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3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/11/2013   
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MEDIA RELEASE
26 November 2013
Embargoed: 11.30 am (Canberra time)
207/2013


Australia's population projected to double by 2075

Australia's population is projected to double to 46 million by 2075, according to the latest population projections released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

"Based on our projections, with medium growth, Australia will double its population by the year 2075," said Bjorn Jarvis, Director of Demography at the ABS, "but under our high and low scenarios it could be as early as 2058, or after 2101."

"Highlights from the ABS projections include Perth overtaking Brisbane in 2028, at three million people, and then ten years later, the Australian Capital Territory overtaking Tasmania.

"Melbourne and Sydney should be neck and neck by 2053, with 7.9 million people each."

"By 2040, Western Australia's population is projected to almost double in size, from 2.4 million people in 2012 to 4.7 million. Queensland will have gone from 4.6 million people to 7.3 million, and the Australian Capital Territory will have grown from 375,000 people to 586,000.

The population of the Northern Territory is projected to grow from 240,000 people in 2012 to 360,000 people in 2040 (a 51 per cent increase), Victoria 5.6 million to 8.4 million (50 per cent), New South Wales 7.3 million to 9.9 million (35 per cent), South Australia 1.7 million to 2.1 million (26 per cent) and Tasmania 510,000 to 570,000 (11 per cent). Tasmania's population is projected to level out by around 2040 and then fall slightly from 2047 onwards.

Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

"The ageing of Australia's population as a result of sustained low fertility, combined with increasing life expectancy is likely to continue. In 2012 Australia's median age was 37 years old; by 2040 it could be 40.5 years." said Mr Jarvis.

In addition, the number of people 65 and over is projected to double, from 3.2 million people, (14 percent of the population) in 2012 to 6.8 million (20 percent) by 2040.

Similarly, the number of people aged 85 years and over is projected to almost triple by 2040, increasing by 770,000 people to reach 1.2 million in 2040. By then, people aged 85 years or over will make up four per cent of Australia's population, compared to only two per cent in 2012.

Further information is available in Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0), available for free download from the ABS website.

Media Notes:
  • A short video about today's statistics will be available from about 12.30pm - Click to watch.
  • Data from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0) will also be available in ABS.Stat, an interactive, free online tool that presents data in a searchable, flexible and dynamic way (this can be accessed here from about 2:00pm today.
  • Population projections are not intended as forecasts or predictions, but are illustrations of growth and change in the population that would occur if assumptions made about future demographic trends were to prevail over the projection period.
  • When reporting ABS data you must attribute the Australian Bureau of Statistics (or the ABS) as the source.

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