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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jul 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 20/08/2004   
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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


CHANGES IN FUTURE ISSUES

From the August 2004 issue of this publication, Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs) will be separately identified in the original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates.

Currently SUVs are included in the other vehicles category. Data will be backdated to January 1994.


JULY 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles fell 0.4% to 78,488 in July 2004, the second consecutive monthly fall. When compared with July 2003 (78,491) the trend estimate has shown little change.

Sales of new passenger vehicles recorded a trend decrease for the third consecutive month, declining 0.8% for July 2004. Sales of other new vehicles increased 0.2% in July 2004, continuing the increasing trend since May 2001.

Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory recorded increases in the trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles in July 2004. All other states and territories recorded decreases.

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of new motor vehicles fell 2.2% to 78,003 in July 2004. Passenger vehicle sales decreased 5.2% to 47,276 and sales of other vehicles increased 2.9% to 30,727 in July 2004.


NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The August 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the July 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
2The August 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the July 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.

The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 9 years has been 4.0%.

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Sensitivity Graph




SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS


Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Long Term


Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Short term


Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change Passenger vehicles (%)
Change Other vehicles (%)
Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2003May
49,646
28,616
78,262
11.3
17.9
13.6
June
57,086
34,972
92,058
15.0
22.2
17.6
July
51,450
28,071
79,521
-9.9
-19.7
-13.6
August
49,869
26,304
76,173
-3.1
-6.3
-4.2
September
51,749
26,042
77,791
3.8
-1.0
2.1
October
52,180
27,045
79,225
0.8
3.9
1.8
November
48,482
27,630
76,112
-7.1
2.2
-3.9
December
49,834
27,952
77,786
2.8
1.2
2.2
2004January
40,715
24,082
64,797
-18.3
-13.8
-16.7
February
47,876
28,001
75,877
17.6
16.3
17.1
March
53,728
32,318
86,046
12.2
15.4
13.4
April
44,079
27,226
71,305
-18.0
-15.8
-17.1
May
46,168
32,111
78,279
4.7
17.9
9.8
June
58,284
38,928
97,212
26.2
21.2
24.2
July
46,724
30,311
77,035
-19.8
-22.1
-20.8

Seasonally Adjusted

2003May
50,179
26,418
76,597
2.3
-0.6
1.2
June
50,097
27,389
77,486
-0.2
3.7
1.2
July
50,028
27,612
77,640
-0.1
0.8
0.2
August
51,171
27,278
78,449
2.3
-1.2
1.0
September
53,079
27,671
80,750
3.7
1.4
2.9
October
49,226
27,676
76,902
-7.3
0.0
-4.8
November
48,344
28,268
76,612
-1.8
2.1
-0.4
December
46,051
27,133
73,184
-4.7
-4.0
-4.5
2004January
49,440
29,727
79,167
7.4
9.6
8.2
February
50,201
29,548
79,749
1.5
-0.6
0.7
March
49,239
29,971
79,210
-1.9
1.4
-0.7
April
48,222
29,187
77,409
-2.1
-2.6
-2.3
May
48,080
30,942
79,022
-0.3
6.0
2.1
June
49,873
29,864
79,737
3.7
-3.5
0.9
July
47,276
30,727
78,003
-5.2
2.9
-2.2

Trend

2003May
49,662
26,657
76,319
1.5
1.6
1.6
June
50,470
27,080
77,550
1.6
1.6
1.6
July
51,067
27,424
78,491
1.2
1.3
1.2
August
51,221
27,646
78,867
0.3
0.8
0.5
September
50,910
27,784
78,694
-0.6
0.5
-0.2
October
50,316
27,967
78,283
-1.2
0.7
-0.5
November
49,643
28,207
77,850
-1.3
0.9
-0.6
December
49,055
28,530
77,585
-1.2
1.1
-0.3
2004January
48,725
28,920
77,645
-0.7
1.4
0.1
February
48,705
29,310
78,015
0.0
1.3
0.5
March
48,846
29,664
78,510
0.3
1.2
0.6
April
48,864
29,964
78,828
0.0
1.0
0.4
May
48,677
30,195
78,872
-0.4
0.8
0.1
June
48,443
30,391
78,834
-0.5
0.6
0.0
July
48,046
30,442
78,488
-0.8
0.2
-0.4

Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration

NSW (No.)
Vic. (No.)
Qld (No.)
SA (No.)
WA (No.)
Tas. (No.)
NT (No.)
ACT (No.)
Aust. (No.)

Original

2003May
26,259
21,053
14,967
5,273
7,127
1,454
789
1,340
78,262
June
31,168
24,132
18,084
6,089
8,662
1,549
866
1,508
92,058
July
26,983
21,248
15,716
5,298
6,973
1,407
635
1,261
79,521
August
25,391
19,799
15,248
5,263
7,048
1,589
555
1,280
76,173
September
25,738
21,200
15,293
5,222
6,894
1,639
593
1,212
77,791
October
25,533
21,337
15,521
5,430
7,487
2,008
607
1,302
79,225
November
25,099
20,254
15,058
5,214
6,925
1,717
630
1,215
76,112
December
25,113
21,071
15,265
5,404
7,161
1,860
593
1,319
77,786
2004January
21,216
16,857
13,403
4,334
6,249
1,193
498
1,047
64,797
February
24,955
19,727
15,901
5,059
7,113
1,297
686
1,139
75,877
March
28,118
22,137
18,611
5,561
8,086
1,343
912
1,278
86,046
April
23,033
19,083
14,831
4,670
6,529
1,229
812
1,118
71,305
May
25,649
20,106
16,373
5,215
7,296
1,513
918
1,209
78,279
June
31,438
23,929
22,026
6,436
8,969
1,982
958
1,474
97,212
July
25,031
19,410
17,141
4,949
7,228
1,449
646
1,181
77,035

Seasonally Adjusted

2003May
25,721
20,744
14,728
5,085
6,946
1,413
662
1,298
76,597
June
25,976
20,948
14,799
5,081
7,256
1,481
657
1,288
77,486
July
25,789
20,877
15,239
5,219
7,110
1,506
648
1,252
77,640
August
26,350
20,431
15,705
5,339
7,184
1,566
600
1,274
78,449
September
27,360
21,185
15,882
5,412
7,326
1,605
686
1,294
80,750
October
24,657
20,088
15,672
5,333
7,266
1,989
634
1,263
76,902
November
24,764
20,317
15,662
5,255
7,103
1,631
647
1,233
76,612
December
23,855
19,772
14,356
5,128
6,918
1,268
645
1,242
73,184
2004January
26,253
20,708
16,241
5,334
7,243
1,524
641
1,223
79,167
February
26,407
20,840
16,627
5,209
7,194
1,522
745
1,205
79,749
March
25,833
20,624
16,785
5,196
7,349
1,416
807
1,200
79,210
April
25,142
20,555
16,147
5,102
7,058
1,458
741
1,206
77,409
May
25,462
20,500
16,878
5,176
7,507
1,519
778
1,202
79,022
June
25,569
20,398
17,370
5,359
7,225
1,861
742
1,213
79,737
July
25,206
19,708
17,090
4,947
7,610
1,545
668
1,229
78,003

Trend

2003May
25,612
20,557
14,763
5,119
6,901
1,419
671
1,277
76,319
June
26,041
20,767
15,072
5,180
7,054
1,483
662
1,291
77,550
July
26,343
20,892
15,333
5,238
7,171
1,557
656
1,301
78,491
August
26,399
20,895
15,483
5,288
7,231
1,619
649
1,303
78,867
September
26,234
20,801
15,526
5,315
7,226
1,654
642
1,296
78,694
October
25,980
20,677
15,540
5,316
7,192
1,653
642
1,283
78,283
November
25,731
20,569
15,574
5,296
7,155
1,614
648
1,263
77,850
December
25,553
20,511
15,665
5,258
7,139
1,553
665
1,241
77,585
2004January
25,496
20,517
15,857
5,224
7,144
1,493
692
1,222
77,645
February
25,553
20,552
16,140
5,208
7,172
1,458
722
1,210
78,015
March
25,648
20,580
16,449
5,200
7,224
1,458
745
1,206
78,510
April
25,654
20,548
16,709
5,189
7,284
1,482
756
1,206
78,828
May
25,551
20,435
16,907
5,172
7,340
1,505
754
1,208
78,872
June
25,435
20,293
17,078
5,151
7,397
1,526
744
1,210
78,834
July
25,230
20,100
17,125
5,119
7,438
1,530
730
1,216
78,488


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