate changes of $9.3b and net transactions of $4.4b. Australia's net foreign debt liability rose to $735.4b, up $86.9b (13%) on the previous calendar year, with price changes of $34.3b, net transactions of $27.0b, exchange rate changes of $24.1b and other changes of $1.6b. At 31 December 2011, the ratio of Australia's net international investment position to GDP using the latest available GDP figure (for the year ended 30 September 2011 using current prices) was 60.1%. This compares with 57.1% one year ago and 46.7% one decade ago. 1 In this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places. <back 2 For RBA Commodity Price Index methodology, see paragraph 23 of the Explanatory Notes. <back Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
