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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jan 2011 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 16/02/2011   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The February 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the January 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The February 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the January 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change of 2.1% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.1%. The percentage change has been reviewed and updated following the recent re-analysis of the time series.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.1%
(2) Falls by 2.1%
no.
no.
no.

2010
October
85 308
85 281
85 341
November
85 292
85 357
85 198
December
85 252
85 428
84 903
2011
January
85 252
85 506
84 516




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