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This electronic release contains modelled estimates of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia based on passport transactions for the current month and passenger card disaggregations from earlier months. There is no printed publication available for this release, however, it is closely related to the monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).
The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for August 2004 will be released on 14 October 2004.
This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 – Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).
As of the September 2004 issue (to be released 18 October 2004), the following changes will occur:
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen at firstname.lastname@example.org or telephone (02) 6252 5640.
The trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for August 2004 (440,200 movements) increased by 0.8% compared with July 2004 (436,700 movements). This followed increases of 1.0% for June and 0.9% for July 2004.
According to the trend estimates this is the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the series. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.9% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004 (423,700 movements).
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there were 441,000 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2004, representing a decrease of 0.2% compared with July 2004 (441,700 movements). This followed increases of 1.5% for June and 2.1% for July 2004.
There were an estimated 403,700 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2004. This represents an increase of 11.4% compared with August 2003 (362,200 movements). However, the original time series is affected by seasonal and one-off irregular factors which can distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of trend estimates for time series analysis.
During August 2004, large numbers of short-term visitor arrivals came from New Zealand (95,900 movements), Japan (65,700 movements), the United Kingdom (38,100 movements), the United States of America (33,200 movements), China (16,800 movements) and Singapore (15,500 movements).
Compared with August 2003, there were large increases in the number of short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand (up 22,900 movements or 31%), Japan (up 8,000 movements or 14%) and China (up 4,600 movements or 38%).
TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS - AUGUST 2004
TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE
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