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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Jun 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 11/08/2006   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

April 2006
May 2006
June 2006
May 06 to Jun 06
$m
$m
$m
% change

TREND

Balance on goods and services
-1 233
-1 243
-1 305
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
16 881
17 078
17 227
1
Debits (imports of goods & services)
18 114
18 321
18 532
1

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Balance on goods and services
-1 097
-2 219
-722
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
17 050
16 558
17 827
8
Debits (imports of goods & services)
18 147
18 777
18 549
-1

. . not applicable

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



JUNE KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,305m in June 2006, an increase of $62m on the revised deficit in May.
  • Goods and services credits rose $149m (1%) to $17,227m. Goods and services debits rose $211m (1%) to $18,532m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $722m in June, a decrease of $1,497m on the revised deficit in May.
  • Goods and services credits rose $1,269m (8%) to $17,827m. Non-rural and other goods rose $1,278m (11%) and rural goods rose $19m (1%). Services credits fell $28m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits fell $228m (1%) to $18,549m. Intermediate and other goods fell $257m (3%) and capital goods fell $35m (1%), while consumption goods rose $50m (1%). Services debits rose $14m.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the June balance on goods and services was a deficit of $924m, a decrease of $1,334m on the revised deficit in May. Goods and services credits rose $1,049m (6%) and goods and services debits fell $285m (2%).

2005-06 SITUATION
  • For 2005-06, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $16.5b. This is a decrease of $8.0b on the 2004-05 deficit resulting from a $27.8b (17%) increase in exports partially offset by a $19.8b (10%) increase in imports of goods and services.
  • Exports of non-rural and other goods were up $26.5b (26%) while rural goods were down $0.4b (2%) compared to 2004-05.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
July 2006 8 September 2006
August 2006 4 October 2006
September 2006 2 November 2006
October 2006 29 November 2006
November 2006 10 January 2007
December 2006 2 February 2007



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and trade in services. In original terms, these revisions have:
  • increased the deficit on goods and services for May 2006 by $15m
  • increased the deficit for the 11 months to May 2006 by $10m.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Revised treatment of goods for processing in merchandise trade and Balance of Payments statistics


The classification of some imports and exports transactions to goods for processing has changed from this issue and earlier series have been revised. A feature article, Revised treatment of goods for processing in merchandise trade and Balance of Payments statistics, describing the change was released on 14 July 2006 with the May issue of this publication. The article can be accessed on the ABS web site www.abs.gov.au from the summary page of the May issue.


The impact on the estimates varies for each financial year but in broad terms the impact on goods credits (exports) for 2004-05 is that goods for processing has been reduced by about $700m and non-monetary gold increased by the same amount. For 2004-05 the goods for processing component of goods debits (imports) has been reduced by almost $3b and the non-monetary gold and processed industrial supplies n.e.s. components have been increased by about $2b and $1b, respectively. This reclassification does not impact on the balance of goods and services in original terms.


Preliminary goods debits chain volume measures and index outcomes


Details of preliminary goods debits chain volume measures and price outcomes could not be provided in time for the release of this issue on 11 August 2006. These details will be available from the ABS web site on 15 August 2006 as additional information in the June 2006 issue of International trade in Goods and Services, Australia (cat. no. 5368.0).

INFORMATION PAPER

Two of the international classifications used to present Balance of Payments and merchandise trade statistics (the Harmonized system and SITC) are being updated. A discussion paper, ABS implementation in January 2007 of revisions to international trade classifications, 2007 (cat. no. 5368.0.55.005) outlining ABS broad implementation plans was released on 9 June and is available from the Noticeboard of the Foreign Trade theme page of the ABS web site www.abs.gov.au.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Olivia Lam on Canberra (02) 62525540.



ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in June 2006 was a deficit of $1,305m, an increase of $62m on the deficit in May.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in June 2006 was a deficit of $722m, a decrease of $1,497m on the deficit in May.


The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2006 was a deficit of $4,038m, a decrease of $67m on the deficit of $4,105m for the three months to March 2006. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the preliminary June quarter 2006 deficit was $4,144m, a decrease of $407m on the revised March quarter 2006 deficit of $4,551m.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $149m (1%) between May and June to $17,227m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,269m (8%) to $17,827m. Non-rural goods rose $1,012m (10%), other goods rose $266m (23%), and rural goods rose $19m (1%). Services credits fell $28m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: Goods Credits



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports fell $10m to $2,155m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $19m (1%) to $2,144m.


Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

  • wool and sheepskins, up $33m (17%)
  • meat and meat preparations, up $21m (4%)
  • other rural, up $20m (2%).

Offsetting these effects was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $55m (12%).


In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $69m (3%) to $2,175m.


Non-rural goods

The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports rose $103m (1%) to $10,508m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,012m (10%) to $11,027m.


The main movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to the rise were:

  • metal ores and minerals, up $573m (22%)
  • other mineral fuels, up $151m (15%)
  • other manufactures, up $120m (10%)
  • coal, coke and briquettes, up $79m (4%)
  • metals (excluding non-monetary gold), up $67m (6%).

Partly offsetting these effects was other non-rural, down $45m (4%).


In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $926m (9%) to $11,162m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • metal ores and minerals, up $385m (14%), compared to an average May to June rise of 2% over the previous three years, of which metalliferous ores and metal scrap, up $369m (14%)
  • other mineral fuels, up $177m (20%), in contrast to an average May to June fall of 1% over the previous three years, of which:
      • petroleum, petroleum product, up $144m (34%)
      • gas, natural and manufactured, up $33m (7%).

Other goods

The trend estimate of other goods exports rose $59m (5%) to $1,311m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods rose $266m (23%) to $1,429m.


The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series was non-monetary gold, up $286m (31%).


In original terms, exports of other goods rose $269m (23%) to $1,424m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: Services Credits



In trend terms, services credits fell $3m to $3,253m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits fell $28m (1%) to $3,227m.


The movements in the seasonally adjusted compents contributing to this fall were:

  • transportation services, down $13m (2%)
  • travel services, down $9m (1%)
  • other services, down $6m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits fell $14m (1%) to $2,062m.



IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $211m (1%) between May and June to $18,532m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $228m (1%) to $18,549m. Other goods fell $238m (25%), capital goods fell $35m (1%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $19m, while consumption goods rose $50m (1%). Services debits rose $14m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



CONSUMPTION GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $44m (1%) to $4,389m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $50m (1%) to $4,419m.


The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $55m (5%)
  • textiles, clothing and footwear, up $8m (1%)
  • consumption goods n.e.s., up $7m (1%).

Offsetting these effects were:
  • food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $9m (2%)
  • household electrical items, down $7m (2%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $15m to $4,287m.


CAPITAL GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods fell $6m to $3,399m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $35m (1%) to $3,401m.


The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

  • capital goods n.e.s., down $160m (25%)
  • civil aircraft, down $60m.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $152m (13%)
  • ADP equipment, up $33m (7%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $5m to $3,632m.


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate goods rose $132m (2%) to $6,646m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate goods imports fell $19m to $6,723m.


The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

  • organic and inorganic chemicals, down $69m (19%)
  • fuels and lubricants, down $33m (1%)
  • parts for transport equipment, down $32m (5%).

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $44m (45%)
  • iron and steel, up $30m (13%)
  • other merchandise goods, up $28m (28%).

In original terms, intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $280m (4%) to $6,719m.


OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of other goods rose $40m (5%) to $812m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods imports fell $238m (25%) to $708m.


The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were goods for processing, down $119m (91%) and non-monetary gold, down $119m (17%).


In original terms, other goods imports fell $244m (26%) to $707m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits rose $1m to $3,286m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $14m to $3,298m.


The seasonally adjusted component contributing to this rise was transportation services, up $38m (3%).


Offsetting this effect were:

  • travel services, down $19m (2%)
  • other services, down $5m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $21m (1%) to $1,718m.

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