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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, May 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 15/06/2004   
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This electronic release contains modelled estimates of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia based on passport transactions for the current month and passenger card disaggregations from earlier months. There is no printed publication available for this release, however, it is closely related to the monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).



NOTES


DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for May 2004 will be released on 13 July 2004.

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 10 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen at c.beruldsen@abs.gov.au or telephone (02) 6252 5640.


MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

Trend estimates have been revised to take into account the impact of recent world events. See paragraph 18 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

The trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for May 2004 (419,900 movements) decreased by 0.3% compared with April 2004 (421,300 movements) and followed decreases of 0.6% for March and 0.4% for April 2004. This trend estimate for May 2004 was 2.8% below the series turning point in November 2003 (432,100 movements).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

According to seasonally adjusted estimates, there were 422,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2004, representing little difference compared with the number of movements recorded in April 2004 (422,800 movements). This followed revised increases of 0.2% for March and 0.3% for April 2004.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

There were an estimated 341,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during May 2004. This represents an increase of 30.9% compared with May 2003 (260,900 movements). However, the original time series is affected by such events as the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq, which resulted in fewer than usual visitor arrivals for the first half of 2003.

During May 2004, large numbers of short-term visitor arrivals came from New Zealand (75,900 movements), Japan (50,600 movements), the United States of America (29,400 movements) and the United Kingdom (29,300 movements). Compared with May 2003, there were large increases in the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Southeast and Northeast Asia (up 33% and 95% respectively), particularly from Japan (up 21,100 movements or 71%) and China (up 11,200 movements or 363%). These large increases reflect the significant impact that world events had on travel to Australia from those destinations during 2003, with short-term visitor arrivals currently at similar levels experienced during the same period in 2002.


TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS - MAY 2004

Apr 04
May 03
May
to May
to May
04
04
04
%
%
'000
change
change
Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend(a)
419.9
-0.3
..
Seasonally adjusted(a)
422.6
..
Original
341.6
..
30.9

— nil or rounded to zero (including null cells).
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See paragraphs 14 and 17 of the Explanatory Notes.



TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT: VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE

Calendar year

Financial year

Quarter ended Mar

May

2002
2003
2001-02
2002-03
2003
2004
2003
2004(a)
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA -
New Zealand
790.1
839.1
787.7
793.1
150.7
188.9
67.0
75.9
Total
905.0
956.5
907.5
904.7
181.2
220.8
74.8
84.8
EUROPE & THE FORMER USSR -
Germany
134.8
137.9
136.8
134.0
38.8
41.0
6.7
6.1
Italy
43.3
41.3
41.1
42.5
10.1
10.2
1.5
2.0
Netherlands
53.0
51.0
54.6
52.1
14.9
13.7
2.0
2.1
Sweden
30.9
31.8
30.2
31.8
10.2
10.8
0.9
1.0
Switzerland
41.5
40.9
43.4
41.2
12.5
12.3
1.6
1.7
United Kingdom
642.7
672.8
627.1
644.2
196.3
205.4
28.0
29.3
Total
1180.5
1212.0
1172.2
1170.4
344.2
362.6
49.4
53.5
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA -
Total
51.5
52.7
56.3
50.2
12.1
13.0
2.4
2.9
SOUTHEAST ASIA -
Indonesia
89.4
90.3
94.7
86.9
19.9
21.3
5.9
4.8
Malaysia
159.0
155.6
154.3
142.4
33.2
39.3
10.0
14.4
Philippines
28.5
27.0
29.9
25.4
5.5
7.2
2.5
3.2
Singapore
286.9
253.4
295.8
261.6
58.3
51.7
13.7
21.0
Thailand
82.7
73.2
80.0
75.5
18.7
18.9
4.7
6.1
Total
673.8
625.3
682.7
617.7
141.9
144.5
38.9
51.8
NORTHEAST ASIA -
China
190.0
176.1
172.3
177.1
62.1
72.1
3.1
14.3
Japan
715.5
627.7
659.2
658.6
176.1
185.2
29.5
50.6
Korea
189.7
207.3
181.1
195.8
60.2
60.4
10.7
15.9
Taiwan
97.4
87.7
99.1
80.8
25.8
25.5
2.3
9.2
Total
1345.5
1230.0
1262.4
1254.8
358.3
378.7
51.6
100.5
THE AMERICAS -
Canada
90.9
87.9
93.0
86.5
29.0
31.1
4.4
5.2
USA
434.5
422.1
424.4
423.5
112.9
114.0
28.3
29.4
Total
556.2
537.5
551.1
537.1
149.3
153.2
34.0
36.3
AFRICA (excluding North Africa) -
South Africa
51.0
52.7
55.7
47.5
10.7
12.5
3.3
2.8
Total
67.3
69.2
72.7
62.7
14.6
17.1
4.3
3.7
Total(b)
4841.2
4745.9
4768.3
4655.8
1216.6
1307.3
260.9
341.6

(a) May 2004 data are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to May 2004 are final estimates based on passenger card data.
(b) Includes Southern Asia and not stated/inadequately described.

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