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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Aug 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/10/2003   
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KEY FIGURES



Jul 03
Aug 02
Aug 03
to Aug 03
to Aug 03
%
%
'000
change
change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
416.1
0.4
. .
Seasonally adjusted
393.0
0.4
. .
Original
362.2
. .
-2.6
Short-term resident departures
Trend
289.9
0.2
. .
Seasonally adjusted
290.0
2.8
. .
Original
296.9
. .
4.8


Graph: Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures, Short-term


KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES
  • Trend estimates in this issue take into account the impact of recent world events. See paragraphs 21 and 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
  • Based on the most recent months of data, it is uncertain whether the recovery in short-term arrivals of overseas visitors has plateaued or continues increase. These estimates may be revised in subsequent months.
  • The trend estimate for short-term departures of Australian residents for August 2003 (289,900 movements) represents a continuing monthly increase since April 2003.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
  • From July 2003, concurrent seasonal adjustment replaced the forward factor method used to derive seasonally adjusted estimates. See paragraphs 15 to 18 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
  • In seasonally adjusted terms short-term visitor arrivals for August (393,000 movements) increased by 0.4% compared to July 2003. This increase was not as strong as that experienced in June (11%) or July (8%).
  • Short-term departures of Australian residents for August 2003 (290,000 movements) increased by 3% compared to July 2003. Again, this increase is not as strong as that experienced in June (8%) or July (12%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms there were 362,200 short-term visitors to Australia in August 2003, a decrease of 3% compared to August 2002 (371,900).
  • There were 296,900 short-term departures of Australian residents, an increase of 5% compared to August 2002 (283,400).


NOTES


PRELIMINARY DATA

Preliminary estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for September 2003 will be available on the ABS website http:\\www.abs.gov.au on 14 October 2003. These estimates can be accessed by going to the home page and selecting Main Features (located under Statistical Products and Services) and then 34. Migration. Select Short-term Visitor Arrivals to Australia, Preliminary (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).


DATA NOTES

For data quality issues see appendix 2.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Key Points and/or Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 11 of Explanatory Notes for more detail.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There is no special article in this issue.

Concurrent seasonal adjustment replaced the forward factor method used to derive seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals and short-term resident departures from July 2003. See paragraphs 15 to 18 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Trend estimates in this issue have been revised to take into account the impact of recent world events. See paragraphs 21 and 22 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


MAIN FEATURES

RECOVERY OF SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS AND RESIDENT DEPARTURES FROM RECENT WORLD EVENTS

Seasonally adjusted estimates of short-term visitor arrivals and short-term resident departures for August 2003, continue to indicate a recovery from the down-turn experienced during March and April 2003. However, the monthly increase experienced by both visitor arrivals and resident departures for August, 0.4% and 3% respectively, is not as strong as the monthly increase experienced in June and July 2003.

The strong monthly increase experienced for June and July appears to be the result of people taking postponed travel. The weaker monthly increase experienced for August may be an early indication of a return to 'normal' international passenger movements albeit at new trend levels.


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In original terms, the top ten source countries for short-term visitor arrivals for August 2003 and the percentage and numeric change compared to August 2002 are presented in the table below.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Major Source Countries - August 2003

August
August
Numeric
Percentage
2003
2002
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

New Zealand
73.0
75.0
-2.1
-2.7
Japan
57.7
69.1
-11.4
-16.5
United Kingdom
36.9
35.3
1.6
4.5
United States of America
31.3
30.7
0.6
2.1
Korea
15.5
14.5
1.0
7.0
Singapore
15.2
18.4
-3.2
-17.2
China
12.1
15.0
-2.9
-19.1
Malaysia
11.6
10.7
1.0
9.0
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
11.2
12.2
-0.9
-7.8
Germany
11.1
9.1
2.0
22.3




SHORT-TERM VISITOR DEPARTURES

There were 413,400 visitor departures in August 2003. Compared to August 2002, there was a decline in the number of visitors who indicated that they spent the most time in the Northern Territory (down 30%), Western Australia (down 7%), New South Wales (down 6%) and Queensland (down 5%). There was an increase in the number of visitors who stated that they spent the most time in Victoria (up 2%).


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In original terms, the top ten destinations of short-term resident departures for August 2003 and the percentage and numeric change compared to August 2002 are presented in the table below.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Major Destinations - August 2003

August
August
Numeric
Percentage
2003
2002
change
change
'000
'000
'000
%

New Zealand
51.8
43.3
8.6
19.8
United Kingdom
34.3
31.4
2.9
9.3
Indonesia
19.0
27.9
-8.9
-31.9
United States of America
23.6
22.7
0.9
4.0
Thailand
10.3
15.1
-4.8
-31.8
Singapore
12.6
10.6
1.9
18.2
China
10.6
10.6
-0.1
-0.7
Fiji
13.4
10.6
2.8
26.2
Malaysia
8.4
9.3
-0.9
-10.2
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
9.6
8.9
0.6
7.0



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 9,930 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during August 2003, an increase of 21% (1,690 movements) compared to August 2002. Settlers born in the United Kingdom (18%) accounted for the largest proportion of permanent arrivals for August 2003. The second largest proportion of settlers were born in New Zealand (10%).

Care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 5,350 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during August 2003.

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