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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/12/2005   
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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

Sep Qtr 05
Jun Qtr 05 to Sep Qtr 05
Sep Qtr 04 to Sep Qtr 05
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates(a)
Total new capital expenditure
16 320
5.1
22.2
Buildings & structures
5 201
5.0
26.3
Equipment, plant & machinery
11 047
4.5
19.8
Seasonally adjusted(a)
Total new capital expenditure
16 303
2.9
23.0
Buildings & structures
5 358
10.1
32.3
Equipment, plant & machinery
10 945
-0.3
18.9

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms



SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure increased by 5.1% in the September quarter 2005. It rose by 2.9% in seasonally adjusted terms after a rise (10.6%) in the June quarter 2005.
  • A strong increase in seasonally adjusted expenditure on buildings and structures (up 10.1%) has been the source of growth this quarter, mainly driven by the Mining and Manufacturing industries.
  • Seasonally adjusted expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery decreased slightly (0.3%) due to a fall in expenditure by Other selected industries more than offsetting rises in Mining and Manufacturing.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
  • This issue includes the fourth estimate for 2005-06.
  • Estimate 4 for 2005-06 is $63,621m. This estimate is 17.9% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05 and 11.6% higher than Estimate 3.
  • See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.


NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As happens each year, a seasonal re-analysis has been undertaken based on estimates up to and including the June quarter 2005. As part of this year's re-analysis, a number of the aggregation structures were amended to bring the seasonal adjustment methodology more into line with that used for the equivalent National Accounts series. This has resulted in revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates for most time series in this release.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Janine Phasavath on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.



ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN VOLUME TERMS


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure increased 5.1% in the September quarter 2005, the third consecutive quarter of similar growth. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 2.9% this quarter due to an increase in buildings and structures of 10.1%

Graph: Total Capital Expenditure, CVM



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased 5.0% this quarter, the growth rate falling slightly after two quarters of stronger growth. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate increased 10.1%. The increase this quarter is driven by Manufacturing, up 15.2% and Mining, up 9.1%.

Graph: Building, CVM



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery have eased this quarter to 4.5%. The September quarter estimate, in seasonally adjusted terms, has fallen slightly by 0.3%. Both Mining and Manufacturing rose 13.6% and 15.8% respectively, while Other selected industries fell 8.1%.

Graph: Equipment, Plant and Machinery, CVM



MINING

The trend estimate for Mining increased by 10.3% this quarter, the third quarter of strong growth. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased 11.0%, maintaining the growth seen last quarter. Equipment, plant and machinery is the main contributor, with 13.6% seasonally adjusted growth and buildings and structures recorded a 9.1% increase.

Graph: Mining, CVM



MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing trend estimates increased 6.5%, the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate has increased strongly by 15.6%. The increase is across both asset types with equipment, plant and machinery up 15.8% and buildings and structures up 15.2%.

Graph: Manufacturing, CVM



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Trend estimates for Other selected industries have recorded the smallest trend rise of the past 7 quarters, increasing 2.6%. In seasonally adjusted terms, Other selected industries fell 4.1% due to a decrease in equipment, plant and machinery expenditure of 8.1%.

Graph: Other Selected Industries, CVM



ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:


Table: Composition of estimate







TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The fourth estimate for 2005-06 is $63,621m which is 17.9% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05 and 11.6% higher than the third estimate for 2005-06. All industries have increased since Estimate 3 for this financial year. Mining and Manufacturing contributed largly to the increase with above average increases in Construction, Wholesale and Retail.

graph: Actual & Expected Capex : Total capital expenditure



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 4 for 2005-06 is 23.7% higher than Estimate 4 for 2004-05 and 11.7% higher than Estimate 3. All industries have increased since Estimate 3 for this financial year. Mining and Manufacturing have increased this quarter, along with Construction, Finance and Insurance and Property and Business Services.


graph: Actual and Expected Capex - Building and Structures



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The fourth estimate for 2005-06 is 14.4% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05 and 11.5% higher than Estimate 3 for 2005-06. All industries have increased since Estimate 3, with the exception of Other Services, showing a decline of -1.1%. Retail, Wholesale, Construction and Transport and storage have all increased significantly since Estimate 3.


graph: Actual and Expected Capex - Equipment, plant and machinery



MINING

Estimate 4 for 2005-06 has increased by 23.4% compared to Estimate 4 for the 2004-05 year and is 14.0% higher than Estimate 3 for this financial year. Mining industry expectations continued to have strong growth this quarter due to increased expectations for both equipment, plant and machinery and buildings and structures. Estimate 4 has further raised the expectations in the Mining industry over the next 9 months.


graph: Actual and Expected Capex - Mining



MANUFACTURING

Estimate 4 is 16.2% higher than the comparable estimate for 2004-05 and 7.2% higher than Estimate 3 for 2005-06. Expected expenditure for buildings and structures drove the increase with a 14.5% rise on Estimate 3 for 2005-06. Expected expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery rose by 4.2% this quarter.


graph: Actual and Expected Capex - Manufacturing



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Estimate 4 for 2005-06 is 16.4% above the corresponding estimate for 2004-05 and is 12.7% higher than Estimate 3 for this financial year. Equipment, plant and machinery is contributing to the majority of this growth, with Construction, Wholesale, Retail and Transport and storage showing increases on Estimate 3.


graph: Actual and Expected Capex - Other selected industries



EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.


The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on September quarter 2005 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2006. Please see paragraphs 28 to 32 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for this series.



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Current price trend estimates for total capital expenditure have increased sharply during 2004-05. Estimates are expected to maintain the level shown over the past 5 quarters and then decline towards the end of the 2005-06 financial year. All major industry groups are expecting a reduction in growth rates for the remainder of 2005-06.

Graph: Projected Total Expenditure



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

In current price terms, trend estimates for buildings and structures have displayed sustained growth over the past three years. The expectations for the coming months, indicate a levelling in growth rather than a decline. Other selected industries are indicating little growth for the remainder of the current financial year, while Mining and Manufacturing are indicating a decrease for 2005-06.

Graph: Projected Building Expenditure



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Current price trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery, for the 2004-05 financial year, showed strong growth rates. Expectations gathered this quarter, indicate that the estimates will start to decline from next quarter and until the end of the 2005-06 financial year. The largest decline in expectations is coming from the Manufacturing industry, while expectations from Mining and Other selected industries are expecting a levelling of growth rates during the 2005-06 financial year.

Graph: Projected Equipment Expenditure



MINING

Trend estimates for Mining in current price terms have increased strongly over the last 4 quarters. The recent growth, however, is expected to ease for the rest of 2005-06. Equipment, plant and machinery is expected to decline next quarter and for the remainder of the financial year, while buildings and structures indicate moderate growth.

Graph: Projected Mining Expenditure



MANUFACTURING

Manufacturing trend estimates in current price terms have shown strong growth during the 2004-05 financial year. Expectations indicate that expenditure has reached a peak this quarter and will decline over the next 9 months. The expected decline over the 2005-06 financial year is in both equipment, plant and machinery and buildings and structures.

Graph: Projected Manufacturing Expenditure



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

The current price trend estimate for Other selected industries has shown strong growth in recent quarters. Estimates show that current levels will be sustained in the coming quarters. Most Other selected industries are expecting a decline in growth rates over the next financial year, with the exception of Transport and storage where growth is expected to increase.

Graph: Projected Other Selected Industries Expenditure

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