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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2010 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/08/2010   
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FEATURE ARTICLE: INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS — 2009–10


ALL MOVEMENTS

In the year ended June 2010, there were a record 25.9 million crossings of Australia's international borders (original series). This represents 1,167 crossings per 1,000 persons of the Australian population. Ten years ago (1999-2000) there were 16.4 million border crossings, representing 863 crossings per 1,000 persons of the Australian population. The majority of movements were short-term (96%). Short-term movements have an intended duration of stay in Australia, or absence from Australia, of less than one year.

Just over half of the total movements in 2009-10 were arrivals to Australia (13.0 million). They were comprised of 6.7 million Australian residents returning after a short-term absence from Australia, 5.7 million visitors arriving for a short-term stay and 605,100 permanent and long-term arrivals.

Just under half of the total movements in 2009-10 were departures from Australia (12.9 million). They were comprised of 6.8 million Australian residents departing short-term, 5.8 million visitors departing Australia after a short-term stay and 362,000 permanent and long-term departures.

Short-term resident departures have continued to exceed short-term visitor arrivals since the year ended June 2008 when departures overtook arrivals for the first time in 22 years (see figure below). In the year ended June 2010 resident departures exceeded short-term visitor arrivals by 1.1 million movements, more than three times the difference for the year ended June 2009 (302,100 movements). In the year ended June 2008, resident departures were higher than visitor arrivals by only 70,100 movements.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia: Original series
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia: Original series


A traveller may cross Australia's borders many times in a year and each movement is counted in these statistics. For more information, see the 1st paragraph of the PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS section in the MAIN FEATURES.


Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series. Over the ten year period ending June 2010, trend estimates while showing monthly fluctuations, have recorded long-term growth. Between the beginning of 2007 and mid 2008 the series was relatively stable but has fluctuated from June 2008 to the end of 2009, possibly due to the combined effect of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the outbreak of swine flu. Over the six months to June 2010, the series has remained stable. The highest point in the series was in December 2009 (483,000 movements) while the lowest point was in December 2001 (389,100 movements).

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


Seasonally adjusted estimates

Irregular impacts on the short-term visitor arrivals series are demonstrated by the seasonally adjusted series. The graph above shows that over the ten year period ending June 2010, a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Major events that have coincided with decreases in the seasonally adjusted series include the terrorist attacks in the United States of America on 11 September 2001 and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in mid-2003. The increase in movements in September 2000 reflects the large number of arrivals at the time of the Sydney Olympic Games and the increase in July 2008 reflects the large arrivals due to World Youth Day, also held in Sydney.
Original estimates

In original terms, a record 5.7 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia in the year ended June 2010. The next highest recorded number of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia was in the year ended Jun 2007 (5.6 million). Ten years ago (1999-2000), 4.7 million short-term visitors arrived in Australia.

The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten source countries (based on 2009-10) for short-term visitor arrivals. For each of the years, New Zealand was the largest contributor of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia (19.7% in 2009-10). Japan was the second top contributor in 1999-2000 (15.2%) but its contribution has declined over time (6.4% in 2009-10). Of the top ten source countries, short-term visitor arrivals from China recorded the strongest growth over the period with contributions of 2.3% in 1999-2000 and 6.9% in 2009-10.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years

1999-2000
2004-05
2009-10
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Source countries(a)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

New Zealand
773.1
16.6
1 082.0
20.0
1 123.4
19.7
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
554.4
11.9
699.5
12.9
652.8
11.5
United States of America
436.9
9.4
445.5
8.2
488.6
8.6
China
105.0
2.3
274.4
5.1
393.9
6.9
Japan
705.5
15.2
700.8
13.0
363.9
6.4
Singapore
277.0
6.0
267.5
4.9
289.9
5.1
Malaysia
146.8
3.2
169.0
3.1
214.3
3.8
Korea(c)
139.4
3.0
237.3
4.4
196.1
3.4
Germany
147.2
3.2
142.4
2.6
163.0
2.9
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
149.0
3.2
148.9
2.8
154.3
2.7
All other countries
1 217.5
26.2
1 241.0
22.9
1 652.3
29.0
Total
4 651.8
100.0
5 408.3
100.0
5 692.4
100.0

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates for 2009-10.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.


Age and sex

When 1999-2000 and 2009-10 were compared, the peak age group for all short-term visitor arrivals remained the 25-29 years age group (contributing 12.9%, and 11.4% respectively). More recently, the age distribution of visitors arriving was older, with the proportion travelling within the 50-69 years age group increasing from 24.3% in 1999-2000 to 27.6% in 2009-10. Conversely, the proportion travelling in the 25-49 years age group decreased from 50.3% in 1999-2000 to 45.3% in 2009-10. The median age of all short-term visitor arrivals increased from 37.4 years in the year ended June 2000, to 39.1 years in the year ended June 2010.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Financial Years

1999-2000
2004-05
2009-10
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age group (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
83.8
1.8
115.1
2.1
121.5
2.1
5-9
103.3
2.2
137.0
2.5
131.1
2.3
10-14
140.2
3.0
185.0
3.4
160.1
2.8
15-19
245.6
5.3
313.6
5.8
302.1
5.3
20-24
428.3
9.2
488.1
9.0
579.6
10.2
25-29
600.0
12.9
569.4
10.5
650.7
11.4
30-34
504.8
10.9
550.3
10.2
519.1
9.1
35-39
438.1
9.4
485.9
9.0
468.0
8.2
40-44
402.7
8.7
485.6
9.0
456.9
8.0
45-49
394.3
8.5
463.7
8.6
482.7
8.5
50-54
389.3
8.4
450.1
8.3
477.5
8.4
55-59
317.2
6.8
424.8
7.9
440.3
7.7
60-64
246.4
5.3
313.6
5.8
392.2
6.9
65-69
175.3
3.8
217.5
4.0
262.2
4.6
70-74
106.2
2.3
119.3
2.2
144.1
2.5
75 and over
76.3
1.6
89.4
1.7
104.4
1.8
Total
4 651.8
100.0
5 408.3
100.0
5 692.4
100.0



When examined by gender, the peak age group remained the same 25-29 years for both male and female short-term visitors. However, for male visitors, the contribution of the peak age group fell from 11.8% in 1999-2000 to 10.6% in 2009-10, and for female visitors, the contribution fell from 14.1% in 1999-2000 to 12.2% in 2009-10. The median ages of males and females increased to 39.9 years and 38.0 years respectively in the year ended June 2010. The comparative medians were 38.5 years and 36.0 years respectively in the year ended June 2000.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Age and Sex
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia—Age and Sex


More males than females arrive for short-term stays in Australia but the disparity between the numbers is decreasing. The short-term visitor arrival sex ratio (the number of male arrivals per 100 female arrivals) was 107 males in 1999-2000 compared with 103 males in 2009-10. The highest sex ratios were recorded in the 40-44 years age group in 1999-2000 (146 males) and also in 2009-10 (136 males). The lowest sex ratios were in the 20-24 years age group in 1999-2000 (73 males) and the 15-19 years age group in 2009-10 (83 males per 100 female arrivals).

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia - Sex ratios at age
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia—Sex ratios at age


Main reason for journey

In the year ended June 2010, the most frequently cited main reason for journey to Australia by short-term visitor arrivals was holiday (46%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (11%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2000 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (56%), visiting friends and relatives (19%) and business (10%). The median duration of stay for all short-term visitor arrivals has remained the same in both 1999-2000 and 2009-10 (11 days).

State of stay

New South Wales was the intended state of stay for 39% of all short-term visitors to Australia in the year ended June 2010. The other state/territory shares were Queensland with 25%, Victoria 20%, Western Australia 10%, South Australia 3%; and Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory 1% each. In 1999-2000, the intended state of stay proportions for short-term visitor arrivals were mainly similar but some differences were recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 42%, Queensland 29% and Victoria 15% of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia.
Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates

Trend estimates provide the best approach to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series. The trend estimate series for short-term resident departures has shown long-term growth over the last 10 years ending June 2010. From late 2000 to mid 2003 the trend series, while fluctuating changed little. From mid 2003 to June 2010, the series mainly recorded strong long-term growth. The high point in the series was June 2010 (595,700 movements) while the low point was in December 2001 (274,300 movements). Breaks were recorded in the series at October 2002, December 2003, October 2005, December 2006 and April 2009. For more information, see Explanatory Notes paragraph 25.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


Seasonally adjusted estimates

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. During the ten years ending June 2010, the seasonally adjusted estimate has mainly recorded strong growth. During the period commencing late 2000 and ending late 2003 movements remained relatively stable, with two exceptions coinciding with the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the emergence of SARS in mid 2003. Additional factors that may have contributed to short-term resident departures remaining stable during this period include the low Australian dollar in 2000, the bombing in Bali in October 2002 and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq in early 2003. Strong movement in the series from early 2008 coincided with the Global Financial Crisis, the high Australian dollar, cut-price air fares and the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and March/April 2009. Original estimates

In original terms, a record 6.8 million residents travelled overseas for short-term visits in the year ending June 2010 (31% of Australia's population). This compared with 5.8 million in the year ending June 2009. Ten years ago (1999-2000), there were 3.3 million residents departing Australia short-term (18% of Australia's population).

The following table shows, for selected years, the top ten destination countries (based on 2009-10) for short-term resident departures. While the proportion decreased for New Zealand when 2004-05 (18.4%) and 2009-10 (15.7%) were compared, it remained the largest contributor to short-term resident departures from Australia for each of the selected periods. Indonesia's contribution fell slightly between 1999-2000 (7.7%) and 2004-05 (7.5%) reflecting the Bali bombing in 2002 but increased again by 2009-10 (9.6%) notwithstanding the second Bali bombing in 2005. Australian short-term resident departures increased to Thailand (from 4.4% in 1999-2000 to 6.4% in 2009-10), China (from 2.6% in 1999-2000 to 4.5% in 2009-10) and Fiji (from 3.2% in 1999-2000 to 4.2% in 2009-10).

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years

1999-2000
2004-05
2009-10
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Destination countries(a)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

New Zealand
506.7
15.2
843.0
18.4
1 064.0
15.7
Indonesia
256.8
7.7
344.0
7.5
652.8
9.6
United States of America
373.7
11.2
394.5
8.6
634.6
9.4
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
330.2
9.9
384.9
8.4
456.2
6.7
Thailand
147.8
4.4
187.0
4.1
432.0
6.4
China
86.3
2.6
214.2
4.7
305.9
4.5
Fiji
107.2
3.2
188.7
4.1
286.4
4.2
Singapore
145.9
4.4
175.9
3.8
246.2
3.6
Malaysia
126.3
3.8
155.5
3.4
239.2
3.5
Hong Kong
149.7
4.5
173.3
3.8
211.2
3.1
All other countries
1 101.6
33.1
1 530.3
33.3
2 242.0
33.1
Total
3 332.3
100.0
4 591.2
100.0
6 770.5
100.0

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates for 2009-10.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


Age and sex

When 1999-2000 and 2009-10 were compared the peak age group for all short-term resident departures remained the 45-49 years age group (10.8% and 9.9% respectively). In recent years, the age distribution of Australian residents travelling overseas was older, with the proportion travelling in the 50-69 years age group increasing from 25.6% in 1999-2000 to 28.5% in 2009-10. Conversely, the proportion travelling in the 25-49 years age group decreased from 50.9% in 1999-2000 to 45.8% in 2009-10. The median age of all short-term resident departures increased from 40.2 years in the year ended June 2000, to 40.6 years in the year ended June 2010.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Financial Years

1999-2000
2004-05
2009-10
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Number
Proportion
Age groups (years)
'000
%
'000
%
'000
%

0-4
93.0
2.8
134.2
2.9
236.4
3.5
5-9
101.3
3.0
139.2
3.0
213.6
3.2
10-14
112.8
3.4
176.1
3.8
256.6
3.8
15-19
141.9
4.3
201.8
4.4
316.4
4.7
20-24
217.4
6.5
298.1
6.5
456.0
6.7
25-29
325.5
9.8
396.7
8.6
626.3
9.2
30-34
321.0
9.6
441.8
9.6
590.8
8.7
35-39
341.3
10.2
419.0
9.1
609.2
9.0
40-44
349.4
10.5
473.1
10.3
599.7
8.9
45-49
360.4
10.8
482.2
10.5
672.9
9.9
50-54
351.2
10.5
459.0
10.0
638.5
9.4
55-59
237.1
7.1
402.8
8.8
568.4
8.4
60-64
157.7
4.7
252.5
5.5
456.3
6.7
65-69
106.7
3.2
154.6
3.4
269.5
4.0
70-74
63.4
1.9
85.2
1.9
142.5
2.1
75 and over
52.1
1.6
74.8
1.6
117.4
1.7
Total
3 332.3
100.0
4 591.2
100.0
6 770.5
100.0



For male Australian residents departing overseas for a short-term stay abroad, the peak age group remained the 45-49 years age group (11.7% in 1999-2000 decreasing to 10.5% in 2009-10). For females the peak age group, while being lower than that for males, remained the same at the 25-29 years age group (10.8% in 1999-2000 decreasing to 10.0% in 2009-10). The median age of males and females increased to 41.6 years and 39.4 years respectively in the year ended June 2010. The comparative medians were 41.3 years and 38.5 years respectively in the year ended June 2000.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Age and Sex
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia—Age and Sex


The disparity between the number of Australian male and female residents departing Australia for short-term stays abroad is decreasing. The short-term resident departures sex ratio (the number of male departures per 100 female departures) was 120 males in 1999-2000 compared with 114 males in 2009-10. The highest sex ratios were recorded in the 35-39 years age group in 1999-2000 (149 males) and the 40-44 years age group in 2009-10 (135 males). The lowest sex ratios were in the 75 years and over age group in 1999-2000 (74 males) and in the 15-19 years age group in 2009-10 (84 males). The age group 75 years and over has seen considerable change with the sex ratio increasing from 74 males in 1999-2000 to 101 males per 100 females in 2009-10. The following graph illustrates, for short-term resident departures, the sex ratios at each age group.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia - Sex ratios at age
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia—Sex ratios at age


Main reason for journey

In the year ended June 2010, the most frequently cited main reason for journey from Australia by short-term resident departures was holiday (55%). This was followed by visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (11%). While the most cited main reasons for journey in the year ended June 2000 were the same, the proportions were different; holiday (46%), visiting friends and relatives (25%) and business (17%). During the 2009-10 period the median duration of overseas stay was 15 days, compared with 16 days in 1999-2000.

State of residence

The largest contributors to short-term travel overseas in the year ended June 2010 were the most populous states. Residents of New South Wales contributed the highest proportion of travellers (35%), followed by Victoria (24%), Queensland (17%), Western Australia (15%), South Australia (5%), the Australian Capital Territory (2%), and Tasmania and the Northern Territory (1% each). In 1999-2000, the state/territory of residence proportions for all short-term resident departures were mainly similar, but some differences were recorded for specific states. They were New South Wales contributing 40%, Queensland 15% and Western Australia 12% of all short-term resident departures from Australia in 1999-2000.

Movement rates

In the year ending June 2010, there was considerable variation in the rate of movement for short-term resident departures (the number of movements per 1,000 state or territory population) across the states and territories. Western Australia had the highest movement rate (434 movements per 1,000 population) followed by the Australian Capital Territory (429), New South Wales (331), the Northern Territory (298), Victoria (295), Queensland (264), South Australia (187) and Tasmania (150). Overall, the Australian movement rate was 306 movements per 1,000 population.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

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