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3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/11/2013   
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TASMANIA

Population size

The population of Tasmania is projected to increase in two of the three main series, and decline in the third.

Series A projects the largest population for Tasmania, increasing from 512,200 people at 30 June 2012 to 714,000 in 2061. In Series B Tasmania's population increases slowly before levelling out by around 2046 and then decreasing marginally from 2047 onwards (565,700 people in 2061). In Series C, Tasmania's population increases only slightly over the first 15 years and begins to decline from 2028 onwards. By 2061 Tasmania's population is projected to be 460,900 in this scenario.


Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, Tasmania

From 217,000 people at 30 June 2012, Hobart's population is projected to increase to between 228,700 and 339,300 in 2061.

The population of the balance of Tasmania is projected to increase in Series A (from 295,400 at 30 June 2012 to 374,700 in 2061), but will decrease from 2035 onwards in Series B (reaching 295,100 in 2061) and from 2022 onwards in Series C (to 232,200 in 2061).


Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, Hobart
Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, Balance of Tasmania

Age/sex structure

At 30 June 2012 Tasmania had the oldest population of the states and territories, with a median age of 40.8 years (compared to 37.3 years for Australia). This is projected to increase to between 46.4 years and 51.1 years in 2061. The graph below presents the age structure for Tasmania in 2012 and 2061.


Graph Image for PROJECTED POPULATION, Series B, Tas - At 30 June

Births and Deaths

In 2011-12, there were 6,400 births and 4,300 deaths in Tasmania, resulting in natural increase of 2,100 people. In Series A, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths (natural increase), during the projection period. In Series B and C, deaths will first exceed the number of births in 2032-33 and 2026-27 respectively, until the end of the projection period.



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