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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/11/2003   
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KEY FIGURES


Sep Qtr 03
Jun Qtr 03 to
Sep Qtr 02 to
Sep Qtr 03
Sep Qtr 03
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates (a)
Total new capital expenditure
13,768
1.8
11.9
Buildings & structures
3,401
2.1
15.4
Equipment, plant & machinery
10,350
1.5
10.6
Seasonally adjusted (a)
Total new capital expenditure
13,941
4.1
13.9
Buildings & structures
3,470
4.6
15.9
Equipment, plant & machinery
10,470
3.9
13.2

(a) In volume terms.

Graph - New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms

KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 1.8% in the September quarter 2003, continuing the increases of the previous eight quarters.
  • Trend expenditure on buildings and structures (up 2.1%) and equipment, plant and machinery (up 1.5%) increased for the seventh and ninth consecutive quarters respectively. However, the growth in expenditure on both asset classes and at the total level has slowed over the past four quarters.
  • The trend estimate for expenditure by Mining continued to rise steadily for the thirteenth consecutive quarter, while the trend estimate for Manufacturing has increased over the past nine quarters.
  • The trend estimate for expenditure by Other selected industries rose by 1.0% in the current quarter after two quarters of similar growth.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE
  • This issue includes the fourth estimate for 2003-04.
  • Estimate 4 for 2003-04 is $50,623m. This estimate is 3.0% higher than the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and 2.3% higher than Estimate 3.
  • See pages 5 and 6 for further commentary on expectations data.

NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

ABBREVIATIONS

ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics
ANZSICAustralian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification


FURTHER INFORMATION

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Didier Rivet on Sydney 02 9268 4357.



ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE TREND


QUARTERLY TREND ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

BY ASSET

The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased for the seventh consecutive quarter in September quarter 2003. The rate of growth has slowed to 2.1% from a high growth rate of 7.3% in September quarter 2002. The trend estimate for Mining (up 4.8%) and Other selected industries (up 2.0%) increased, while Manufacturing fell by 2.7%. The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery has increased for the past nine quarters with each major industry group contributing to this increase. The rate of growth (up 1.5%) was, however, the lowest increase of the past nine quarters.
Graph - Trend Estimates By Asset


BY INDUSTRY

Trend estimates for expenditure by Mining continued to rise steadily for the thirteenth consecutive quarter. In trend terms expenditure on both buildings and structures (up 4.8%) and equipment, plant and machinery (up 2.5%) continued to increase this quarter. The trend estimate for expenditure by Manufacturing increased for the ninth consecutive quarter. While the trend level is the highest recorded, growth slowed to 1.7% in the September quarter 2003, the lowest increase since September quarter 2001. Building and structures fell by 2.7%, the second consecutive quarter of small falls. Equipment, plant and machinery increased for the ninth consecutive quarter. The trend estimate for Other selected industries rose by 1.0% in the September quarter 2003, recording a small
increase similar to that for the previous two quarters. Expenditure on buildings and structures and equipment, plant and machinery both increased slightly.
Graph - Trend Estimates by Industry



ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6.

Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in Paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:


Table: Financial years at current prices


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The fourth estimate for 2003-04 is 2.3% higher than the third estimate recorded last quarter. Estimates for most industries increased with Construction, Retail and Finance and insurance being particularly strong. Both Mining and Manufacturing expectations for 2003-04 remained relatively unchanged. Expected expenditure for 2003-04 is currently 3.0% higher than the comparable estimate for 2002-03.

Graph - Fin Year esimates, Total


CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 4 for 2003-04 is 3.7% lower than estimate 3 recorded in the previous quarter. Manufacturing, Transport and storage, Wholesale and Mining all contributed significantly to this fall, while the remaining industries had moderate increases. The fourth estimate is 22% stronger than the comparable estimate for 2002-03.

Graph - Fin Year Estimates, Building


CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The fourth estimate for 2003-04 is 5.4% higher than the third estimate for 2003-04. This increase was driven by all industries. In particular Retail, Transport and storage and Construction all experienced significant increased expectations from the previous quarter.

Estimate 4 for 2003-04 is 3.9% lower than estimate 4 for 2002-03, with Transport and storage and Other services largely responsible for this fall.
Graph - Fin Year Estimates, Equipment





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