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3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/06/2010   
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Contents >> Chapter 1 Main Features >> STATE AND TERRITORY PROJECTIONS

STATE AND TERRITORY PROJECTIONS

Growth in the number of households (hereafter referred to as 'household growth') between 2006 and 2031 is projected to vary markedly across the states and territories, with those projected to experience high population growth projected to have faster household growth. Household growth is projected to range from between 21% and 25% in Tasmania to between 68% and 75% in Queensland.

In general, the capital cities are projected to experience higher rates of household growth than the balances of state, except in Queensland and South Australia.


New South Wales

  • The number of households in New South Wales is projected to increase from 2.5 million in 2006 to between 3.5 and 3.6 million in 2031. This is an increase of between 943,400 and 1.0 million households.
  • Family households are projected to experience the largest numeric increase, from 1.8 million households in 2006 to between 2.4 and 2.5 million in 2031.
  • The number of lone person households are projected to increase rapidly. Female lone person households are projected to increase from 333,800 in 2006 to between 540,500 and 555,200 in 2031, representing growth of between 62% and 66%, while male lone person households are projected to increase from 275,700 to between 388,000 and 511,700, an increase of 41% to 86%.
  • Couple families without children are projected to increase more than couple families with children; as a result, in two of the three projection series, couple families without children outnumber couple families with children from either 2019 (Series II) or 2016 (Series III) onwards.
  • Sydney is projected to experience the second largest numeric increase in households of all capital cities and balances of state, with an extra 644,300 to 684,900 households, reaching between 2.2 and 2.3 million households by 2031.


Victoria
  • The number of households in Victoria is projected to increase from 1.9 million households in 2006 to between 2.8 and 2.9 million in 2031. This is an increase of between 860,100 and 937,300 households.
  • The number of families in Victoria is projected to increase more slowly than families Australia-wide. From 1.4 million in 2006, the number of families in Victoria is projected to increase by between 37% and 40% to reach between 1.9 and 2.0 million in 2031.
  • In two of the three projection series, couple families without children are projected to outnumber couple families with children, from either 2016 (Series II) or 2015 (Series III) onwards.
  • Melbourne, with 1.4 million households in 2006, is projected to record the greatest numeric increase in households of all the capital cities and balances of state, with an extra 699,800 to 748,700 households, reaching 2.1 million households by 2031. The greater increase in Melbourne is mainly due to higher projected population growth for Melbourne (43%) compared to Sydney (33%) over the projection period.


Queensland
  • Between 2006 and 2031, Queensland is projected to experience the fastest and largest household growth in Australia. Queensland households are projected to increase by between 68% and 75%, or 1.0 to 1.1 million households, from 1.5 million in 2006 to between 2.5 and 2.6 million in 2031. This growth is considerably faster than projected national growth of between 47% and 52%, and is the result of high population growth in Queensland over the projection period.
  • The number of lone person households is projected to increase particularly quickly in Queensland, increasing by between 89% and 124% (from 334,400 households in 2006 to between 630,800 and 747,600 in 2031).
  • In all three series, couple families without children are projected to become the most common family type in Queensland, overtaking couple families with children in either 2016 (in Series I) or 2010 (in both Series II and III.
  • The balance of Queensland is projected to record the third largest numeric increase in households of all the capital cities and balances of state, increasing by between 588,100 and 646,300 households.


South Australia
  • Household growth in South Australia is projected to be the second slowest of all the states and territories in Australia, increasing by between 30% and 35%. This is an increase from 626,500 in 2006 to between 816,300 and 848,900 in 2031.
  • In 2006, couple families with children were the most common family type in South Australia, accounting for 42% of families. Between 2006 and 2031, this family type is projected to increase slowly in Series I (by 15%) and Series II (by 2%), while declining in Series III (by 21%).
  • In contrast, couple families without children are projected to increase by between 39% and 50% between 2006 and 2031, becoming the most common family type in South Australia from either 2010 (in Series I) or 2008 (in Series II and III) onwards.


Western Australia
  • Western Australia is projected to experience the second fastest household growth of the states and territories over the period 2006 to 2031, increasing by between 66% and 71%. The number of households in Western Australia is projected to increase from 776,300 in 2006 to 1.3 million in 2031.
  • The number of lone person households is projected to increase the fastest of all household types in Western Australia, increasing by between 84% and 123%, or 156,900 to 229,600 households, from 186,600 in 2006 to between 343,500 and 416,100 in 2031.
  • Couple families without children are projected to experience the fastest growth of all family types in Western Australia, overtaking couple families with children in 2012 (Series II and III) or 2026 (Series I).


Tasmania
  • Tasmania's household growth is projected to be the slowest of all the states and territories, reflecting the relatively low population growth projected for Tasmania (15% between 2006 and 2031).
  • The number of households in Tasmania is projected to increase from 196,100 in 2006 to between 237,900 and 244,900 households in 2031. This is an overall increase of between 41,800 and 48,900 households, or 21% to 25%.
  • Lone person households are projected to have the greatest increase of all household types in Tasmania, increasing by between 21,100 and 33,000 households, from 52,000 in 2006 to reach between 73,200 and 85,000 in 2031. Family households are projected to only increase by between 15,100 and 20,300 households.
  • In Series I and II, the average household size in Tasmania is projected to decline to 2.3 people per household by 2031 (the same as South Australia). In Series III, Tasmania's average household size is projected to decline to 2.2 people per household, the smallest average household size of all the states and territories in 2031.


Northern Territory
  • Household growth in the Northern Territory is projected to be the third fastest of the states and territories, increasing by between 53% and 54%, from 64,400 households in 2006 to between 98,500 and 99,400 households in 2031. This is an increase of between 34,200 and 35,000 households.
  • Unlike other states and territories, the Northern Territory has more male lone person households (7,700 in 2006) than female lone person households (5,400 in 2006). Both are projected to increase rapidly between 2006 and 2031 (increasing by between 63% and 95% for males, and 75% and 143% for females).
  • The average household size in the Northern Territory is projected to decline from 3.2 people per household in 2006 to between 2.9 and 3.0 in 2031, remaining the largest average household size of the states and territories.
  • In Series I and II, couple families with children are projected to remain the most common family type in the Northern Territory, while in Series III couple families without children are projected to overtake couple families with children in 2020.
  • One-parent families are projected to increase by between 51% and 77%, from 10,200 families in 2006 to between 15,500 and 18,100 families in 2031.


Australian Capital Territory
  • The number of households in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is projected to increase by 48,300 to 51,900 households over the projection period, from 126,500 households in 2006 to between 174,800 and 178,400 in 2031.
  • Couple families without children are projected to increase the most rapidly of all family types in the ACT. From 33,400 families in 2006, couple families without children are projected to increase by between 48% and 75% to reach between 49,300 and 58,500 in 2031. As a result, couple families without children are projected to become the most common family type in the ACT in two of the three projection series, outnumbering couple families with children from either 2014 (Series II) or 2013 (Series III) onwards.


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