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8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Mar 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/05/2004   
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MARCH KEY FIGURES

Mar 04
Feb 04 to Mar 04
Mar 03 to Mar 04
no.
% change
% change

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,474
-1.5
2.7
Total dwelling units
13,957
-1.8
-0.7

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,604
2.3
8.2
Total dwelling units
13,934
-4.4
-2.3

Dwelling units approved, Total number
Graph: Dwelling units approved

Private sector houses approved, Total number
Graph: Private sector houses approved


MARCH KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.8% in March 2004, the sixth consecutive monthly fall.
  • The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.5% in March 2004. The trend has fallen for six consecutive months.
  • The trend estimate for other dwellings approved fell 2.5% in March 2004. This is the sixth consecutive monthly fall.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 4.4%, to 13,934, in March 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved rose 2.3%, to 9,604, in March 2004. This was driven by rises in Victoria (8.4%) and Queensland (4.2%).
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved fell 16.7%, to 4,212, in March 2004, following a 14.3% rise in the previous month.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 0.6%, to $4,064.7 million, in March 2004. Residential building fell 1.9%, to $2,922.7 million, while non-residential building rose 7.7%, to $1,142.0 million.


NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:

1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04

New South Wales
1
24
16
74
215
7
Victoria
-
-
-
-
2
-
Queensland
9
5
74
104
34
37
South Australia
-
106
12
33
21
-
Western Australia
-
8
26
99
5
-2
Tasmania
14
5
-
1
-
-1
Northern Territory
-
-
-
-
-
-
Australian Capital Territory
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL
24
148
128
311
277
41



DATA NOTES

Estimates have been included in this issue for three councils in New South Wales unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month (Cabonne, Mosman and Yarrowlumla).

A special article on 'Engineering Construction' is available on the ABS website.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.


VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has been relatively flat over the last seven months, and fell marginally (-0.2%) in March 2004.

Graph: Value of new residential building approved


ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last six months, following ten months of growth. The trend fell 2.0% in March 2004.

Graph: Value of alterations and additions to residential buildings


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last seven months. The trend fell 2.2% in March 2004.

Graph: Value of non-residential building approved


DWELLINGS APPROVED

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved has fallen for the last six months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 1.8% in March 2004.

Graph: Total dwelling units approved


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last six months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 1.5% in March 2004.

Graph: Private sector houses approved


OTHER DWELLINGS

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved has fallen for the last six months, following four months of growth. The trend fell 2.5% in March 2004.

Graph: Other dwellings approved

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.8% in March 2004. The trend fell in all states and territories except Western Australia (+0.3%), Tasmania (+1.6%) and the Australian Capital Territory (+4.2%).

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.5% in March 2004. The trend fell in all states.

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust.

Original

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,935
3,125
2,737
770
1,728
257
52
94
10,698
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,665
3,826
3,996
983
2,094
274
86
202
15,126
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
6.6
18.9
20.5
14.6
20.3
38.9
147.6
-24.8
16.9
Total dwelling units (%)
-5.5
13.1
27.0
19.0
4.4
37.0
4.9
-6.5
10.1

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,815
2,750
2,394
673
1,593
na
na
na
9,604
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,472
3,571
3,460
798
2,112
259
na
na
13,934
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-6.5
8.4
4.2
-1.3
-0.5
na
na
na
2.3
Total dwelling units (%)
-17.9
3.5
1.7
-9.0
-
13.0
na
na
-4.4

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,796
2,674
2,423
663
1,580
na
na
na
9,474
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,626
3,559
3,458
843
2,037
243
83
179
13,957
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-1.7
-1.5
-1.6
-1.9
-0.9
na
na
na
-1.5
Total dwelling units (%)
-0.6
-3.1
-1.4
-2.9
0.3
1.6
-5.4
4.2
-1.8

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED

State Trends

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has fallen for the last seven months, following four months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last seven months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved in NSW


VICTORIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Victoria has fallen for the last seven months, following seven months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last seven months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved in Vic.


QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last six months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the for the last five months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved in Qld.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last six months, following five months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last seven months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved in SA


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has been relatively flat for the last five months, following five months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last four months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved in WA

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES

TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.


The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the April seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the March estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the April seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the March estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph: Private sector houses approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Mar 2004
(2) falls by 4% on Mar 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
November
10,100
-1.5
10,090
-1.6
10,113
-1.5
December
9,935
-1.6
9,927
-1.6
9,939
-1.7
2004
January
9,768
-1.7
9,787
-1.4
9,756
-1.8
February
9,614
-1.6
9,684
-1.1
9,581
-1.8
March
9,474
-1.5
9,622
-0.6
9,429
-1.6
April
-
-
9,607
-0.2
9,316
-1.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

OTHER DWELLINGS
Graph: Other dwellings approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 13% on Mar 2004
(2) falls by 13% on Mar 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
November
4,851
-2.9
4,869
-2.8
4,906
-2.5
December
4,673
-3.7
4,694
-3.6
4,712
-4.0
2004
January
4,537
-2.9
4,575
-2.5
4,526
-3.9
February
4,452
-1.9
4,529
-1.0
4,367
-3.5
March
4,341
-2.5
4,511
-0.4
4,205
-3.7
April
-
-
4,573
1.4
4,111
-2.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

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