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5250.0 - Australian Business Expectations, Mar 2003 and Dec 2003 (Final)  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/12/2002  Ceased
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KEY FIGURES



Seasonally
SHORT-TERM
Trend
adjusted
Original
MAR QTR 2003
% change
% change
% change

Operating income
0.1
0.5
-2.4
Selling prices
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
Profit
5.3
8.4
-15.8
Employment
-0.7
-0.9
-1.1

MEDIUM-TERM
Trend
adjusted
Original
DEC QTR 2003
% change
% change
% change

Operating income
2.1
n.p.
2.1
Selling prices
0.1
n.p.
0.2
Profit
15.3
n.p.
11.9
Employment
-0.3
n.p.
-0.1


Graph - Short-term, operating income
Graph - Short-term, selling prices


KEY POINTS


SHORT-TERM


Trend

In trend terms Operating income and Profit are expected to increase by 0.1% and 5.3% respectively. Selling prices and full time equivalent Employment are expected to decrease by 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.


Seasonally Adjusted

In seasonally adjusted terms businesses are expecting Operating income and Profit to increase by 0.5% and 8.4% respectively. Selling prices and full time equivalent Employment are expected to decrease by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The expectation for full time equivalent Employment is the twelfth consecutive quarterly decrease.


MEDIUM-TERM


Trend

In trend terms, businesses expect Operating income, Selling prices and Profit to increase by 2.1%, 0.1% and 15.3% respectively. Full time equivalent Employment is expected to decrease by 0.3%.


Original

In original terms, businesses expect increases in Operating income (2.1%), Selling prices (0.2%) and Profit (11.9%). For the third consecutive quarter businesses continue to expect full time equivalent Employment to decrease (0.1%).


NOTES


FINAL ISSUE

The March 2003 issue will be the final release of this publication.

The ABS will cease the compilation and publication of statistics on Australian Business Expectations following the release of this issue of the publication. This decision was made after an assessment of ABS forward work program priorities for Economic Statistics. For more imformation please contact Ross Upson on (02) 62525775 or by email at ross.upson@abs.gov.au.
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.


FURTHER INFORMATION

For further information about these and related statistics, contact Steve Norris on Canberra 02 6252 7587, or the National Information Service on 1300 135 070.


SUMMARY OF RESULTS: Short - term Outlook


OPERATING INCOME


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

In seasonally adjusted terms, businesses expect Operating income to increase by 0.5% in the March quarter 2003. The expectation for Operating income is the largest expected seasonally adjusted increase since the September quarter 2000 (0.8%).


ORIGINAL

In original terms, overall, businesses expect Operating income to decrease by 2.4%. Businesses of all sizes are expecting Operating income to decrease - small businesses by 2.2% and medium businesses by 1.3%. Large businesses are expecting their second largest decrease in Operating income (3.4%) since the commencement of the series in the December quarter 1993.

Graph - Operating income, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in all industries are expecting Operating income to decrease with the exception of businesses in the Finance & insurance industry where an increase of 0.2% is expected. Businesses in the Property & business services industry expect the largest decrease (3.5%) in Operating income.

Graph - Operating income, Main industry comparison



SELLING PRICES


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

In seasonally adjusted terms, businesses expect Selling prices to decrease by 0.5%. This is the second consecutive quarter that businesses have expected Selling prices to decrease in seasonally adjusted terms.


ORIGINAL

In original terms, Selling prices are expected to decrease by 0.5% in the March quarter 2003. Small businesses expect a decrease of 0.6% while both medium and large businesses are both expecting Selling prices to decrease by 0.4%. The expected 0.5% decrease in Selling prices is the largest expected decrease recorded since the commencement of the series in the December quarter 1993.

Graph - Selling prices, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in all industries are expecting Selling prices to decrease in the short term with the exception of businesses in the Wholesale industry which expect Selling prices to increase by 0.2%. Businesses in the Property & business services and Electricity, gas & water industries are expecting the largest decreases in Selling prices (2.1% and 1.8% respectively).
Graph - Selling prices, main industry comparison



PROFITS


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

In seasonally adjusted terms, businesses expect Profit to increase by 8.4% in the March quarter 2003. The expectation for Profit is the second consecutive seasonally adjusted quarterly increase and also the largest expected increase since the December quarter 1997.


ORIGINAL

In original terms, businesses expect Profit to decrease by 15.8% in the March quarter 2003. Businesses of all sizes and in all states are expecting decreases in Profit with small, medium and large businesses expecting decreases of 14.8%, 11.1% and 20.5% respectively.

Graph - Profits, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in all industries are expecting Profit to decrease in the March quarter 2003. The largest decrease is expected by businesses in the Wholesale industry (33.8%).

Graph - Profits, Main industry comparison



EMPLOYMENT


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

In seasonally adjusted terms, businesses continue to expect a decrease in full time equivalent Employment (0.9%). The expectation for full time equivalent Employment is the fifth consecutive seasonally adjusted quarterly decrease.


ORIGINAL

In original terms, businesses expect full time equivalent Employment to decrease by 1.1%. Medium and large businesses expect decreases of 1.2% and 0.8% respectively in full time equivalent Employment. Small businesses continue to expect decreases in full time equivalent Employment and have recorded their eleventh successive quarterly decrease with an expected decrease of 1.3% in the March quarter 2003.
Graph - Employment, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in all industries are expecting that full time equivalent Employment will decrease in the March quarter 2003. The largest decreases are expected in the Retail (2.6%), Electricity, gas & water (2.3%) and the Construction industries (2.1%). The expected decrease in the Retail industry is the largest ever recorded decrease for a March quarter expectation since the commencement of the series in the December quarter 1993.

Graph - Employment, main industry comparison



SUMMARY OF RESULTS: Medium-term Outlook


OPERATING INCOME


ORIGINAL

In original terms, Operating income is expected to increase by 2.1% in the December quarter 2003. Businesses of all sizes are expecting Operating income to increase. Small businesses by 0.1%, medium businesses by 1.6% and large businesses by 5.7%.


Graph - Operating income, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in the Transport, storage & communication industry and the Manufacturing industries are expecting the largest increases in Operating income of 5.7% and 4.3% respectively. The largest decrease in Operating income in expected by businesses in the Property & business services industry (1.0%).

Graph - operating income, main industry comparison


SELLING PRICES


ORIGINAL

In original terms, businesses are expecting Selling prices to increase by 0.2% in the December quarter 2003. Medium and large businesses are expecting Selling prices to increase (0.5% and 1.1% respectively) while small businesses are expecting Selling prices to decrease by 0.2%.

Graph - selling prices, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in the Wholesale and Retail industries are expecting g the largest increases in Selling prices of 1.4% and 0.8% respectively. The largest decreases in Selling prices are expected by those businesses in the Electricity, gas & water (1.3%) and the Mining industries (1.2%).


Graph - selling prices, main industry comparison


PROFITS


ORIGINAL

In original terms, businesses are expecting Profit to increase by 11.9% in the December quarter 2003. Medium and large businesses expect Profit to increase (12.7% and 30.8% respectively) while small businesses are expecting that Profit will decrease by 0.4%.

Graph - profits, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in the Manufacturing, Transport, storage & communication and Wholesale industries are expecting the largest increases in Profit (50.3%, 20.7% and 13.1% respectively). The expected increase in Profit for the Manufacturing industry is the largest ever expected increase recorded since the commencement of the series in the September quarter 1994. The largest decrease is expected by businesses in the Construction industry (1.4%).

Graph - profits, main industry comparison



EMPLOYMENT


ORIGINAL

In original terms, businesses expect that full time equivalent Employment will decrease by 0.1% in the medium term. This is the third consecutive quarter that businesses are expecting full time equivalent Employment to decrease. Small and medium businesses are expecting decreases of 1.0% and 0.7% respectively while large businesses expect full time equivalent Employment to increase by 1.3%.

Graph - Employment, original



MAIN INDUSTRY COMPARISON

Businesses in most industries predict that full time equivalent Employment will decrease in the December quarter 2003. The industries expecting the largest decreases are the Electricity, gas & water (2.1%), Construction (1.9%) and Manufacturing industries (1.6%) whilst the industry expecting the largest increase in full time equivalent Employment is the Transport, storage & communication industry (2.0%).

Graph - Employment, main industry comparison



ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION

The publication presents estimates of percentage change in key business performance indicators obtained from a sample survey of business in all industries except General government and Agriculture, forestry and fishing.

Short-term expectations are provided for the next quarter, while medium-term expectations are provided with respect to the current quarter of the following year.

The data are presented at the ANZSIC division level, by State and by size of business.


OTHER ABS DATA


Available data

The amount of data collected from the Survey of Business Expectations is much greater than the data contained in this publication. Subject to the ABS provisions for maintaining the confidentiality of respondents and their information, more detailed information by industry and size of business may be made available on request.


Size of business

The size of business is based on employment. Additional data can be estimated for the following size ranges:
  • less than 20 employees;
  • 20 to 99 employees;
  • 100 to 599 employees;
  • 600 or more employees;
  • small (less than 20 employees except for manufacturers, where it is less than 100 employees);
  • medium (20 to 99 employees except for manufacturers, where it is 100 to 599 employees); and
  • large (100 or more employees except for manufacturers, where it is 600 or more employees).


Industry

Industry is classified according to ANZSIC and is available at the 1 and 2 digit level. Additional data is available for:
    • 15 industries categorised at the one digit ANZSIC level;
    • 47 industries categorised at the two digit ANZSIC level; and
    • user defined industry groups such as 'service industries'.


State Information

State information has been derived from the business activity conducted by business in each State. Where sufficient information is available to provide satisfactory estimates, data may be made available at the same level of detail as that for Australia. State information is subject to a greater degree of variance than the Australia data.



Net Balance

A weighted net balance for industries and size of business can be produced as a special data service.



CONTACT DETAILS

For further information about Business Expectations statistics, contact Canberra 0262527587 or E-mail s.norris@abs.gov.au.

For more information regarding other statistics contact:

The National Information Service on 1300 135 070 or fax 1300 135 211, or E-mailclient.services@abs.gov.au.

See also:

ABS Catalogue No. 8140.0

Business Operations and Industry Performance, Australia, 2000-2001

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