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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jul 2008 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/08/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 11 and 12.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The August 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the July 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.

2 The August 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the July 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 3.2%.

The percentage change of 3.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 3.2%.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 3.2%
(2) Falls by 3.2%
no.
no.
no.

2008
April
88 824
88 808
88 901
May
88 109
88 174
87 929
June
87 415
87 668
86 859
July
86 772
87 259
85 734




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