3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 22/11/2018   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product


NORTHERN TERRITORY


INTRODUCTION

The population projections presented in this release are not predictions or forecasts. They are an assessment of what would happen to Australia's population if the assumed levels of the components of population change (births, deaths and migration) were to occur between 2018 and 2066.

The projections reveal the size, structure and distribution of the future population under various assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. These assumptions are based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere.

For simplicity, most analysis is limited to three selected series which cover three sets of possible future population growth outcomes: higher (series A), medium (series B) and lower (series C). However, there are a total of 72 series available for use.

Selected projection series

ASSUMPTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION
Life expectancy at birth(a)
Total fertility rate(b)
Males
Females
Net overseas migration(b)
Net interstate migration(b)
2027
2042
2066
babies per woman
years
years
persons
persons
'000
'000
'000

Series A
2.14
81.9
82.9
2 480
–3 000
270
309
386
Series B
1.98
77.6
80.4
2 030
–1 000
277
336
439
Series C
1.81
77.6
80.4
1 580
1 000
284
361
490

(a) From 2066
(b) From 2027


PROJECTION RESULTS

Population size

The Northern Territory's population of 247,700 people is projected to increase between 0.2% and 1.9% per year, reaching a population between 275,100 and 622,000 in 2066.

The three selected series project continuing population growth throughout the projection period. In the three selected series, the Northern Territory will reach between 269,500 and 283,900 in 2027. In series C, the Northern Territory experiences consistent growth, reaching 489,900 in 2066. In series B, the population reaches 438,600 in 2066 and in series A, growth is projected to be lower, with the population reaching 386,400 in 2066.

The combination of assumptions in series 3 results in the largest population for the Northern Territory in 2027 (293,400 people). The difference to series A is the assumption of smaller interstate migration flows, which results in a net gain of 1,000 people per year for the Northern Territory. Conversely, series 52, which compared to series C has larger interstate migration flows, resulting in a net loss of 3,000 people per year, projects the smallest population by 2027 (260,200 people). Across the series, the maximum annual growth rate for the Northern Territory is the highest of all states and territories. However, the minimum annual growth rate for the Northern Territory is also one of the lowest, only higher than Tasmania and South Australia.

Graph Image for Projected population, Northern Territory

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Most of the Northern Territory's growth is projected to occur in Greater Darwin. At 30 June 2017, Greater Darwin had 60% of the Northern Territory's population. This proportion could increase to between 63% and 64% in 2027 and reach between 73% and 78% in 2066.

The population of Greater Darwin is projected to increase from 148,900 at 30 June 2017 to between 164,500 (series 52) and 187,000 (series 3) in 2027. The three series project population growth over the whole projection period, with series A increasing to 295,500 in 2066, series B increasing to 332,800 and series C increasing to 361,200.

Population growth for the rest of the Northern Territory is smaller, with some series projecting population decline. The highest projected population for 2027 was an increase from 98,600 in 2017 to 106,400 (series 3). The lowest projected population for 2027 was a decline to 95,600 (series 52). Series B and C project population growth over the whole projection period, increasing to 105,800 and 128,700 in 2066 respectively. Series A is projected to slightly decline to 91,000 in 2066.

Graph Image for Projected population, Greater Darwin

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066



Graph Image for Projected population, Rest of Northern Territory

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Natural increase

In 2016–17, there were 3,900 births and 1,100 deaths in the Northern Territory, resulting in natural increase of 2,900 people.

In the three selected series, births will continue to exceed the number of deaths during the projection period, resulting in natural increase for the Northern Territory.

In series A, numbers of both births and deaths increase over the projection period. The impact of the higher overseas migration assumption results in births increasing at a faster rate than deaths, however, leading natural increase to grow to 4,200 by 2066.

Series B projects similar numbers of births to series A, but a higher number of deaths results in a natural increase of 3,500 in 2066. The higher number of deaths is a combination of the smaller increases in life expectancy in series B, together with the larger population due to smaller net interstate migration loss.

In series C, the number of births increase more slowly than the number of deaths over the first 10 years of the projection, which sees natural increase decline over this period before returning almost to the current level in 2066 (2,800 people).

Below the state level, increasing numbers of births in Greater Darwin leads natural increase to grow over the projection period in all series, while in the rest of the Northern Territory the level of natural increase declines in all three series.

Graph Image for Projected natural increase, Northern Territory

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066




Net overseas migration

In 2016–17, there were 7,100 overseas arrivals and 5,100 overseas departures in the Northern Territory, resulting in net overseas migration (NOM) of 2,000 people.

In all series, overseas arrivals will exceed overseas departures resulting in positive NOM.

Series A projects the largest NOM gain of 2,500 people per year from 2027. Series B projects NOM to remain steady at 2,000, and series C projects NOM to decrease to 1,600 people per year.

Greater Darwin is assumed to receive 76% of the territory's NOM.


Net interstate migration

In 2016–17, there were 14,100 interstate arrivals and 17,000 interstate departures in the Northern Territory, resulting in a net interstate migration (NIM) loss of 2,900 people.

In series A, the assumption of larger interstate flows results in the largest NIM loss of 3,000 from 2027. In series B, NIM is projected to increase with a NIM loss of 1,000 from 2027. The assumption of smaller interstate flows in series C results in a NIM gain of 1,000, providing the highest population gain to the Northern Territory from 2027.


POPULATION AGEING

Median age

In the three series, the median age of the population of the Northern Territory is projected to increase from 32.6 years at 30 June 2017 to between 33.9 years (series A), 35.2 years (series B) and 37.1 years (series C) in 2066. In each of these three series the Northern Territory remains the state or territory with the lowest median age.

Series C projects the largest increase in the median age by 2066, with the median age of males increasing by 4.8 years to 37.4 years and the median age of females increasing by 4.2 years to 36.7 years. Series A projects the lowest median age, with males increasing to 34.2 years and females increasing to 33.5 years. Series B projects the median age of males increasing to 35.5 years the median age of females increasing to 34.8 years.


Age structure

The graph below presents the age structure of the Northern Territory's population for series A, B and C, compared to the 2017 population age structure.

In the three selected series, the proportion of people aged 65 and over increases from 7.2% at 30 June 2017 to between 11% (series A and B) and 13% (series C) in 2066. Over the same period, the number of children (those aged 0–14) is projected to increase in series A, from 22% in 2017 to 22%, but decrease in series B and C to 19% and 21% respectively. The working age population (those aged 15–65) is projected to decrease from 71% in 2017 to between 67% (series A) and 68% (series B and C).

The population aged 85 and over is projected to increase from 0.4% in 2017 to between 1.3% (series B), 1.5% (series C) and 1.6% (series A).

Graph Image for Population proportion(a), Northern Territory

Footnote(s): (a) The 85 years and over population has not been included in the graph but was used to calculate the proportion for all ages.

Source(s): Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) - 2066