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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Feb 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/03/2004   
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February Key Figures

KEY FIGURES

December
January
February
Jan 04 to Feb 04
$m
$m
$m
% change

Trend

Balance on goods & services
-1,923
-1,900
-1,891
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
11,714
11,761
11,775
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,637
13,661
13,666
-

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on goods & services
-2,458
-1,870
-1,716
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
11,493
12,067
11,639
-4
Debits (imports of goods & services)
13,951
13,937
13,355
-4

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services
Graph: Balance on goods and services



February Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,891m in February 2004, a decrease of $9m on the deficit in January.
  • Goods and services credits rose $14m to $11,775m. Goods and services debits rose $5m to $13,666m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,716m in February, a decrease of $154m on the deficit in January.
  • Goods and services credits fell $428m (4%) to $11,639m, with goods credits down $463m (5%), and services credits up $35m (1%). Non-rural and other goods fell $444m (6%), and rural goods fell $19m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits fell $582m (4%) to $13,355m, with goods debits down $589m (5%), and services debits up $7m. Consumption goods fell $420m (11%), capital goods fell $280m (11%), while intermediate and other goods rose $111m (2%).


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the February balance on goods and services was a deficit of $118m, a decrease of $1,665m on the deficit in January. Goods and services credits rose $803m (7%), and goods and services debits fell $862m (7%).
  • In the eight months to February, exports of non-rural and other goods were down $6.3b (10%) and rural goods were down $3.0b (17%) on the corresponding period in 2002-03.



NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Revisions to Historical Data


In original terms, revisions since the previous issue have decreased the deficit on goods and services for the seven months to January 2004 by $409m. The revision to the January 2004 estimate was a decrease on the deficit of $104m.


The revisions are the result of incorporating the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and the quarterly Survey of International Trade in Services.



CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-6 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 7-10 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.



Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra 02 6252 6792.



Analysis and comments


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in February 2004 was a deficit of $1,891m, a decrease of $9m on the deficit in January.


In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in February 2004 was a deficit of $1,716m, a decrease of $154m on the deficit in January.



EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $14m in February to $11,775m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $428m (4%) in February to $11,639m. Non-rural and other goods fell $444m (6%), rural goods fell $19m (1%), while services credits rose $35m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS
Graph: credit_graph_Goods cr grph



Rural goods

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $58m (3%) to $2,057m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods fell $19m (1%) to $2,100m.


Rural goods in original terms, rose $223m (12%) to $2,073m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • other rural, down $57m (7%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • meat and meat preparations, up $119m (35%), compared with an average January to February rise of 47% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $88m (17%), compared with an average January to February fall of less than 1% over the previous three years.


Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports fell $55m (1%) to $6,778m.


Seasonally adjusted, non-rural and other goods fell $444m (6%) to $6,603m.


In original terms, non-rural and other goods rose $161m (3%) to $6,263m.


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Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • adjustments made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account the length of the month and different trading day patterns in January and February, which contributed about 4 percentage points to the fall
  • other goods, down $227m (27%), compared with an average January to February fall of 3% over the previous three years
  • machinery, up $114m (28%), compared with an average January to February rise of 50% over the previous three years
  • other mineral fuels, down $108m (15%), compared with an average January to February fall of 9% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:
  • metals (excluding gold), up $69m (13%), in contrast to an average January to February fall of 8% over the previous three years
  • other manufactures, up $243m (29%), compared with an average January to February rise of 22% over the previous three years.

Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
Graph: credit_graph_Servs cr grph



In trend terms, services credits rose $11m to $2,940m.


Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $35m (1%) to $2,936m.


Contributing to this rise were travel services, up $80m (5%) seasonally adjusted.


Partly offsetting this effect were:

  • other services, down $23m (3%)
  • passenger and other transportation services, down $22m (4%).


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $5m in February to $13,666m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $582m (4%) to $13,355m.


Consumption goods fell $420m (11%), capital goods fell $280m (11%), while intermediate and other goods rose $111m (2%) and services debits rose $7m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS
Graph: GOODS DEBITS



Consumption goods

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods fell $2m to $3,542m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $420m (11%) to $3,349m.


Consumption goods imports, in original terms, fell $127m (4%) to $3,097m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • textiles, clothing and footwear, down $89m (19%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 4% over the previous three years
  • consumption goods n.e.s., down $41m (4%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 2% over the previous three years
  • non-industrial transport equipment, up $24m (3%), compared with an average January to February rise of 7% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were household electrical items, up $19m (8%), compared with an average January to February rise of 5% over the previous three years.


Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods fell $17m (1%) to $2,563m.


Seasonally adjusted, imports of capital goods fell $280m (11%) to $2,375m.


In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $361m (15%) to $2,021m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • civil aircraft, down $310m (94%), in contrast to strong January to February rises in recent years
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $22m (7%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 9% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these was telecommunications equipment, up $61m (29%), compared with an average January to February rise of 6% over the previous three years.


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Intermediate and other goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $28m (1%) to $4,710m.


In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $111m (2%) to $4,805m.


Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, fell $23m (1%) to $4,460m.


Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

  • fuels and lubricants, up $127m (17%), in contrast to an average decrease between January and February of 17% over the previous three years
  • other merchandise goods, up $150m (231%), in contrast to an average decrease between January and February of 3% over the previous three years
  • iron and steel, down $15m (9%), compared with an average January to February fall of 21% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects were:
  • other goods, down $112m (24%), in contrast to an average January to February rise of 3% over the previous three years
  • organic and inorganic chemicals, down $47m (18%), compared with an average January to February fall of 11% over the previous three years
  • food and beverages mainly for industry, down $18m (30%), compared with an average January to February fall of 2% over the last three years.

Imports of Services
SERVICES DEBITS
Graph: SERVICES DEBITS



In trend terms, services debits fell $4m to $2,851m.


Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $7m to $2,826m mainly due to increased passenger and other transportation services, up $31m (8%). This was partly offset by reduced travel services, down $24m (2%).


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