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8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Jan 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/03/2004   
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January Key Figures

Jan 04
Dec 03 to Jan 04
Jan 03 to Jan 04
no.
% change
% change

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,940
-1.0
10.6
Total dwelling units
14,419
-2.1
2.0

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses
9,638
-4.4
5.9
Total dwelling units
14,048
-3.3
-2.8

Dwelling units approved, Total number
Graph: Dwelling units approved, Total number

Private sector houses approved, Total number
Graph: Private sector houses approved, Total number

January Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 2.1% in January 2004, following falls in the previous three months.
  • The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.0% in January 2004. The trend has now fallen for five consecutive months.
  • The trend estimate for other dwellings approved fell 4.9% in January 2004, the fourth consecutive monthly fall.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 3.3%, to 14,048, in January 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 4.4%, to 9,638, in January 2004.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved rose 2.4%, to 4,282, in January 2004. This was driven by a large rise in Victoria.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 2.5%, to $4,421.0 million. Residential building fell 1.6%, to $2,854.4 million, with a 0.2% rise in new residential being offset by an 11.3% fall in alterations and additions. The value of non-residential building rose 11.0%, to $1,566.6 million.


Notes


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Commencing from this issue, a new Appendix (from page 38) lists electronic tables, data cubes and excel tables available from the ABS website and Ausstats.


REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:
2002-03
2003-04
TOTAL

New South Wales
33
54
87
Victoria
-
112
112
Queensland
43
74
117
South Australia
-25
16
-9
Western Australia
5
13
18
Tasmania
-
10
10
Northern Territory
-
45
45
Australian Capital Territory
-
-
-
TOTAL
56
324
380

DATA NOTES

There are no notes about the data.


Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.


Summary Commentary


VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has fallen for the last four months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 0.5% in January 2004.

Graph: New residential building, value approved


ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last four months, following ten months of growth. The trend fell 1.4% in January 2004.

Graph: Alterations and additions, value approved


NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last six months. The trend fell 0.5% in January 2004.

Graph: Non-residential building, value approved



DWELLINGS APPROVED

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved has fallen for the last four months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 2.1% in January 2004.

Graph: Total dwelling units approved


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last five months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 1.0% in January 2004.

Graph: Private sector houses approved


OTHER DWELLINGS

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved has fallen for the last four months. The trend fell 4.9% in January 2004.

Graph: Other dwellings approved



DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 2.1% in January 2004. The trend was flat in Victoria, and fell in all other states and territories except the NorthernTerritory (+2.1%).


The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.0% in January 2004. The trend fell in all states except Queensland (+0.5%).

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Aust.

Original

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,395
2,208
2,100
474
1,289
176
21
68
7,731
Total dwelling units (no.)
2,710
3,644
2,941
692
1,551
198
72
114
11,922
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-29.7
-13.5
-12.2
-38.5
-22.0
-9.7
-43.2
-29.2
-20.1
Total dwelling units (%)
-30.7
10.5
-9.4
-41.9
-19.5
-13.5
-20.0
-20.8
-15.1

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,651
2,920
2,617
603
1,522
na
na
na
9,638
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,315
4,087
3,490
879
1,784
230
na
na
14,048
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-17.7
10.6
-1.6
-24.1
-8.3
na
na
na
-4.4
Total dwelling units (%)
-12.8
14.5
-2.1
-19.5
-12.9
6.3
na
na
-3.3

Trend

Dwelling units approved
Private sector houses (no.)
1,842
2,825
2,618
692
1,626
na
na
na
9,940
Total dwelling units (no.)
3,488
3,918
3,521
926
1,988
230
103
139
14,419
Percentage change from previous month
Private sector houses (%)
-2.6
-1.3
0.5
-2.6
-0.5
na
na
na
-1.0
Total dwelling units (%)
-3.5
-
-2.0
-1.4
-1.6
-2.0
2.1
-3.5
-2.1

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - State Trends

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has fallen for the last five months, following four months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved, NSW


VICTORIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Victoria was flat in January 2004, following four months of decline. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved, Vic


QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last four months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has risen for the last twelve months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved, Qld


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last four months, following five months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved, SA


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has fallen for the last two months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last two months.

Graph: Dwelling units approved, WA

What If...? Revisions to Trend Estimates


Effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on trend estimates


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.


The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the February seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the January estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the February seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the January estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.


PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

Graph: Private sector houses approved

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 4% on Jan 2004
(2) falls by 4% on Jan 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
September
10,370
-0.1
10,384
-0.1
10,408
-
October
10,280
-0.9
10,285
-1.0
10,296
-1.1
November
10,168
-1.1
10,164
-1.2
10,133
-1.6
December
10,039
-1.3
10,054
-1.1
9,951
-1.8
2004
January
9,940
-1.0
9,957
-1.0
9,763
-1.9
February
-
-
9,870
-0.9
9,578
-1.9

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
OTHER DWELLINGS
Graph: Other dwellings approved
WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
TREND AS PUBLISHED
(1) rises by 13% on Jan 2004
(2) falls by 13% on Jan 2004
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change

2003
September
4,933
1.1
4,927
1.1
4,965
1.5
October
4,872
-1.2
4,881
-0.9
4,900
-1.3
November
4,713
-3.3
4,744
-2.8
4,694
-4.2
December
4,524
-4.0
4,599
-3.1
4,434
-5.5
2004
January
4,301
-4.9
4,481
-2.6
4,170
-6.0
February
-
-
4,422
-1.3
3,953
-5.2

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

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