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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Aug 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/10/2007   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2007 (470,300 movements) changed little compared with July 2007 (470,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.8% higher than in August 2006.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
Graph: Short-term visitor arrivals



The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2007. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with July 2007 and August 2006.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - August 2007

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 07 to Aug 07
Aug 06 to Aug 07
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
95.8
95.1
101.5
-0.5
8.9
Japan
47.9
48.9
54.7
0.6
-10.8
United Kingdom
56.2
57.3
38.2
-1.0
-3.5
United States of America
37.4
37.2
31.6
-0.4
-1.6
China
29.7
31.4
29.2
1.2
11.4
Korea
22.0
21.8
18.8
-0.1
-2.8
Singapore
22.6
24.0
18.4
0.9
4.0
Malaysia
13.5
14.1
13.7
-0.3
10.6
Hong Kong
12.8
13.6
13.4
0.8
-0.7
Germany
12.9
12.5
11.3
-0.2
6.0



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures (463,000 movements) increased by 1.0% compared with July 2007 (458,500 movements). Short-term resident departures are currently 9.2% higher than in December 2006, when a trend break was introduced.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Graph: Short-term Resident Departures



The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during August 2007. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with July 2007 and August 2006.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - August 2007

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 07 to Aug 07
Aug 06 to Aug 07
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
78.5
79.3
74.0
1.0
8.1
United Kingdom
35.1
35.1
44.4
0.6
0.5
United States of America
39.7
41.7
38.8
1.0
7.6
Thailand
34.2
34.4
32.8
1.8
41.2
Indonesia(a)
23.0
22.9
25.4
0.5
53.9
China
24.0
23.4
21.0
-0.5
9.8
Singapore
19.4
19.0
17.7
1.1
15.3
Fiji
16.4
16.0
16.6
1.2
-5.6
Hong Kong
16.7
16.0
12.7
-0.7
-0.7
Italy
9.9
10.2
12.4
2.5
6.9

(a) Break in trend series from December 2006.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 12,820 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during August 2007, an increase of 5.5% compared with August 2006 (12,160 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (20%), followed by people born in New Zealand (14%), China (10%) and India (9%).


There were 6,720 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during August 2007, an increase of 8.5% compared with August 2006 (6,200 movements).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).



SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - THAILAND

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series for Thailand. Over the ten year period ending August 2007 the trend estimate has varied. The series dipped in 1997, during the Asian financial crisis, but slowly return to expected levels by late 2000. From this point the series was relatively stable with a constant increase evident from mid-2006. The high point during the ten year period was the current month (7,300 movements) and the low point was in April 1998 (3,400 movements). Currently, the number of movements is 23% higher than in August 2006.


The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. Over the ten years to August 2007, a number of large variations are evident for Thailand. While the decrease in early to mid-2003 shows the significant effect of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) the reasons for the large increases in 1998 and 2002 are not obvious.

THAILAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
Graph: THAILAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



In original terms, in the year ended August 2007 short-term visitor arrivals from Thailand represented 1.4% (79,000 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. This was the same as the proportion for the previous twelve months (74,200 movements).


In the year ended August 2007, short-term visitor arrivals from Thailand stated holiday (37%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (17%), education (15%) and business (13%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (51%), visiting friends and relatives (21%), business (11%) and education (5%). The median age of short-term visitors from Thailand was 35 years (39 years for all short-term visitor arrivals), and the median duration of stay was 10 days (also 10 days for all short-term visitor arrivals).


New South Wales (44%), Victoria (24%), Queensland (14%) and Western Australia (13%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitor arrivals from Thailand in the year ended August 2007. The main destinations for all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (28%), Victoria (18%) and Western Australia (10%).



Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series for Thailand. Over the ten year period ending August 2007, trend estimates increased from 1997 to mid-1998, following the Asian financial crisis. From 1999 until early 2005 the trend estimate remained relatively stable. After this point a period of strong growth was recorded with numbers between mid-2005 and August 2007 more than doubling. The high point during the ten year period was the current month (34,200 movements) and the low point was in August 1997 (6,600 movements). Currently, the number of movements is 41% higher than in August 2006.


The large dip in the seasonally adjusted series for Thailand between late 2002 and the end of 2003 coincides with the Bali bombing (Indonesia) in October 2002 and SARS early to mid-2003.

THAILAND, Short-term Resident Departures
Graph: THAILAND, Short-term Resident Departures



In original terms, in the year ended August 2007 short-term resident departures to Thailand represented 6.7% (351,100 movements) of all short-term resident departures from Australia. This was higher than the proportion for the previous twelve months (5.4%, or 260,100 movements).


In the year ended August 2007, short-term resident departures to Thailand stated holiday (80%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives and business (each 6%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term residents departing Australia were holiday (49%), visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (15%). The median age of short-term resident departures to Thailand was 38 years (42 years for all short-term resident departures), and the median duration of stay was 13 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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