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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 24/02/2005   
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DECEMBER KEY FIGURES

Dec Qtr 04
Sep Qtr 04 to Dec Qtr 04
Dec Qtr 03 to Dec Qtr 04
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates(a)
Total new capital expenditure
14,788
3.3
9.4
Buildings & structures
4,022
1.8
10.2
Equipment, plant & machinery
10,743
3.6
8.8
Seasonally adjusted(a)
Total new capital expenditure
14,951
5.7
9.9
Buildings & structures
4,057
3.5
10.7
Equipment, plant & machinery
10,894
6.5
9.6

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms



DECEMBER KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 3.3% in the December Quarter 2004. It increased by 5.7% in seasonally adjusted terms.
  • The rate of growth of the trend estimate was relatively weak in 2003-04 but has increased in the past two quarters and is now comparable to the growth of two years ago. Strong expectations indicate that this growth may continue throughout 2004-05.
  • The trend estimate for equipment, plant and machinery has grown strongly over the past three quarters while buildings and structures has continued the steady growth of the past twelve quarters.
  • Other selected industries has driven most of the recent growth, with Mining and Manufacturing growing at more moderate rates.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE
  • This issue includes the fifth estimate for 2004-05 and the first estimate for 2005-06.
  • Estimate 5 for 2004-05 is $54,896m. This estimate is 8.2% higher than the comparable estimate for 2003-04 and 1.7% higher than Estimate 4.
  • Estimate 1 for 2005-06 is $45,074m. This is 8.1% higher than Estimate 1 for 2004-05.
  • See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.


NOTES



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Fiona Cotsell on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.



ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN VOLUME TERMS


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure increased by 3.3% in the December quarter 2004. After a short period where the rate of growth had slowed, the rate of growth has been increasing for the past two quarters.

Graph: Total Capital Expenditure, CVM



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased by 1.8% this quarter, the twelfth consecutive increase. Both Manufacturing and Mining increased this quarter (up 9.3% and 2.2% respectively) while Other selected industries remained relatively unchanged.

Graph: Building, CVM



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery increased by 3.6% in the December quarter 2004. The estimate has been increasing since June quarter 2001 and has grown strongly in the past two quarters. Mining and Other selected industries were responsible for this quarter's increase, while Manufacturing was flat.

Graph: Equipment, Plant and Machinery, CVM



MINING

The trend estimate for Mining increased by 2.6% this quarter, the second quarter of growth after three quarters of decreases. Buildings and structures has had steady growth over the past six quarters, with most of the increase over the past two quarters contributed by equipment, plant and machinery expenditure.

Graph: Mining, CVM



MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing trend estimates increased by 1.7%, the third consecutive quarter of growth. Buildings and structures has had strong growth for the past three quarters while equipment, plant and machinery has been relatively flat.

Graph: Manufacturing, CVM



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Trend estimates for Other selected industries increased by 3.5% in the December quarter 2004. The estimate has been increasing since September quarter 2001, with the rate of growth being relatively steady. Equipment, plant and machinery had strong growth this quarter (up 4.7%) at a similar rate to recent quarters, while buildings and structures was flat this quarter.

Graph: Other Selected Industries, CVM



ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:



Diagram: Financial Years at Current Prices



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The fifth estimate for 2004-05 is $54,896m, which is 8% higher than the comparable estimate for 2003-04 and slightly higher than the fourth estimate for 2004-05. Most industries are relatively unchanged since Estimate 4, with the exception of Construction, Wholesale and Retail, which have increased.


The first estimate for 2005-06 is 8% higher than the first estimate for 2004-05. The increase was mainly driven by Manufacturing, although most other industries also increased their expectations from last year.


Diagram: Financial Year esimates, Total



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 5 for 2004-05 is 24% higher than Estimate 5 for 2003-04. Manufacturing has had the strongest increase (up 66%) with Mining, Construction and Wholesale also contributing strongly. Estimate 5 is relatively unchanged from the previous estimate for 2004-05.


Estimate 1 for 2005-06 is 13% stronger than Estimate 1 for 2004-05. All industries other than Retail and Transport have increased.



Diagram: Financial Year Estimates, Building



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The fifth estimate for 2004-05 is relatively unchanged since the comparable estimate for 2003-04, and slightly higher than Estimate 4 for 2004-05. Increases from the fourth estimate in Construction (up 36%) and Retail (up 25%) have offset a fall in Mining (down 10%).


The first estimate for 2005-06 is 5% higher than Estimate 1 for 2004-05. Most industries have shown an increase, with the exception of Mining (down 19%) and Construction (down 11%).



Diagram: Financial Year Estimates, Equipment



MINING

Estimate 5 for 2004-05 for Mining is 7% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2003-04, but has fallen 6% since Estimate 4 for 2004-05. The decrease is contributed by both asset types.


The first estimate for 2005-06 for Mining is 3% lower than Estimate 1 for 2004-05. An increase in buildings and structures has not offset a decrease in equipment, plant and machinery. Despite this decrease, expectations are still at high levels.



Diagram: Financial Year esimates, Mining



MANUFACTURING

The fifth estimate for 2004-05 is 14% higher than Estimate 5 for 2003-04, and is unchanged from the previous estimate for 2004-05. All the growth from 2003-04 has come from buildings and structures.


Estimate 1 for 2005-06 is 14% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05. Expenditure on buildings and structures has increased significantly since the previous financial year and contributes the majority of the increase.



Diagram: Financial Year esimates, Manufacturing



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Estimate 5 for 2004-05 has increased 6% since estimate 4, and is 7% higher than the comparable estimate for 2003-04. All the increase has come from equipment, plant and machinery.


The first estimate for 2005-06 is 11% higher than Estimate 1 for 2004-05. The majority of this increase is from equipment, plant and machinery.



Diagram: Financial Year esimates, Other Selected Industries



EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.


The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on December quarter 2004 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2006. Please see the paragraphs 28 to 32 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes of this series.



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Current price trend estimates for total Capital Expenditure have been increasing in recent quarters. Expectations for the next eighteen months suggest that expenditure will be relatively flat, increasing slightly into the next financial year. Other selected industries is expecting to increase into the next financial year, while Mining and Manufacturing are expected to decrease slightly.

Graph: TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Trend estimates for buildings and structures have shown strong growth since June quarter 2002 in current price terms. Expectations indicate that this growth will continue at similar rates over the next six months, and will then start flatten out over the next financial year. Mining and Manufacturing are expecting a decrease over the next financial year which is offsetting strong growth in Other selected industries.

Graph: BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Current price trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery have increased significantly over the past two quarters. However expectations indicate that the recent growth rates will not continue, and growth will flatten out into the next financial year. Over the next six months, Mining and Other selected industries are expected to decrease while Manufacturing expectations indicate a slight increase in expenditure.

Graph: EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY



MINING

Trend estimates for Mining have increased slightly for the past two quarters after a small period of decreases. Expectations indicate this growth will continue for the current financial year, and then start to decrease slightly over the 2005-06 financial year. Both equipment, plant and machinery and buildings and structures are contributing to the expected decrease.

Graph: Mining



MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing trend estimates in current price terms have been increasing for the past two quarters, after a period of decline. Expectations for the next six months indicate strong growth will occur until the end of the current financial year. The expected growth is across both asset types. However, expectations for 2005-06 indicate that this strong growth is temporary and that growth will decline over the next financial year.

Graph: Manufacturing



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Current price trend estimates for Other selected industries have increased significantly over recent quarters. Expectations for the current financial year indicate this growth will flatten out over the next six months. However, expectations indicate that there will be strong growth over the next financial year. Transport and Storage, Other Services and Property and Business are contributing to the expected increase.

Graph: Other Selected Industries

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