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5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Jan 2009 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/03/2009   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The February 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the January 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

2 The February 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the January 2009 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.3%.

The percentage change of 2.3% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.3%.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.3% on this month
(2) falls by 2.3% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

July 2008
49 612
-2.8
49 612
-2.8
49 612
-2.8
August 2008
49 098
-1.0
48 952
-1.3
49 002
-1.2
September 2008
49 362
0.5
49 147
0.4
49 234
0.5
October 2008
50 167
1.6
50 079
1.9
50 122
1.8
November 2008
51 258
2.2
51 442
2.7
51 327
2.4
December 2008
52 478
2.4
52 996
3.0
52 617
2.5
January 2009
53 713
2.4
54 551
2.9
53 837
2.3




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