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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jan 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/02/2004   
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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


JANUARY 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles fell by 0.7% from December 2003 to 76,437 in January 2004. The trend estimate has fallen over the last five months following more than 12 months of consecutive growth.

The trend estimate for passenger vehicle sales has declined over the last five months, while the trend estimate for sales of other vehicles has continued to increase.

Growth in the trend estimate of 6.4% was recorded for January 2004 when compared with January 2003. Sales of passenger vehicles increased by 2.3% and sales of other vehicles increased by 13.9% over the period.

The trend estimate for January 2004 fell when compared with December 2003 for all states/territories. Tasmania recorded the largest percentage decrease (3.0%).

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for January 2004 increased by 7.7% when compared with December 2003. The Northern Territory (0.6%) and Australian Capital Territory (0.1%) were the only states/territories to record a decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimate.


NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The February 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the January 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
2The February 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the January 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.

The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 9 years has been 4.0%.

Graph - Trend revisions



SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Graph - TOTAL  NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES - Long term


Graph - TOTAL NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES - Short term


Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change Passenger vehicles (%)
Change Other vehicles (%)
Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2002November
47,229
24,346
71,575
-2.2
1.2
-1.0
December
45,317
22,656
67,973
-4.0
-6.9
-5.0
2003January
40,015
21,155
61,170
-11.7
-6.6
-10.0
February
43,677
23,058
66,735
9.2
9.0
9.1
March
49,921
26,192
76,113
14.3
13.6
14.1
April
44,602
24,263
68,865
-10.7
-7.4
-9.5
May
49,646
28,616
78,262
11.3
17.9
13.6
June
57,086
34,972
92,058
15.0
22.2
17.6
July
51,450
28,071
79,521
-9.9
-19.7
-13.6
August
49,869
26,304
76,173
-3.1
-6.3
-4.2
September
51,749
26,042
77,791
3.8
-1.0
2.1
October
52,180
27,045
79,225
0.8
3.9
1.8
November
48,482
27,630
76,112
-7.1
2.2
-3.9
December
49,834
27,952
77,786
2.8
1.2
2.2
2004January
40,715
24,082
64,797
-18.3
-13.8
-16.7

Seasonally Adjusted

2002November
45,870
24,237
70,107
0.8
-0.6
0.3
December
42,604
22,085
64,689
-7.1
-8.9
-7.7
2003January
46,883
25,602
72,485
10.0
15.9
12.1
February
46,930
24,924
71,854
0.1
-2.6
-0.9
March
48,233
25,666
73,899
2.8
3.0
2.8
April
48,988
26,203
75,191
1.6
2.1
1.7
May
49,923
26,801
76,724
1.9
2.3
2.0
June
50,425
27,297
77,722
1.0
1.9
1.3
July
49,983
27,797
77,780
-0.9
1.8
0.1
August
51,495
27,277
78,772
3.0
-1.9
1.3
September
53,013
27,608
80,621
2.9
1.2
2.3
October
49,294
27,680
76,974
-7.0
0.3
-4.5
November
48,481
28,276
76,757
-1.6
2.2
-0.3
December
45,970
26,996
72,966
-5.2
-4.5
-4.9
2004January
48,882
29,724
78,606
6.3
10.1
7.7

Trend

2002November
45,913
24,719
70,632
0.6
0.4
0.6
December
46,297
24,858
71,155
0.8
0.6
0.7
2003January
46,809
25,062
71,871
1.1
0.8
1.0
February
47,442
25,383
72,825
1.4
1.3
1.3
March
48,128
25,806
73,934
1.4
1.7
1.5
April
48,854
26,260
75,114
1.5
1.8
1.6
May
49,652
26,699
76,351
1.6
1.7
1.6
June
50,512
27,133
77,645
1.7
1.6
1.7
July
51,163
27,474
78,637
1.3
1.3
1.3
August
51,349
27,687
79,036
0.4
0.8
0.5
September
51,036
27,821
78,857
-0.6
0.5
-0.2
October
50,361
27,967
78,328
-1.3
0.5
-0.7
November
49,505
28,147
77,652
-1.7
0.6
-0.9
December
48,645
28,349
76,994
-1.7
0.7
-0.8
2004January
47,890
28,547
76,437
-1.6
0.7
-0.7


Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration

NSW (No.)
Vic. (No.)
Qld (No.)
SA (No.)
WA (No.)
Tas. (No.)
NT (No.)
ACT (No.)
Aust. (No.)

Original

2002November
24,349
19,829
13,224
4,641
6,320
1,398
628
1,186
71,575
December
21,741
19,706
12,672
4,531
5,989
1,584
585
1,165
67,973
2003January
20,648
16,490
11,632
3,988
5,762
1,025
534
1,091
61,170
February
21,965
18,152
12,956
4,754
6,164
1,069
582
1,093
66,735
March
25,541
20,408
14,843
5,147
6,917
1,218
769
1,270
76,113
April
23,588
18,368
13,386
4,507
5,948
1,177
728
1,163
68,865
May
26,259
21,053
14,967
5,273
7,127
1,454
789
1,340
78,262
June
31,168
24,132
18,084
6,089
8,662
1,549
866
1,508
92,058
July
26,983
21,248
15,716
5,298
6,973
1,407
635
1,261
79,521
August
25,391
19,799
15,248
5,263
7,048
1,589
555
1,280
76,173
September
25,738
21,200
15,293
5,222
6,894
1,639
593
1,212
77,791
October
25,533
21,337
15,521
5,430
7,487
2,008
607
1,302
79,225
November
25,099
20,254
15,058
5,214
6,925
1,717
630
1,215
76,112
December
25,113
21,071
15,265
5,404
7,161
1,860
593
1,319
77,786
2004January
21,216
16,857
13,403
4,334
6,249
1,193
498
1,047
64,797

Seasonally Adjusted

2002November
23,747
19,352
13,110
4,516
6,321
1,275
620
1,166
70,107
December
20,982
18,610
12,199
4,327
5,715
1,094
629
1,133
64,689
2003January
24,476
19,685
13,711
4,842
6,571
1,304
658
1,238
72,485
February
24,039
19,539
13,704
4,991
6,466
1,275
670
1,170
71,854
March
24,556
20,081
14,468
4,967
6,583
1,318
697
1,229
73,899
April
25,648
20,201
14,539
5,069
6,406
1,379
694
1,255
75,191
May
25,643
20,759
14,784
5,109
7,037
1,427
676
1,289
76,724
June
26,071
21,083
14,676
5,120
7,300
1,492
670
1,310
77,722
July
25,808
20,802
15,458
5,203
7,140
1,475
644
1,250
77,780
August
26,495
20,524
15,760
5,342
7,189
1,581
602
1,279
78,772
September
27,260
21,189
15,855
5,405
7,318
1,619
677
1,298
80,621
October
24,697
20,092
15,676
5,335
7,280
1,992
632
1,270
76,974
November
24,838
20,373
15,658
5,261
7,106
1,645
639
1,237
76,757
December
23,887
19,685
14,301
5,106
6,865
1,266
624
1,232
72,966
2004January
26,000
20,564
16,056
5,320
7,262
1,553
620
1,231
78,606

Trend

2002November
23,935
19,324
13,467
4,532
6,323
1,255
619
1,177
70,632
December
24,052
19,456
13,545
4,637
6,385
1,262
636
1,182
71,155
2003January
24,245
19,609
13,694
4,760
6,437
1,276
656
1,194
71,871
February
24,521
19,823
13,920
4,878
6,501
1,299
673
1,210
72,825
March
24,843
20,078
14,187
4,979
6,602
1,332
682
1,231
73,934
April
25,195
20,336
14,481
5,059
6,739
1,366
684
1,254
75,114
May
25,606
20,576
14,779
5,124
6,904
1,410
678
1,274
76,351
June
26,055
20,797
15,098
5,186
7,068
1,478
669
1,294
77,645
July
26,380
20,929
15,371
5,244
7,192
1,556
659
1,306
78,637
August
26,453
20,933
15,537
5,289
7,245
1,620
651
1,308
79,036
September
26,293
20,833
15,594
5,307
7,232
1,653
646
1,299
78,857
October
26,005
20,687
15,568
5,303
7,188
1,652
641
1,284
78,328
November
25,661
20,530
15,503
5,285
7,148
1,623
635
1,267
77,652
December
25,332
20,379
15,442
5,265
7,117
1,580
630
1,249
76,994
2004January
25,069
20,266
15,364
5,243
7,103
1,533
625
1,234
76,437


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