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9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Sep 2003  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/10/2003   
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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


SEPTEMBER 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

A record high trend estimate of 80,416 for total sales of new motor vehicles was recorded for September 2003. The trend estimate has shown 11 months of continuous growth with a 1.0% increase in September 2003 compared with August 2003. This is less than the 1.4% increase recorded in August 2003 compared with July 2003.

Going against the national direction, the Northern Territory has recorded falls in the trend estimate for the sales of new motor vehicles for the past 6 months. For September 2003 the Northern Territory recorded a fall of 1.4% while the other states and the Australian Capital Territory all recorded increases. Trend growth was recorded above the national average by Queensland (1.7%), South Australia (1.8%), Western Australia (1.2%) and Tasmania (2.0%).

The trend estimate in the sales of passenger vehicles increased by 1.2% in September 2003 compared to August 2003. Other vehicles recorded a trend estimate increase of 0.6% over the same period.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates of total new motor vehicle sales rose from 79,316 in August 2003 to 81,079 (2.2%) in September 2003.


NOTES


DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1The October 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the September 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.
2The October 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the September 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

Graph - Trend revisions



The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.


SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Graph - New motor vehicle sales, total vehicles-long term


Graph - New motor vehicle sales, total vehicles - short term


Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)
Other vehicles (a) (No.)
Total vehicles (No.)
Change Passenger vehicles (%)
Change Other vehicles (%)
Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2002July
45,923
23,859
69,782
-6.5
-19.6
-11.4
August
45,122
24,525
69,647
-1.7
2.8
-0.2
September
43,396
22,638
66,034
-3.8
-7.7
-5.2
October
48,269
24,063
72,332
11.2
6.3
9.5
November
47,229
24,346
71,575
-2.2
1.2
-1.0
December
45,317
22,656
67,973
-4.0
-6.9
-5.0
2003January
40,015
21,155
61,170
-11.7
-6.6
-10.0
February
43,677
23,058
66,735
9.2
9.0
9.1
March
49,921
26,192
76,113
14.3
13.6
14.1
April
44,602
24,263
68,865
-10.7
-7.4
-9.5
May
49,646
28,616
78,262
11.3
17.9
13.6
June
57,086
34,972
92,058
15.0
22.2
17.6
July
51,450
28,071
79,521
-9.9
-19.7
-13.6
August
49,869
26,304
76,173
-3.1
-6.3
-4.2
September
51,749
26,042
77,791
3.8
-1.0
2.1

Seasonally Adjusted

2002July
44,390
24,048
68,438
-0.7
1.3
0.0
August
45,301
25,217
70,518
2.1
4.9
3.0
September
45,947
25,194
71,141
1.4
-0.1
0.9
October
45,791
24,955
70,746
-0.3
-0.9
-0.6
November
45,464
23,406
68,870
-0.7
-6.2
-2.7
December
41,865
20,783
62,648
-7.9
-11.2
-9.0
2003January
49,584
28,103
77,687
18.4
35.2
24.0
February
46,685
24,775
71,460
-5.8
-11.8
-8.0
March
47,875
25,032
72,907
2.5
1.0
2.0
April
48,507
26,090
74,597
1.3
4.2
2.3
May
50,185
27,164
77,349
3.5
4.1
3.7
June
50,132
27,198
77,330
-0.1
0.1
0.0
July
49,687
28,629
78,316
-0.9
5.3
1.3
August
51,866
27,450
79,316
4.4
-4.1
1.3
September
53,175
27,904
81,079
2.5
1.7
2.2

Trend

2002July
45,060
24,484
69,544
0.2
1.1
0.5
August
45,126
24,581
69,707
0.1
0.4
0.2
September
45,113
24,454
69,567
0.0
-0.5
-0.2
October
45,163
24,265
69,428
0.1
-0.8
-0.2
November
45,355
24,165
69,520
0.4
-0.4
0.1
December
45,724
24,235
69,959
0.8
0.3
0.6
2003January
46,332
24,512
70,844
1.3
1.1
1.3
February
47,132
25,035
72,167
1.7
2.1
1.9
March
47,983
25,710
73,693
1.8
2.7
2.1
April
48,774
26,357
75,131
1.6
2.5
2.0
May
49,455
26,861
76,316
1.4
1.9
1.6
June
50,097
27,262
77,359
1.3
1.5
1.4
July
50,835
27,662
78,497
1.5
1.5
1.5
August
51,609
28,015
79,624
1.5
1.3
1.4
September
52,220
28,196
80,416
1.2
0.6
1.0
(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.



Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration (a)

NSW (No.)
Vic. (No.)
Qld (No.)
SA (No.)
WA (No.)
Tas. (No.)
NT (No.)
ACT (No.)
Aust. (No.)

Original

2002July
24,643
18,721
13,462
4,457
5,562
1,174
579
1,184
69,782
August
23,456
18,942
13,516
4,537
6,102
1,311
597
1,186
69,647
September
22,236
18,765
12,497
4,187
5,493
1,239
507
1,110
66,034
October
24,618
20,185
13,456
4,499
6,627
1,203
580
1,164
72,332
November
24,349
19,829
13,224
4,641
6,320
1,398
628
1,186
71,575
December
21,741
19,706
12,672
4,531
5,989
1,584
585
1,165
67,973
2003January
20,648
16,490
11,632
3,988
5,762
1,025
534
1,091
61,170
February
21,965
18,152
12,956
4,754
6,164
1,069
582
1,093
66,735
March
25,541
20,408
14,843
5,147
6,917
1,218
769
1,270
76,113
April
23,588
18,368
13,386
4,507
5,948
1,177
728
1,163
68,865
May
26,259
21,053
14,967
5,273
7,127
1,454
789
1,340
78,262
June
31,168
24,132
18,084
6,089
8,662
1,549
866
1,508
92,058
July
26,983
21,248
15,716
5,298
6,973
1,407
635
1,261
79,521
August
25,391
19,799
15,248
5,263
7,048
1,589
555
1,280
76,173
September
25,738
21,200
15,293
5,222
6,894
1,639
593
1,212
77,791

Seasonally Adjusted

2002July
23,332
18,419
13,518
4,360
5,904
1,210
586
1,109
68,438
August
24,094
18,986
13,768
4,427
6,190
1,256
617
1,180
70,518
September
23,778
19,665
13,771
4,581
6,154
1,292
596
1,304
71,141
October
24,025
19,026
13,887
4,434
6,434
1,225
588
1,127
70,746
November
23,130
19,251
12,847
4,426
6,192
1,289
617
1,118
68,870
December
20,809
17,721
11,628
4,138
5,564
1,080
611
1,097
62,648
2003January
26,458
21,064
14,557
5,236
6,981
1,359
673
1,359
77,687
February
23,770
19,372
13,648
5,110
6,444
1,271
674
1,171
71,460
March
24,007
20,083
14,169
4,952
6,459
1,308
718
1,211
72,907
April
25,777
19,695
14,567
5,044
6,203
1,333
706
1,272
74,597
May
25,698
21,106
15,000
5,058
7,089
1,435
697
1,266
77,349
June
25,969
21,134
14,169
5,062
7,468
1,520
660
1,348
77,330
July
25,724
20,866
16,064
5,178
7,201
1,467
636
1,180
78,316
August
26,916
20,469
15,938
5,373
7,193
1,558
592
1,277
79,316
September
26,924
21,452
16,166
5,530
7,375
1,589
682
1,361
81,079

Trend

2002July
23,878
18,779
13,283
4,419
6,126
1,267
611
1,181
69,544
August
23,737
18,919
13,443
4,418
6,144
1,261
604
1,181
69,707
September
23,535
18,998
13,439
4,417
6,155
1,248
599
1,176
69,567
October
23,379
19,081
13,335
4,444
6,180
1,237
601
1,171
69,428
November
23,348
19,176
13,233
4,524
6,217
1,233
613
1,176
69,520
December
23,468
19,289
13,246
4,649
6,254
1,236
634
1,183
69,959
2003January
23,770
19,461
13,405
4,793
6,307
1,251
659
1,198
70,844
February
24,219
19,733
13,711
4,923
6,400
1,279
682
1,220
72,167
March
24,732
20,056
14,083
5,016
6,547
1,320
696
1,243
73,693
April
25,203
20,353
14,463
5,067
6,724
1,369
694
1,258
75,131
May
25,580
20,575
14,797
5,096
6,904
1,419
682
1,263
76,316
June
25,895
20,746
15,110
5,140
7,067
1,465
666
1,270
77,359
July
26,243
20,913
15,462
5,220
7,219
1,508
651
1,281
78,497
August
26,598
21,071
15,814
5,315
7,344
1,548
640
1,294
79,624
September
26,834
21,147
16,084
5,409
7,429
1,579
631
1,303
80,416
(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.


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