4102.0 - Australian Social Trends, 1995
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/06/1995
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Population Projections: Projections of the working age population POPULATION STRUCTURE, 1993 AND PROJECTED STRUCTURE, 2041 1993 2041 Source: Population Projections, 1993-2041: Series A; Estimated Resident Population Population growth Australia's population is expected to grow by 41% between 1993 and 2041 and to age rapidly. In the year 2024, it is projected that the number of older people (aged 65 and over) in the population will exceed the number of children (aged 0-14) for the first time. By 2041, there are projected to be 5.5 million older people (22% of the population) and 4.3 million children (17% of the population). The proportion of the population which is of working age (15-64 ) is projected to remain stable at around 67% until 2011 and then to decline to 61% by 2041. In the period to 2011, the total population is projected to grow by 19%. The largest percentage growth (55%) is projected among those aged 45-64. The lowest growth (2%) is projected among those aged 15-24. In the following 30 years, the 65 years and over age group will grow at the fastest rate and the 15-24 years group will continue to grow at the slowest rate. PROJECTED GROWTH OF THE POPULATION
Source: Population Projections, 1993-2041: Series A; Estimated Resident Population Working age population The working age population can be divided into three groups: youth (15-24 years), prime working age (25-44 years) and older working age (45-64 years). The proportions of the working age population in the youth and prime working age groups are projected to decrease over the next 50 years. By 2041, these groups will represent 20% and 41% of the working age population respectively. The proportion of working age people in the 45-64 years age group is projected to increase from 30% in 1993 to 39% in 2041. The age structure of the working age population will therefore be considerably different in 50 years time and Australia will have an older labour force (see Projections of the labour force). People of working age often have family responsibilities, especially for children and ageing parents. Between 1993 and 2041 the proportion of older people is projected to increase from 12% to 22% while the proportion of children is projected to decrease from 22% to 17%. Children are financially, socially and physically dependent on their parents although the extent of dependency decreases with age. However, they are increasingly remaining in dependent situations beyond the age of 15 (see Australian Social Trends 1994, Living with parents). Conversely, older people are not always financially dependent. However, the working population pays taxes which fund pensions and other government benefits for many of the aged. The aged may become more socially and financially dependent as they get older, especially if they become frail, disabled or suffer ill health. Projected changes in the size of the working age population relative to the young (aged 0-14) and old (aged 65 and over) indicate the changing demands that may be placed on society in the future. The relative size of the older population is projected to increase steadily from 18 for every 100 of working age in 1993 to 21 in 2011, then more rapidly to 36 in 2041. During this period the relative size of the child population is projected to decline from 33 for every 100 of working age in 1991 to 29 in 2011, and remain around 29 until 2041. The slow growth of the child population implies a relative decrease in government outlays on children's services. However, this will only partly offset the likely increase in outlays associated with ageing, particularly on health services and income support, which are much higher than the outlays associated with children2 PROJECTIONS OF WORKING AGE PEOPLE Source: Population Projections, 1993-2041: Series A; Estimated Resident Population PROJECTED GROWTH OF THE WORKING AGE POPULATION
Source: Population Projections, 1993- 2041: Series A; Estimated Resident Population State projections Over the period 1993-2041, the projected increases in the numbers of people of working age are expected to vary between the states and territories, depending on the age structures of their populations and the projected levels of fertility, mortality and net migration. Queensland is expected to experience the greatest proportional increase in the working age population (73%), followed by the Northern Territory, Australian Capital Territory (both 63%) and Western Australia (52%). South Australia is projected to experience a slight decrease in the number of people of working age. Alternate net overseas migration level The level of net overseas migration gain assumed for projection series A rises from 40,000 in 1993-94 to 70,000 in 1999-2000 and then remains constant. An alternate scenario is provided by series D in which net overseas migration gain is assumed to rise to 100,000 in 2000-01 and then remain constant. The impact of this alternative is that the population increases by 51% by 2041 to reach 26.7 million, 1.8 million more than under the series A assumption. However, the projected age distribution in 2041 does not change significantly.
Endnotes 1 Young, C. (1993) Population projections for Australia, What can they tell us? People and Place Vol.1 No.1. 2 Household Expenditure Survey, Australia: the Effects of Government Benefits and Taxes on Household Income (cat. no. 6537.0).
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