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8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jan 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/03/2004   
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January Key Figures

Jan 04
Dec 03 to Jan 04
$m
% change

Turnover at current prices
Trend estimates
15,809.5
0.5
Seasonally adjusted estimates
15,758.3
0.7



January Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES
  • The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in January 2004 compared with December 2003. This follows increases of 0.6% in December 2003 and 0.7% in November 2003.
  • The trend estimate increased in all states and territories. The largest increases were in South Australia, Queensland and Victoria.
  • Over the three months to January 2004 the trend estimate rose by $274m. Food retailing (+$105m), Hospitality and services (+$81m), Household good retailing (+$25m) and Other retailing (+$22m) showed the largest increases.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.7% in January 2004 compared with December 2003. This follows a decrease of 0.6% in December 2003 and an increase of 1.1% in November 2003.
  • The estimate of total turnover for January 2004 was 8.8% higher than January 2003.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, Australian turnover fell by 21.6% in January 2004 compared with December 2003. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) fell by 24.4%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) fell by 17.6%.
  • Australian turnover increased by 8.7% in January 2004 compared with January 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 7.9%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 9.7%.


Notes

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for January 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series
Estimate
Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)
15,751.8
146.4
Change from preceding month ($m)
-4,339.0
117.2
% change from preceding month (%)
-21.6
0.5


Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.


For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34, or contact Graham Phillips on 02 6252 5625.



Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.



Summary Commentary


INDUSTRY TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

Trend growth has been moderate for the past three months after five months of strong growth. After eight months of strong growth Recreational good retailing had weak growth in January 2004. Hospitality and services had moderate growth in January 2004 after seven months of strong growth. Department stores had moderate growth in January 2004 after being flat or in decline over the previous three months.

Graph: industry graphs_total retail


FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 12 months. The Australian Capital Territory has had moderate to strong growth in the last four months after 12 months of having weak growth or being in decline. Queensland and Tasmania both had moderate trend growth in January 2004 after a long period of strong growth. Victoria and Western Australia have had weak or no growth over the last six months.

Graph: industry graphs_food retailing


DEPARTMENT STORES

The trend growth was moderate in January 2004 after being flat or in decline in the previous three months. Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in this period, but all had growth in January 2004. New South Wales had strong growth in January 2004 after nine months of mostly weak growth.

Graph: industry graphs_department stores


CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate to strong trend growth over the last seven months. New South Wales and South Australia have had strong growth in the last five months while Victoria has had moderate growth. Tasmania has had moderate to strong growth in the last four months after mainly being flat or in decline for the previous 11 months.

Graph: industry graphs_clothing & soft good ret


HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth rate has been slowing since June 2003 with weak trend growth in January 2004. South Australia has had strong growth over the last five months. Western Australia had moderate trend growth in January 2004 after 15 months of strong growth. New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania were in decline in January 2004.

Graph: industry graphs_household good retailing


RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth rate has been slowing from strong trend growth in August 2003 to weak trend growth in January 2004. Queensland has the same pattern. Victoria has had strong growth in the last five months after having been in decline for 12 months. South Australia has had strong growth in the last five months after three months of being in decline. Western Australia has had strong trend growth over the last eight months. All other states were flat or in decline in January 2004.

Graph: industry graphs_recreational good retailing


OTHER RETAILING

Trend growth was strong for nine months to October 2003, but has been weak to moderate over the last three months. South Australia and Western Australia have had strong growth over the last four months and the Australian Capital Territory over the last five months. New South Wales has been in decline in the last two months and Victoria and Queensland were flat in January 2004.

Graph: industry graphs_other retaling


TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been below that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last six months.

Graph: industry graphs_total retail (excl hos)


HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been strong trend growth over the last eight months. Queensland has had strong trend growth in each of the last 12 months and Victoria has had strong growth over the last eight months. The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have been flat or in decline in each of the last six months and Tasmania over the last three months. Western Australia was in decline in January 2004.

Graph: industry graphs_hospitality & services



STATE TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

Trend growth was weak to moderate over the last three months after having been strong for the previous four months. Clothing and soft good retailing has shown strong trend growth over the last five months while Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline in the last two months.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_new south wales


VICTORIA

Trend growth has been moderate in the last three months. Hospitality and services has shown strong trend growth over the last eight months, while Other retailing was flat in January 2004 after a long period of mostly strong growth. Recreational good retailing has had strong trend growth in the last five months, but had been in decline since September 2002. Food retailing has had weak trend growth over the last eight months.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_victoria


QUEENSLAND

After strong trend growth for nine months,there was moderate trend growth in January 2004. Food retailing showed this same pattern of trend growth, while Recreational good retailing had weak trend growth in January 2004 after nine months of strong trend growth. Hospitality and services has had twelve months of strong trend growth.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_queensland


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend has shown strong growth in the last four months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have shown strong growth over the last five months and Other retailing over the last four months. Food retailing and Department stores showed moderate growth in January 2004.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_south australia


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

For the last six months there has been moderate trend growth. The trend growth for Household good retailing had been strong since October 2002, although the rate of growth has been slowing since July 2003 and became moderate in January 2004. Recreational good retailing has had strong growth for the last eight months. Hospitality and services was in decline in January 2004.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_western australia


TASMANIA

The trend growth has been weak to moderate for the last three months after seven months of strong growth. After eight months of strong trend growth, Food retailing has had moderate growth in January 2004. Clothing and soft good retailing has had moderate to strong growth in the last four months.

Graph: ppw8501 state graphs_tasmania
Abbreviations
ABNAustralian Business Number
ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics
ANZSICAustralian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification
ATOAustralian Taxation Office
n.e.c.not elsewhere classified
PAYGWpay-as-you-go withholding
RSErelative standard error
TAUtype of activity unit

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