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5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Sep 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/11/2007   
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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

July 2007
August 2007
September 2007
Aug 07 to Sep 07
$m
$m
$m
% change

TREND

Balance on goods and services
-1 490
-1 587
-1 667
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
18 234
18 244
18 259
-
Debits (imports of goods & services)
19 724
19 831
19 926
-

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Balance on goods and services
-1 011
-1 665
-1 862
. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)
18 277
18 662
17 916
-4
Debits (imports of goods & services)
19 288
20 327
19 779
-3

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on Goods and Services
Graph: Balance on Goods and Services



SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,667m in September 2007, an increase of $80m on the revised deficit in August.
  • Goods and services credits rose $15m to $18,259m. Goods and services debits rose $95m to $19,926m.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,862m in September, an increase of $197m on the revised deficit in August.
  • Goods and services credits fell $746m (4%) to $17,916m. Non-rural and other goods fell $921m (7%) while rural goods rose $126m (7%). Services credits rose $49m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits fell $548m (3%) to $19,779m. Intermediate and other goods fell $587m (7%), capital goods fell $34m (1%) while consumption goods rose $61m (1%). Services debits rose $11m.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, the September 2007 balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,057m, an increase of $66m on the revised deficit in August. Goods and services credits fell $1,151m (6%) and goods and services debits fell $1,085m (5%).
  • In the three months to September, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $1.0b (3%) while rural goods were down $0.9b (14%) on the corresponding period in 2006-07.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
October 2007 3 December 2007
November 2007 10 January 2008
December 2007 4 February 2008
January 2008 6 March 2008
February 2008 7 April 2008
March 2008 6 May 2008



REVISIONS

Revisions were made to both the balance of payments and merchandise trade series to incorporate the latest available administrative data relating to merchandise trade and international trade in services. In original terms, these revisions have:
  • increased the deficit on goods and services for August 2007 by $45m
  • decreased the deficit on good and services for 2006-07 by $31m.

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of goods and services have been revised as a result of the annual seasonal re-analysis, which reviews the seasonal and trading day factors in more detail than possible in the monthly processing cycle. There were two main changes resulting from this review. First, coal, coke and briquettes credits will only have a length of month adjustment applied for all time periods. Second, the trend break applying to metal ores and minerals credits for April 2006 has been revised from $150m to $500m.


In addition, as advised in the previous issue, ARIMA modelling has been introduced with the annual seasonal re-analysis. For more information on the use of ARIMA modelling see Feature article : Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).


In the September 2007 issue of Merchandise Imports, Australia (cat. no. 5439.0), preliminary analysis showed that goods debits decreased by 4% in seasonally adjusted terms. After processing of additional information, final goods debits decreased by 3%.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Country Groupings


Corrections have been applied to two country groupings used in Merchandise trade country statistics. For all time series, the European Union grouping includes Bulgaria and Romania, making a total of 27 countries. Minor corrections have been made to time series for the OECD grouping so that it includes the current members in all periods.



AUSTRALIAN EXPORTERS

The publication, Number and Characteristics of Australian Exporters, 2006-07 (cat. no. 5368.0.55.001) is scheduled for release on 13 November 2007.



AVAILABILITY OF DETAILED SERVICES DATA

The International trade in services time series spreadsheets for data on a financial year basis to 2006-07 (cat. no. 5368.0.55.003) are being released concurrently with this issue. These are available from the Details tab of this issue.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Selvi Sekhar on Canberra (02) 62525540.


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